Stars bright for BN in Tenang

Pakatan Rakyat will have a hard time convincing the voters of Tenang that there is a need for change.

TENANG: From the infamous man-eating python, to the communist insurgency and being the historic landing spot of Indonesian commandos during the Confrontation era, Tenang had its fair share of the limelight.

And for the next week, this semi-rural plantation town, with a population of less than 15,000, will once again be in the news as it will serve to chart Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s future plan.

It is said that the Tenang by-election will determine if Najib will call for a snap general election, his first since becoming prime minister in April 2009.

Agriculture is Tenang’s main income. Situated central north of Johor, most of its landscape is shaped by rubber and oil palm plantations owned by major conglomerates like Sime Darby.

Most of the 9,000 ethnic Malays who form Tenang’s biggest electorate rely on agriculture, and the rise in commodity prices have placed them up there with other professional middle-income earners.

This includes the Federal Land Reserve Authority (Felda) settlers. Johor Felda settlers are among the highest earners compared to Felda settlers in other states.

Properties are booming here. A drive around the three Felda estates (Felda Tenang, Cempelak and Cempelak Tengah) reveal a string of bungalows erected amid a few wooden houses.

Meanwhile, the Chinese, who form some 39% of the electorate, are either smallholders or owners of modest mercantile businesses, with many residing and trading in the outskirts of Tenang.

Indians form 12% of the electorate, standing the lowest in the income hierarchy although this does not necessarily translate into hardcore poverty.

Omens are good for BN

For Najib, who will be seeking to double the majority garnered by the late Sulaiman Taha from Umno in the 2008 election to more than 5,000 votes, the omens are good.

Furthermore, Barisan Nasional has never lost the seat since 1991 and Johor remains impenetrable for the opposition.

Unlike their urban counterparts who often tend to lean towards the opposition as the income bracket rises, the middle-class privileges enjoyed by the locals in Tenang will be one of Najib’s major advantages in the by-election.

Rivals Pakatan Rakyat is expected have a difficult time convincing the voters here that there is a need for change. National issues like inflation, price hikes and institutional reforms are unlikely to swing votes.

Despite this, leaders from the opposition coalition remain optimistic, saying they have a fighting chance. A further reduction in BN’s majority is already a significant victory.

Should this happen, it will signal a shift in voting trends. Income and purchasing power may no longer influence how votes are cast. But until that day comes, the formula to win votes remains the same. - FMT