In fatigue mood

by Dr Hsu  

When will be the General Election?

This question has been asked many times, and many hints were dropped but each times we only hear the sounds of the stairs but each time, the likely date came and passed without election being called.

This can only mean one thing. The person who holds the power to call the Election is not sure of a good win.

That person is of course the Prime Minister. He has to his disposal intelligence reports from the police, army, information department and his members on the ground. Though this sort of intelligence has its shortcoming, as in 2008 when no one (from  intelligence received) actually believed that opposition could win so many states, it is still one of the main influences that the Top has to take into consideration, since in the past, it has served as good indicators as to the mood of the electorates.

As I have said, the delay in calling the election can only mean one thing. PM is not sure of a good win. Without a good win, even if his team wins again, his own future is doomed. That must have weighed heavily in his considerations to let the many windows of opportunities slipped past.

The seats held by some of the component parties, such as mCA and Gerakan, are the main worries. Many members of both parties have become inactive and this has weakened considerably the election machinery of both parties, especially in the urban and semi urban seats.

That is why, instead of relying on these parties to win votes,  PM has adopted a presidential style of campaigning to reach out to the urban electorates. He would have succeeded in gaining more, if not for the scandals like NFC.

Even some of the issues that were considered part of Big Brother’s sacred duty to protect (members of UMNo like to talk about ‘struggle’), like education, were being liberated, albeit not systematically.

In order to appease the Chinese community, one Chinese independent school was approved to be built in Kuantan. Even though there were certain clauses in the approval letter that have given rise to some suspicions, it is still a big concession made to the Chinese educationists, a concession that would not be possible if not for the weak position of the Big Brother.

 AMidst all these, and the economy that is apparently doing well, and the hints by the Top Leader of the significance of 11,  many now believe that GE will be called in November, the last window period this year.

I believe party members of both sides are now really in fatigue mood. Just like the boy who cries wolf, after  many wolf calls, many on the ground would have felt so tired that they would not bother to go up the mountain to help the boy, so to speak.  Each time a window period appears, the ground members are mobilised, adrenalin flowed, only to have that window lapsed without anything happening, and adrenalin ebbing again and again. This spiking and ebbing of adrenalin would have made anyone tired and lose interest.

Coming back to the economy, is it really doing well? I suppose it is in better shape than many European countries. But many people on the ground , especially in the retail sector, complain that business is actually slow and times are tough. Many working people are complaining of diminishing disposable income, all these in relative to the perennial increase in food prices..

Hawker food is now in the region of RM 5.50 in coffee shop and RM 8 and above in the so-called Kopitiams and cafe. A simple hawker meal would have set a person back for at east RM10.

The political situation is fluid. BN may have a slight advantage being the incumbents, but PR has a real fighting chance to win.

Times could be even worse at end of the year or beginning of next, so November may likely be the last best date for BN to go into battle.