Think tank Ilham Centre says many Umno supporters to back PN

 

STATE POLLS | Think tank Ilham Centre has predicted that between 27 to 58 percent of Umno supporters will vote for Perikatan Nasional during the state elections tomorrow.

It said the proportion of Umno supporters who decided to swing was different across constituencies and were motivated by different factors.

Ilham Centre said dissatisfied Umno supporters can broadly fall in three categories.

The first group are opponents of Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and blamed him for Umno’s failings during the 2022 parliamentary elections.

The second group are those who do not have a problem with Zahid but are against Umno cooperating with Pakatan Harapan, especially DAP.

The final group of dissidents are those who accept Zahid and the cooperation with Harapan but are unhappy with the choice of candidate.

“This situation can be stemmed if Umno leaders meet their grassroots to explain their decision to work with (arch rivals) DAP and (prime minister) Anwar Ibrahim,” said Ilham Centre.

The think tank drew this conclusion from its July survey of 2,416 respondents in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Negeri Sembilan, Selangor, and Penang.

The respondents were chosen through random stratified sampling.

It did not state the proportion of respondents who identified as Umno supporters.

Meanwhile, Ilham Centre predicted that the turnout for the election tomorrow will be “low” compared to the 2022 parliamentary elections, except in Selangor and Kedah.

“Respondents who voted in Terengganu and Kelantan (but reside in other states) appear to be comfortable with PAS’ massive victory in the previous election and expect them to win without them going back to vote.

“Selangor and Kedah is seeing a heated campaign, causing voters to express an interest in participating (in the election),” said Ilham Centre.

The national turnout during the 2022 parliamentary elections was 74.04 percent. The breakdown of the state level turnout was as follows:

• Selangor - 78 percent

• Terengganu - 78 percent

• Negeri Sembilan - 76 percent

• Penang - 76 percent

• Kedah - 75 percent

• Kelantan - 69 percent
  

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