Soon after DAP postponed its party election to focus on the next general election, speculation is rife again that early national polls is on the cards.
Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak seems to have the upper hand, after the landslide victory in the Sarawak state election and retaining both marginal seats with higher majorities in the recent twin parliamentary Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar by-elections.
With his arch-enemy Dr Mahathir Mohamad's new party believed to be in the works, it is speculated that Najib may call for GE14 later this year, before the new party is fully-formed, and to catch the opposition off guard.
However, some analysts believe that it is "highly unlikely" for Najib to call for GE14 anytime soon.
University of Tasmania's Asia Institute director James Chin opined that Najib has to build up his electoral coffers first before going to war, so to speak.
The current economy is bad and tycoons will not back Najib if the general election is held in the short term, Chin (photo) said.
"You never enter a general election until you at least have one billion ringgit in cash. He has to build up his reserves.
"In 2013, he (Najib) lost the popular vote in GE13… he will have to throw money left and right (in GE14 to win voters back)," he told Malaysiakini when contacted.
Thanks to the constituency redelineation and other advantages, the BN captured 133 seats, accounting for 60 percent of the total seats in Parliament, despite merely garnering 47 percent of the popular vote in the last general election.
In the coming GE14, Chin predicts that BN will not be able to win back the urban Chinese-majority seats, not to mention reclaiming the two-thirds majority in Parliament, which BN lost in the 2008 general election.
What Najib aims for, he says, is to recapture some Malay rural areas with his economic policies.
"Due to the goods and services tax (GST) and other factors, urban votes are gone," Chin said.
When contacted yesterday, DAP national organising secretary Anthony Loke revealed that DAP predicts that GE14 would be called in "the first half of next year".
Money to rain down in 2017 Budget?
If DAP's projection turns out to be accurate, Najib may annouce a series of "political candies" in his 2017 Budget proposal in October, such as raising the 1Malaysia People's Aid (BR1M), for instance.
Also, Najib has a few "plans" that are to be pushed through in Parliament ahead of the GE14, including tightening controls over the online media by revising the Multimedia and Communications Act 1998 and putting curbs on the Bar Council by amending the Legal Profession Act 1976,
Both of which may take place in the next sitting of Parliament which will be from Oct 17 to Nov 24.
As for the opposition camp, the nascent Pakatan Harapan is nowhere comparable to what the now disbanded Pakatan Rakyat was during GE13, and the impact Mahathir's new party would bring to the political landscape, remains a question mark.
This lead to widespread belief that Najib will hit the opposition when it is still in disarray. However, Merdeka Center executive director Ibrahim Suffian (photo) begs to differ.
"I think it is partly true. Only partly true, as there are other factors… First and foremost, Najib needs the economy to be running quite well, so that the people would be on his side.
"Second, are the BN parties already prepared to face the election. Now, if you look at the calendar, there is not much of time to prepare for a snap election.
"Judging from the past elections, Najib is a very cautious and careful man, he will probably consider all factors," Ibrahim said.
Even if Mahathir's party enters the fray, a slew of issues need to be solved before it can pose any real threat to Najib, with seat negotiations among the opposition being one of it, he pointed out.
"I think the new party is going to enter a really crowded political arena, because most of the seats are claimed by other parties. Who is going to give them seats?" Ibrahim asked.
Regardless of whether Mahathir's party and the grand opposition coalition that is being touted are successfully formed, the issue of "Who will be the opposition leader?" has already emerged.
The last time Najib announced the dissolution of Parliament was on the fourth anniversary of his tenure as prime minister.
In June this year, Najib remained mum to questions on whether he would keep the latest cabinet line-up until the next general election. - Mkini
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