GROUND WAR IN LEBANON IMMINENT, IRAN OFFICIALLY ABANDONS HEZBOLLAH

 The BBC has just announced (1:10 am 1st Oct 2024) that the United States has confirmed that they have been notified by Israel of a "limited" ground incursion into Lebanon.  Other news outlets report that Israeli special forces have already entered Lebanon to neutralise Hezbollah tunnels along the Israel - Lebanon border. 

Here is a brief video:  

The Iranians have made it plain that they will NOT BE SENDING ANY TROOPS to fight with either Hezbollah or the Hamas. As you can hear, that is the official statement by the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

What this means is that the ayatollahs have sold Hezbollah down the river. The ayatollahs have abandoned Hezbollah. And it is also an insult added to injury for Hamas who have already had their butts kicked around for the past 11 months.

There is also serious friction developing between the Hezbollah and Iran. Iran has announced today that the successor to Hassan Nasrullah shall be his cousin Hashem Safieddine (possibly Hashim Safiuddin).

However there already is a No. 2 guy in Hezbollah (who I did not know even existed) by the name of Naim Qassem (in the video above) who says that Hezbollah will choose a new leader according to Hezbollah's "approved selection mechanism". (They do not have elections, instead they have selection).  This means Naim Qassem does not agree with the Iranian "selection" of Hashem Safieddine without going through Hezbollah's own approved selection mechanism.

This is trouble indeed for Hezbollah especially on the eve of war with Israel. All of Hezbollah's existence from all their funding, all their weaponry, all their ammunition and rockets, even their food and clothing are supplied 100% by the ayatollahs in Iran.  Hezbollah has no other source of funding or support for their survival. Not just Hezbollah but almost all the Shia population in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley live off some form of financial support from Iran.

I have mentioned before that the Israelis are planning a quick Six Day War type of campaign. Their goal will be the Litani River which is about 18 miles or 29 km into Lebanon from the Israeli border. The Israelis want the United Nations to enforce UN Resolution 1701 which was passed by the UN in 2006. 

[The Security Council] calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution based on the following principles and elements:…the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon.

The Israelis have disarmed both Hezbollah and the Iranian ayatollahs even before any ground campaign begins.   Lets see what happens. 

p.s. Some observers say that immediately after Hassan Nasrallah was killed on Friday, Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei  was quickly spirited away to a safe house not inside Iran but just across the border inside Iraq. But Iraq is closer to Israel. They are not afraid of Israel. They are afraid of internal dissent from within the ayatollahs circles in Iran. I have also said before, this is the Middle East. From time to time these people do lose their heads.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.