Barisan Nasional is facing a dip in popularity after the recent reduction in fuel subsidy, which led to a 20 sen increase in prices. Analysts say it is wrong to blame any particular ethnic group for the declining support, instead it should look deeper into its own shortcomings first. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, October 26, 2014.
Political analysts have rubbished Selangor Umno's claims that the Chinese were to blame for the declining support towards Barisan Nasional in the state, saying that the coalition should look deeper into its own shortcomings before taking a simplistic approach.
Merdeka Center executive director Ibrahim Suffian said the low support for BN was far from an ethnic one, pointing out the recent reduction in fuel subsidy, which led to a 20 sen increase in prices was a significant factor.
"The cut in fuel subsidy has a deep and lasting effect on voters. Studies done before the 12th and 13th general elections showed that such measures shift political support for the party," Ibrahim told The Malaysian Insider.
"Every time the government increases petrol prices, there is a reduction in the prime minister's popularity."
Ibrahim was commenting on a Selangor Umno leader's contention that the Chinese were behind a movement to spread hatred towards BN which had resulted in the community's decline in support for the coalition.
Responding to the findings of the latest Universiti Malaya Centre for Democracy and Election (UMcedel) survey, Selangor Umno deputy chairman Datuk Abdul Shukor Idrus said the Chinese were “extreme” in their support for Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
“I can see they are behind a movement to hate BN. I can see that the Chinese really hate BN,” Shukor had said.
The UMcedel survey, carried out three days after Mohamed Azmin Ali was sworn in as the Selangor menteri besar, revealed that support for PR in Selangor had surged to 43%.
However, support for BN declined to 20%, while 28% said they supported neither coalition and another 9% refused to respond.
A previous survey by UMcedel in May this year showed that support for PR was at 35% while support for BN was at 25%.
Independent pollster Merdeka Center is also in the midst of collecting results of a similar survey done nationwide, Ibrahim said, adding that so far, the results seem similar to that of the UMcedel one.
"It will be out some time this coming week and in many ways, the result seems similar but it will show the national effect on BN's support and popularity."
Ibrahim also noted that the spike in support for Pakatan was also because of the conclusion of the "Kajang move" which ended with Azmin being appointed as Selangor menteri besar.
"It marked the end of the divisive in-fighting in Pakatan that was played out in the public eye. PR-leaning voters, who were turned off by the whole Selangor crisis, came back because the problem subsided."
Besides that, from 2005 onwards, Umno has been moving towards the right-end of the political spectrum, which is Malay nationalism and a more conservative brand of Islam which has driven a wedge between them and non-Muslim voters, he said.
"The big question is what made these voters vote overwhelmingly for BN in the 2004 GE and then turn their backs against them in 2008?
"The Umno they voted for in 2004 is different from the Umno in 2008 following unfulfilled promises, hurtful statements and misinterpretation of the expectation of voters," Ibrahim added.
Political analyst Khoo Kay Peng agreed, saying that poor governance and wastage of public funds that the people saw in the federal government was reflected in their support in Selangor.
"The demand from more mature voters is that the government delivers. And Selangor is a very urban area. As far as we can see, there is no effective policy intervention to make life better for the urban people," he said.
"And there's the wastage in public funds as highlighted by the AG's (auditor general) report. The recent budget had not clearly identified areas where it would tighten its purse.”
Khoo hit out at Shukor, whom, he said, has totally missed the point of the survey.
"For Umno to continue to use racial-labelling and pinpoint one single community, he has missed the point totally.
"Instead, they should find out why the Chinese are not voting for them and address and resolve these issues.
"These kinds of statements do not help BN and shows how lazy politicians are for not wanting to think deeply about their reduced support.”
Concurring, Ibrahim urged Umno in Selangor to figure out why they have lost support, reminding them that the answer was not as simplistic as one race turning their backs completely on them.
"Voters are practical people. While people make their choices based on many factors, it is also driven by how they perceive the political parties do their work and whether they champion the causes of people."
Khoo added: "Besides, these people did not only vote against Umno, but all 14 multi-racial parties under the Barisan Nasional umbrella."
- TMI
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