Two-Third Majority – The Death Knell For All Future UMNO / Barisan Nasional Leaders

The 2008 General Election was a watershed election in more ways than one.

However, my focus in this analysis is the failure of the then Badawi-led

administration to retain its two-third majority in Parliament and the strategic

implications of that debacle. In addition, five state governments were captured by

the Opposition coalition of PKR-PAS-DAP.

Losing state governments in the past was not fatal to the political future of an

UMNO leader. Even if Badawi lost the five states in the 2008 General Election

but retained the two-third majority in Parliament, it would have been more difficult

to demand his ouster as leader of UMNO and the Barisan Nasional. The

perception of unchallenged Federal Power was and is pivotal in Malaysian

politics.

UMNO has been so dominant in government and past General Elections that

commanding a two-third majority in Parliament was synonymous with UMNO’s

unchallengeable power and authority. That is why till today, UMNO is shaken to

its very core when it could not retain the two-third majority in Parliament in the

2008 General Election. The delineation of the parliamentary constituencies in

Peninsular Malaysia is such that most of the constituencies have Malay /

Bumiputera majority which in the past literally guaranteed its dominance and

hence the ability to seize a two-third majority in Parliament.

Since independence, the Prime Minister must be the undisputed leader of UMNO

who is also the leader of the governing coalition (first the Alliance which was

subsequently succeeded by the Barisan Nasional). No UMNO politician can

claim the coveted prize of Prime-Ministership unless he can establish that he

commands the support of the Malay majority. And since UMNO in the past can

lay claim to represent the Malay majority, no one in UMNO can challenge the

right of the leader of UMNO to be the Prime Minister. To buttress the perceived

“inalienable right”, the attainment of two-third majority in Parliament was

paramount. Two-third majority = UMNO dominated coalition!

That fundamental equation can no longer be taken for granted post the 2008

General Election. This was the unpardonable sin committed by the Badawi-led

administration when they failed to retain the two-third majority in Parliament. The

Genie is out of the bottle, the Pandora Box has been opened!

This was a shattering blow to the confidence of the ruling coalition from which

they have yet to recover fully.

Another shock came in the form of the strategic alliance between previous

irreconcilable political foes – that of PAS and DAP and the psychological break through by PAS in winning the hearts and minds of the non-Muslim communities.

The psychological strangle-hold of UMNO over the non-Muslim communities that

PAS was synonymous with Islamic extremism was broken irreparably when

Malay extremism was perceived as the greater threat to peace and harmony.

This was in no small part the result of the blowback of the Bush regime’s crude

demonisation of Islam and the brutal torture of Muslim inmates in Guantanamo

Bay and other prisons in Iraq and Afghanistan. The crass labeling of Muslims as

religious fanatics was broadly viewed as Zionist Anglo-American propaganda.

The stoic and courageous resistance of Muslim inmates to brutal torture aroused

global sympathy. PAS members were generally perceived as not corrupt or less

corrupt than their counterparts in the ruling coalition and were more steadfast

ideologically and were not or less motivated by the pursuit of wealth or power.

This was remarkable considering that in the past similar attempts by Tengku

Razaleigh, the then leader of Semangat 46, to forge a broad opposition coalition

comprising of Semangat 46-PAS-DAP failed miserably.

This is the strategic dilemma facing the present Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib

Razak. In the event that he fails to reclaim the two-third majority in Parliament in

the next General Election (which many have speculated would be held soon, in

the first half of 2011), can he claim legitimacy as the undisputed leader, firstly of

the Malay majority and secondly of the ruling coalition?

Would Datuk Seri Najib Razak be ousted in like manner as Badawi in 2009?

The ambitious and eager claimants to the “political throne” can justifiably demand

that there cannot be any double standards – what is applicable to Badawi must

be applied to Datuk Seri Najib Razak, if UMNO is to avoid oblivion in the third

and final round i.e. the 14

th

General Election (assuming that the results of the

next General Election, the 13

th

is not a hung parliament).

To reclaim the two-third majority in the next General Election is much harder for

the Prime Minister. In spite of the many teething problems of the four state

governments under the control of the Opposition coalition, the resources of the

Opposition have been increased substantially.

Additionally, the Barisan Nasional is caught in a Catch-22!

The following “realities” must be apprised, no matter how distasteful:

1) The outcome of Anwar Sodomy II trial is totally irrelevant as far as the

majority of voters are concerned. A guilty verdict will not alter the

widely held perception that Anwar is innocent of the charge of

sodomising Saiful! Even today, many still believe that he is innocent of

the charge of sodomy committed against his driver, Azizan. The blame

for this state of affairs must fall squarely on the prosecution team and the manner in which the entire trial has been conducted. Even to the

Muslims (which consider sodomy unpardonable), the trial has been

perceived as a mockery of justice – pure theatrics. A guilty verdict will

not change the perceptions of the majority of the rakyat. An acquittal

merely confirms their long held belief and perception. A Catch-22

indeed!

Perceptions, perceptions – we are dealing with perceptions!

I am only the messenger – if anyone disagrees, please do your own

research and fact finding.

2) The Open Verdict of Teoh Beng Hock’s Inquest. It has reinforced the

perception that it could never have been a suicide. The fact that there

were also insufficient evidence in support of homicide at first blush

may seem favourable to the government and MACC, but on deeper

reflection is in fact detrimental. Assuming on the Revision Hearing, the

High Court ruled it was a suicide, it would raise the inevitable

conclusion that the deceased must have been driven to commit suicide

by the harsh interrogation conducted by the officers of MACC as he

was not the accused, but a witness. This is the current perception. If, in

the unlikely event, a verdict of homicide is established by the Court, it

merely confirms the worst fears of the family and the public. This is

another Catch-22 for the Prime Minister.

Perceptions, perceptions – we are dealing with perceptions!

I am only the messenger. Don’t kill the messenger!

3) The intense anti-corruption campaign has backfired! The AntiCorruption Agency has screwed up big time in the manner in which

certain cases have been conducted.

a) The charge of corruption against the former Menteri Besar of

Selangor for buying a huge mansion. It has been perceived as a

mere side-show of going after a “big gun” as well as a diversion

to the wide publicity concerning the Attorney-General’s Haj

pilgrimage with a personage linked to the Malaysian Airlines’

financial scandal. Additionally, it is the widely held view that

many Ministers and Menteri Besars have palatial residences and

since there are no corruption charges against them, this specific

charge against the former Menteri Besar of Selangor must be

because of political expediency.

Another Catch-22 perception.

b) The public disagreement and acrimony between Tan Sri Robert

Phang and Tan Sri Ramon Navaratnam over the conduct of the

Attorney-General has brought into question the integrity of the

Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC).

c) The charging of Tun Ling Leong Sik for misleading the Cabinet in

relation to the Port Klang financial scandal. Even though during

the MCA crisis the Chinese community may have negative views

of this Chinese leader, it is a tactical blunder to proffer such a

charge, as it has deepened the suspicions of the Chinese

community, that it was politically motivated whatever may be the

merits of the case. The $10 billion question asked by the public –

why charge the former Minister and not the entire ministerial

team that prepared all the relevant Cabinet papers, from the

Secretary-General downwards?

d) The interrogation of Teoh Beng Hock and his subsequent death

referred to earlier.

e) The perception of selective prosecutions for political

expediencies.

It cannot be emphasized enough that it is the perception of the public

that really matters. In highlighting the above issues, it does not mean

that I share the perceptions of the rakyat. But, as a political analyst, I

must confront reality as perceived by the people no matter how

distasteful and or unfounded. This is a Catch-22.

4) The strategic blunder of ousting Ong Tee Keat as President of MCA

within a year of the 2008 General Election and installing Chua Soi Lek

as the successor. It has been perceived that he had to pay the price of

being humiliated by such an abrupt ouster because he was willing to

take the heat for investigating the Port Klang financial fiasco and that

he was deemed too independent and not controllable by UMNO.

Damage control was already in place when the investigation was

transferred from his Ministry to the Cabinet under the direct

supervision of the Cabinet Secretary. Ong Tee Keat’s wings were

clipped, but that was not enough. He had to be ousted. Adding insult to

injury, the Powers that be put in place a successor that did not

command the support and respect of the Chinese community. This

reinforced the perception that a MCA leader must be useful to and

have the endorsement of UMNO. Any attempts to win the support of

the Chinese voters now will be seen as a belated tactical move for the

sake of the next General Election as opposed to a sincere effort to

make amends for the blunder, and this is notwithstanding recent generous financial assistance to Chinese medium schools. It is a

misunderstanding of the grass root Chinese psyche to assume that

increased government allocations towards Chinese medium schools

would turn the tide. Much work needs to be done!

5) During the Badawi administration, much hype was given to the

development corridors. Within a span of a year, the BN government

announced massive projects that were being approved and

implemented – RM100 billion worth of projects, was followed

immediately with RM40 billion projects, RM70 billion projects, RM11

billion projects etc., the amount in total exceeding the 9

th

Malaysian

Plan (RM200 Billion over 5 years)! No one at the grass root level took

notice, for they could not even comprehend RM10 million in their

lifetime. The inevitable conclusion was that the big tycoons are the

only beneficiaries – largesse for the super-rich and the well-connected!

Now, the monies to be allocated are in the trillions, to be exact RM 1.5

trillion over the period of the Economic Transformation Program. While

this effort is to be applauded, can anyone in the right mind assume and

believe for one second that the grass root voters can comprehend

such sums of money? It was almost a repeat performance of the

Badawi administration’s spin doctors. In the last nine months,

RMbillions worth of projects were announced as being approved and

or invested etc.

Perception – super-rich and the well-connected would be the

beneficiaries again. Another catch-22! Good intentions have not jived

with grass root supporters.

The target of US$15,000 per capita income was not taken seriously by

the grass root voters. To an economist, this economic measure is a

crude measure and never taken seriously. In fact, it is quite

meaningless. China is now the second largest economy in the world,

but its per capita income is below Malaysia and many other countries.

Singapore has a higher per capita, but there are more millionaires in

China than the entire population of Singapore, plus a few hundred US$

Billionaires.

A good effort and initiative turned negative because of too much hype

and public relations jargon and acronyms!

If you don’t like this message, go to the grass-roots and ask whether

they understand what ETP, EPP, NKEA, KPI, GTP etc. mean. And

when they are translated into the different languages and dialects in

the case of the Chinese community, we end up with a mouthful!The grass-roots don’t give a damn how it is done. Just deliver the

results – realistic results that are meaningful and comprehensible. But,

information overload of corporate hype and jargon jars the underlying

message. The only “Labs”, a noodle-seller, a mechanic or a farmer

understand is a school laboratory in which their sons and daughters

may attend if they qualify for the science stream and meet the quota

allocated.

6) Why is it that leading members of the Barisan Nasional keep putting

their feet into their mouths?

Take the example of the minister who questions the patriotism of the

non-Malays on account that there is low enrolment in the Armed

Forces.

What you read here will come as a shock to many Malays, for no nonMalay will say it out right.

But as the messenger, it is my unpleasant

duty and responsibility to say it out. Notwithstanding the historical

context and the then British neo-colonial agenda, it has always been

perceived by non-Malays (regardless of merits) that the Armed Forces

is racial – the backbone of the Armed Forces is and will be the Malay

Regiment. Of course we have the Air Force, the Navy and the

Territorial Army. But the perception persists!

History cannot be denied.

It has been estimated that 50,000 Chinese were massacred by the

Japanese when they resisted Japanese occupation of Malaya and

Singapore. Till today, many have questioned the exact figures as so

many disappeared without a trace when the Japanese Secret Police

took away for interrogation any Chinese between the ages of 18 and

50 suspected of being in the Resistance.

The Malayan Anti-Japanese Resistance fighters in Peninsular Malaya

and the Dalforce in Singapore (although mainly of communist

persuasion) were considered allies by the defeated British colonial

power at the material time, just as Stalin and Russia were

considered indispensable allies in opposing Hitler in Europe. The

British shamefully surrendered to the Japanese with hardly a fight, but

the Anti-Japanese Resistance and Dalforce, though outnumbered and

out-gunned continued the fight. Force 136 was established by the

British and inserted deep in the rear of the occupying Japanese forces

to coordinate the resistance by the local Anti-Japanese forces, the bulk

of which were Chinese. Such was the success of the Resistance

fighters, that after the defeat of the Axis powers, leading members

were invited to participate in the Victory Parade in London and bestowed various British awards such as MBEs (Member of the British

Empire) and OBEs (Order of the British Empire).

It is therefore an understatement to say that the comment by the said

Minister of the lack of patriotism on the part of non-Malays has struck a

raw nerve and will not be easily forgotten and or forgiven.

Do not shoot the messenger for clearing a bit of a blurred history of the

sacrifices of the Chinese community during the Japanese occupation

of the then Malaya.

No community can arrogate to themselves a monopoly of patriotism.

7) Hence, the noble effort of the Prime Minister in promoting the concept

of 1Malaysia will be an exercise in futility when history is blurred,

misperceptions are allowed to linger and bigotry formented by vested

interests across the political divided.

There are much more “realities” to be addressed, but if we fail to resolve the

above “perceived realities” as well as “entrenched realities”, it will be a hard

slog for the Barisan Nasional to reclaim the two-third majority. Already, there are

forces within the ruling party courted by foreign powers to step in place of the

current leader should he fail to reclaim the two-third majority.

In any event, should the two-third majority in Parliament be a sacrosanct

benchmark of future electoral success by a leader from UMNO, when the

premise for such a benchmark may no longer be relevant for the future of

Malaysia?

I appeal to all political leaders from the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat to

re-examine the premise of their political struggles if we are to succeed as a

united nation and avoid the path of national suicide taken by the leaders of what

was once a united Yugoslavia!

At this moment in time, I am not optimistic that the future bodes well for Malaysia.

I hope to be proven wrong, for the prospect of being right would be catastrophic.

courtesy of Matthias Chang