STATE POLLS | Pakatan Harapan-BN seems to be on a solid path to winning the Negeri Sembilan state election and forming the state administration after Aug 12.
With the campaigning period ending in mere hours, Perikatan Nasional has yet to spring any shocker to disrupt the federal government allies’ stronghold on the southern state.
As observed by Malaysiakini, campaign sessions by Harapan-BN have received “extraordinary” attention and attendance from voters, far outnumbering the attendance at PN’s mega ceramah, which was attended by the opposition coalition’s top leaders.
For example, the event featuring PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang in Bandar Baru Sendayan was attended by fewer than 500 people, while thousands came to an event where Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim was present in Paroi.
It is worth noting that Negeri Sembilan is the only state that does not have any representative from PN, be it at the parliamentary or state levels.
In the 14th general election, Harapan won 20 state seats, while BN retained 16. In GE15, PN failed to win any parliamentary seat in the state. Five of the eight parliamentary seats were won by BN, while Harapan took the remaining three.
PN is kept alive in Negeri Sembilan by a small base of PAS and Bersatu supporters, as well as disgruntled Umno voters.
Hoping to surmount this wall, PN has opted to use the ‘#Nismilan Kito Ubah’ (Let’s change Negeri Sembilan) slogan to convince state voters to switch allegiances.
Based on Umno’s GE15 performance, BN commands Malay support in Negeri Sembilan, and the party’s collaboration with Harapan gives it an added advantage.
Harapan, meanwhile, has a sizeable support base among the non-Malays, and this would in turn support BN candidates at the polls.
Malay, youth support
In Negeri Sembilan, BN dominates the rural heartlands, where the electorate is predominantly Malay-Muslim.
A renowned figure who could benefit from this is Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan, who looks to be in a comfortable position to defend his Rantau state seat.
The level of support from Malays and non-Malays alike for the defence minister is expected to increase in the state polls.
This was apparent by his campaign machinery being seemingly unperturbed although Mohamad himself was absent from campaigning for a few days due to the flu.
State caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin Harun seems to be on similar ground to defend his Sikamat state seat, although he is constantly subjected to “attacks” from former state exco member Mohamad Rafie Ab Malek, who is defending the neighbouring Ampangan seat as an independent, after being excluded from PKR’s line-up.
The Harapan-BN combo also seems to enjoy sizeable support from the youth in Negeri Sembilan. Youngsters have been spotted on the campaign trail and the ceramah stage, proudly donning t-shirts of the two coalitions.
GE15 statistics show BN enjoying a jump in youth support in Negeri Sembilan - higher than the other states. The 52 percent increase in young Malay voters could strengthen BN-Harapan’s already solid support base.
Where PN stands a chance
Despite the generally positive picture for Harapan-BN, PN could still upset the former’s position in seven state seats.
They include Lenggeng, Pilah, Jeram Padang, Linggi, Bagan Pinang, Labu, and Gemas.
PN is fielding its state deputy chairperson Rafiei Mustapha for the Pilah seat, against Harapan’s Nur Zunita Begum Mohd Ibrahim of PKR.
Rafiei has an added advantage of winning the seat in the Malay-majority rural area as his opponent is not from BN.
Another seat that PN stands a chance of winning is Jeram Padang, which sees BN’s Mohd Zaidy Abdul Kadir facing PN’s S Surash.
Zaidy had to cut down the frequency of his campaigning activities after being involved in a road accident.
Jeram Padang is a traditional MIC seat, and this is the first time an Umno leader is contesting in the Indian-majority area.
Surash is no small fry either. In GE14, he lost the seat as an independent to MIC’s L Manikam. However, he emerged first runner-up with 2,640 votes, more than Harapan candidate Musliadi Sabtu’s 2,302 votes.
Another such seat is Linggi, where PN is pitting Zamri Md Said against BN’s Mohd Faizal Ramli. By virtue of being a local, Zamri has the upper hand.
In addition, one should not discount the possible shockers that former deputy minister Eddin Syazlee Shith and Danni Rais, the son of former minister Rais Yatim, could spring in the Juasseh and Klawang state seats, respectively.
They are considered strong contenders in the state polls.
Overall, Harapan-BN is seen as more consistent in terms of its machinery, strength, and support.
As it stands, PN’s cries of #Nismilan Kito Ubah are not loud enough to shake Negeri Sembilan off its stance. - Mkini
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