PISA maths slide puts Malaysia’s 2030 talent target at risk, warns INSAP

 

MALAYSIA’S 2030 target of matching international average education performance is at risk unless the government urgently strengthens how it measures and develops student achievement, according to the Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (INSAP).

INSAP chairman Datuk Dr Pamela Yong said the OECD’s PISA 2025 country note showed Malaysia’s mathematics performance had continued to deteriorate, arguing that the country’s talent ambitions could become increasingly difficult to achieve without immediate policy adjustments.

“Achieving the government’s own 2030 target is only possible if three instruments are put in place now,” she stated.

The OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) evaluates the reading, mathematics and science proficiency of 15-year-olds every three years.

Under the 13th Malaysia Plan, the government has set a target of bringing Malaysia’s PISA and TIMSS performance to the international average by 2030.

Malaysia scored 397 in mathematics, 393 in reading and 419 in science in PISA 2025. The mathematics score has fallen by 43 points since 2018 and is now below Malaysia’s first PISA participation score of 404 recorded in the 2009+ round administered in 2010.

According to the OECD, 65% of Malaysian students did not reach Level 2 in mathematics, the baseline for applying mathematical knowledge to everyday situations, compared with 35% across OECD countries. Only 0.6% reached Levels 5 and 6, compared with the OECD average of 8%.

Yong noted that the ministry’s own TIMSS 2023 analysis had already identified weaknesses in students’ mathematics foundations, but argued that subsequent reforms had not adequately addressed how progress would be measured.

She said INSAP had identified three design flaws in the current approach.

The first, she said, was the absence of an annual feedback mechanism to measure progress towards the 2030 target.

“The 2030 target itself will effectively be tested only once, by PISA 2029, with results released in 2030,” she said, adding that existing initiatives such as the Matriks Pembelajaran had yet to include a commitment to publish comparable national proficiency results.

Yong also questioned whether current reforms would reach the students who would actually sit for PISA 2029.

“The students who will be tested are in Year 6 and Form 1 today. Unless implementation is front-loaded for this cohort, it will reach them only after much of their secondary mathematics foundation has already been formed,” she said.

INSAP further argued that school performance targets had not been sufficiently linked to Malaysia’s broader  economic ambitions, particularly the National Semiconductor Strategy’s goal of producing 60,000 high-skilled engineers by 2030.

Yong noted that the PISA sample represented about 413,000 15-year-olds, but only around 2,500 students demonstrated the highest levels of mathematical proficiency measured by the assessment.

She also pointed to TalentCorp’s Critical Occupations List, which identifies engineering among Malaysia’s hard-to-fill occupations, saying industry feedback increasingly highlighted shortages of engineers capable of solving unfamiliar and complex problems.

“The deficit employers meet at 22 is already visible at 15,” she said.

At the same time, Yong argued that teacher shortages were unlikely to be the primary constraint.

Citing the OECD report, she said only 18% of Malaysian students attended schools reporting shortages of teaching staff, compared with 39% across OECD countries.

She also noted that neighbouring Thailand and the Philippines had recorded improvements within a single PISA cycle, suggesting meaningful progress remained possible.

To address the issue, INSAP proposed three measures.

The first is an annual national proficiency indicator beginning in 2027, incorporating sampled PISA-style questions into the Form Three Matriks Pembelajaran and publishing a comparable national proficiency estimate each year.

The second is a joint cohort pipeline report bringing together data from the Education Ministry, Higher Education Ministry, TalentCorp and the Investment, Trade and Industry Ministry to track students from secondary school through engineering education and employment against national workforce targets.

The third is cohort-sequenced implementation of the government’s mathematics transformation plan, with the first two years focusing resources on Year 6 to Form 2 students who will form the PISA 2029 cohort.

“Without these instruments, the 2030 target remains merely a statement of intent with no effective mechanism to track or deliver it,” Yong said. ‒  Focus Malaysia