NEUTRALISING MAHATHIR: Best bet for Najib an Interim Govt with the Opposition

It is not impossible for Prime Minister Najib Razak, who clearly has his back to the wall, to U-turn on his broad hint of a November 2012 general election.

Many of his inner circle of advisers have suggested he should allow Parliament to expire automatically on April 29 next year. Any other option would be fraught with grave risks for Najib, they believe.

That may well be true and a lot is at stake for the eldest son of the country's second prime minister. But whatever Najib's final decision, should he plumb for the safest course, then the 13th General Election can be delayed until May/June next year. Polls need only be called within two months after Parliament is dissolved.

The fight for UMNO

May/June 2013 polls would be the best possible option for Najib given the growing opposition against him from within Umno engineered by Muhyiddin Yassin, his deputy, who has suddenly dropped out from the limelight in the mainstream media, state-owned TV stations and TV3. Muhyiddin is being quietly backed by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and his family.

Much of the Muhyiddin/Mahathir opposition to Najib stems from the latter’s plans to more than cut down their influence in Umno and the Government. Nowhere is this more evident than in the list of Umno candidates drawn up for the GE, according to the political grapevine. Najib’s and Hishammuddin’s people dominate the slate of candidates.

One result has been Mahathir’s decision to hold back from funding the Najib/Hishammuddin camp for the GE. Mahathir has a formidable war chest built up from his own considerable resources as well as contributions from crony capitalists he nurtured during his long innings, 22 years, in power.

Najib, however, cannot delay national polls until May/June next year without the backing of the Opposition, the Pakatan Rakyat in particular. The Opposition would take to the streets in record numbers, especially in Peninsular Malaysia, should the GE be delayed without a clearly stated course of alternative action that included their participation.

Interim Government can come after the National Budget

The Opposition may however be persuaded to drop its opposition, so to speak, to polling in May/June next year if the Prime Minister includes it in an Interim Government formed after presenting the National Budget on Sept 28. The Opposition would find it extremely impossible, politically, to spurn any invitation to participate in an Interim Government.

Now, an Interim Government is not a wild speculation at all, but among the feasible possibilities open to Najib and discussed behind closed doors amongst the most powerful in Malaysia's political arena on both sides of the divide.

The Opposition may be more inclined to participate in a Caretaker Government formed after Parliament is allowed to expire without dissolution. In fact, it’s only right and proper that the Caretaker Government include the Opposition no matter when the GE is held.

However, it’s not a tradition in Malaysia to include the Opposition in a Caretaker Government. Hence, it’s either the Interim Government to give it a preview of Putrajaya or no deal for the Opposition.

An Interim Government would at the same time enable Najib to deal with his many foes in Umno and neutralise Mahathir once and for all. The more that Mahathir opens his mouth, the worse that Umno/BN is likely to do in the polls. Mahathir has even been featured in a TV plug, Saya Pilih Malaysia, where a vote is shown as a “right” or “pass” sign and not the usual X. The plug is virtually a call to the people to spoil their votes.

Armed Forces should be kept out of politics

An Interim Government would at the same time allay public suspicions that Umno/BN has no plans to hand-over power peacefully should it be trounced by the Opposition at the 13th GE. There’s that unfortunate incident where Najib had been overhead reportedly urging the armed forces to be ready to step in should Umno/BN crash out at the 13th GE.

An Interim Government would be an opportunity to introduce a new political culture whereby while the majority – in Parliament – has the right to rule, the majority – the 49 per cent or collectively more than 50 per cent losing votes in a seat – would have the right to be heard.

This is a win-win formula where the quarrelsome politicians across the divide can get together even after a bruising GE.

This would reduce the politicking, the political temperature in the country, and enable the people to get on with their lives quietly.

An Interim Government would not be a coalition Government, like the Barisan Nasional, by any stretch of the imagination. It would face the polls with both sides of the political divide intact.

It would STILL be a free for all for both Umno/BN and the Opposition come the 13th GE. However, much of the Opposition venom is likely to be reserved for the Muhyiddin/Mahathir camp although Najib and Hishammuddin can expect a pasting too during the campaign in the run-up to the polls.

Anwar may yet get his old job back

Should the Interim Government be formed, as many experts have proposed, after the National Budget session later this month, the post of Deputy Prime Minister must be offered to the Opposition.

Anwar Ibrahim, the de facto PR leader, may yet get his old job back in Government. Then, it would seem like that it was only yesterday that he was sacked as Deputy Prime Minister by Mahathir who was committed to bailing out his cronies in the wake of the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis.

It would not be the done thing for Umno to hog both the Prime Minister’s post and that of the Deputy Prime Minister.

In any case, it high time for the plodding Muhyiddin to call it quits from politics rather than continue to be led by the nose by Mahathir.

There’s nothing to prevent whoever wins Putrajaya at the 13th GE from reserving certain Cabinet positions for the Opposition.

In that sense, such a Government would be more of a Government of National Unity rather than a coalition government. Both the majority in Parliament and the Opposition would be seated opposite each other in the august House, so fears of a lack of check and balance need not arise.

Minority Government cannot be ruled out

Looking ahead, one difficulty is whether Umno would still continue to claim the Prime Minister’s post after the 13th GE, even with BN having less than 112 of the seats in Parliament.

This would come about if Umno tells the King that unlike BN, PR is not a registered association and so cannot claim that their numbers in Parliament should be tallied as belonging to one group to enable them to stake a claim to the Prime Minister’s post.

In that case, there would be no Government of National Unity and Umno/BN can only form a Minority Government which would fall if the Speaker eschews delaying tactics and allows the introduction of a no confidence motion.

Najib’s best bet is an alliance with the Opposition. It would be foolish of him to put all the eggs in one basket – Umno/BN – and continue to remain at the mercy of the diabolical duo of Muhyiddin/Mahathir.

Malaysia Chronicle