AWAITING DONALD TRUMP'S SECOND PRESIDENCY

 

The following OpEd has been written by my friend Dr Lim Teck Ghee PhD. I have truncated and edited the long article for brevity. You can read the original article in full here 

By Lim Teck Ghee

Those following the U.S. Republican presidential race will have noted from the voter polls that the issue of foreign affairs ranks amongst the lowest or is the lowest of the priority concerns that the American public sees as critical to themselves and their country. A variety of polls held before the recently concluded nomination battles in Iowa and New Hampshire revealed that less than 10% of the supporters of the main candidates identified foreign policy as their major concern.

Not surprisingly, domestic concerns related to the economy, jobs, cost of living and inflation rank highest for Republican and Democratic Party supporters. Young voters who may be the key deciding group on Election Day, November are expected to focus on issues rather than candidates.

Why US voters’ attention is focused on domestic issues related to the condition of the American home order rather than to the state of the international order that incumbent President Biden and the US dominated MIM (military-industrial-media) complex would like to see preoccupy and be dominant in the minds of the American and international public is not difficult to understand. 

American Society and Politics in Disarray

Ordinary Americans – especially during Biden’s administration – have seen their everyday lives intruded upon and consumed by differences over immigration, abortion, crime in cities, racial bigotry, woke ideology, LGBTQ+, culture fights, fentanyl and opioid related addiction concerns – and a related range of economic issues – that appear unresolvable and never ending. The bad news on these dominate the headlines and media coverage together with .. the spotlight on Biden’s alleged corruption and son’s court cases.

On the political front, the US is seen by many American and foreign analysts to have been in democratic decline now. According to the Economist, the United States now ranks not among the world’s “full democracies” but among the “flawed democracies” (such as Greece, Israel, Poland, and Brazil).

It is likely that the US political division and free for all that the world sees and the inability of American leadership to tackle and resolve the country’s existential socio-economic and political problems will continue. The incumbent president has failed to inspire confidence in handling of the myriad challenges on the domestic and international front that the US faces.  

According to a Pew poll in April 2023 (under Biden), more Americans were very or somewhat pessimistic of the nation’s future in the following areas, with the first two areas having a majority of respondents expressing pessimism:  

    Moral and ethical standards (63%)
    System of education (59%)
    Ability to ensure racial equality for all people (44%)
    Ability of the U.S. to get along with other countries of the world (41%)
    Institution of marriage and family (40%)  

Given the current disorder in American society and the hollowness of its advocacy of democracy and human rights, can the outcome of the 2024 election bring about change in US foreign policy and the global international order in which the US has set itself up as judge, jury, policeman and sheriff?

U.S. Foreign Policy Going Forward Impact

The great majority of Americans want their president to prioritise the deep seated domestic problems of the country. We have seen Biden start off his current administration with the tagline “America is back” to emphasise that his mission is to reassert American leadership of the world and to repair the damage done to U.S. global standing.

As his domestic problems have multiplied, Biden has retreated to a lower profile foreign policy for the US and a reliance on American allies in Europe and the Pacific to pay the bill to support American hegemony and fly the US flag. This lower profile role is also in part driven by diminishing financial resources. The Biden administration ran a $1.695 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2023. It was the third-largest deficit in US history. 

An even lower profile, less adventurous, more non-interventionist US foreign policy execution can be expected of Trump. Trump’s second term is likely to see him pursue more non-interventionist foreign policies.  According to a report drawing on feedback from a large group of current and former aides and diplomats, the election result would enable Trump to make sweeping changes to the U.S. stance on issues ranging from the Ukraine and Middle East wars to trade with China, as well as to the federal institutions that implement foreign policy.

Under a Trump presidency the allies and deputy sheriffs of American foreign policy in Asia, Europe and the Middle East will need to prepare for the reality of a new world order in which the urgency of taking on America First domestic concerns will see a different Pax Americana emerge. 

It will also see the interests and concerns of allied countries sidelined, marginalised or sacrificed. 

Australia A Major Loser

Among the major losers of the coming U.S. presidential election could be the following countries:

    Australia
    Japan
    Taiwan
    Philippines
    Ukraine
    United Kingdom
    European Union
   
Likely winners  will be the group of BRICS advocating a new international order based on a system of global governance that is more inclusive and egalitarian.

The advance of a multipolar world order that more accurately represents the objectives and ambitions of developing nations could, in the long run, paradoxically help the U.S. towards more progressive and constructive outcomes at home and abroad.  

The Western MIM will resist this but we are at a time in history when the old rules, benchmarks and tools of analysis do not work.

My Comments: 

I hope that on November 5th, 2024 Donald Trump wins the elections with a landslide majority. This is not an impossible scenario considering that Trump has maintained a widening lead over Biden in the polls.

from 5 days ago — The poll of 1250 US adults showed Trump leading Biden 40% to 34%

Sadly President Trump was beaten by the Covid Pandemic. If there was no Covid he would be finishing his second term in office. In his first term President Trump did not start any new wars. Nor did any new wars get started under his tenure. No Ukraine, no Gaza, no Sudan (which is now in deep shit). Trump became the first American president to set foot in North Korea. If Trump wins a second term it is not impossible that Kim Jong Un will visit the United States of America. Trump has promised that he can end the Ukraine War in 24 hours.

The biggest problems around the world are the screwed up countries. Who also happen to be Muslim countries - with few exceptions like Myanmar, the Congo, Nigeria and Eritrea. The Muslim countries are spinning out of control again. Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran will continue to be in the news for all the wrong reasons. As strange as it may sound, this time around the US and the West may not care anymore about Pakistan or Afghanistan.

Since Obama (who became president almost 16 years ago) the US has become an oil exporting nation. They do not need Middle East oil anymore. The Middle East will have to find new bouncers to keep the peace among themselves.  That just aint going to happen. These folks are really messed up.

I hope that when Trump becomes president again he will push America to be really competitive - minus the piracy and stealing. No more stealing Iraqi oil or Syrian oil. If you want something you pay a fair price for it - just like everyone else. No more stealing other peoples' lunches.

America simply cannot afford to look at China as an enemy. That will really hasten the end of America. The US should look at China as a first class competitor against whom America really has little chance of winning. What will it take for America to compete with China? Should America become a one-party system like China? Should America ban political parties and just elect one president who CANNOT  have any party affiliations? 

America will need to make drastic changes if they want to stay relevant even to themselves.  Trump will likely keep the peace around the world. But can he win the peace in America.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.