BN can win in Tenang.

What will people make of the refusal of the PAS candidate refusing to shake hands with menfolk in Tenang? She may have the vision, analytical skills, imagination and all that. But does she have a sense of reality? Is she displaying a sense of pompous piety? Really, will shaking hands with menfolk in public in front of many, compromised her religious beliefs and will drive menfolk into sexual frenzy?

Will the absence of the sense of reality diminish her capacity to serve as ADUN? Her refusal to shake hands will be read as lack of pragmatism and sense of reality. Not good qualities to be without in an ADUN.

The fact sheet about Tenang is as follows. Tenang has 14,753 registered voters comprising 7,014 Malays (47.5%), 5,766 Chinese (39%), 1,780 Indians (12%) and other races (1.5%). There are 18 postal voters.

Most of the Malays in Tenang are involved in agriculture. 3000 of them lived in Felda settlements. By and large, Felda settlers should be unmoved by side issues. Like others they are conscious and aware of the evils of corruption. They do read in between the lines. The question is will this concern be big enough to translate into votes against BN? Probably the people in Tenang have a live and let live attitude. It's not commendable, but that's how it is.

Like many of us, Felda settlers are resigned to the fact that corruption isn't easy to abolish and proven in court. Energy and resources would be wasted. Settlers are more concerned about bread and butter issues. Will they be getting their land titles? Will the good palm oil price persevere? Will the community get social amenities and facilities? Can their children have access to educational facilities? If the PM comes and says there's cash to be given around, they will gladly accept the money. Who doesn't with school going children and a host of expenses to be met at the beginning of the year?

As to the corruption, they will support those public spirited souls who continue to expose the shenanigans of those in power. Like I said, corruption is an important issue but the difficulty is to establish the relevance of such an issue in Tenang in a by election. How far has the alleged pervasive corruption affected their lives? If the PR can establish a direct link between this issue and the interests of the Tenang people, they can win support and votes.

Hence the issues such as corruption will be interesting to hear, clapped and jeered at. But I fear it will not be enough to sway voters.

Will the opposition inspired ANAK be a force in Tenang? The issues raised by Anak concerning deceitful pricing of FFB (that's fresh fruit bunches) and others are contestable in court. That can be easily demonstrated as the presence of avenues for settlers to settle grievances. As settlers have won several cases, these facts can be adduced as evidence that, what the Felda Corporation people connived were not done with government's complicity. So I would say, ANAK's ability to influence the majority of felda settlers will not be as great as to sway voters away.

What about the 4000 or so Malay non settlers? They work as traders, educationists and general workers. What are the issues that interest them?

What do UMNO and PR represent? That's what interests them. Which way they go will depend on the ability of any one party that is better able manage the demand between Malay issues and how far these issues can be and are compromised. That would depend on the ability to assuage the feelings and assurance given that Malay concerns will not be compromised. Religion, language, kings and so forth.

Who gets the votes will likely depend on which party is perceived to have given up more than necessary.

I suspect, people will be asking to evaluate as between Najib Tun Razak and Anwar Ibrahim, who have compromised Malay issues more? Then, as between them, who is better able to assure Malays that their interests will be protected. Urban Chinese will also evaluate who between the two is better able to mollify Chinese apprehensions.

I called a Chinese businessman friend whose home is in Segamat. I asked him who he thinks will win. He answers without missing a beat- BN gerenti menang!. Menang in Tenang.

Almost 40% of the voters are Chinese mostly engaged in trading and mercantile activities. As long as they make money or the environment within which they can make money is all right, Chinese are ok. They are indifferent as to who governs. Will the climate be good to allow making money? They will be looking at who between BN and PR are able to inspire confidence.

The Indians who are relative poorer community requires nothing but immediate relief. Bring relief, and the Indians will be won over. There's nothing demeaning in this attitude, but they like others, will be looking out for their immediate interests first.

This by election is not about finding who between the candidates are pristine and pure in their religious beliefs. If that is the case, then the PAS candidate displaying a very public sense of piety by refusing to shake hands with menfolk can easily win. By the way, is this an indication that people in Tenang are a bunch of horny hordes that the slightest touch of the human flesh with the opposite sex will trigger sexual urges that are uncontrollable? What are they eating?

People will be looking at pragmatism here. To me, it is ironic that a dose of pragmatic balance between demands of religious edicts with practical aspects of human interaction during the course of work becomes the deciding factor in the election in Tenang. Will the people in Tenang be willing to live with an ADUN who wears gloves all the time to allow her to shake hands with all and sundry?