PN banks on GE15 momentum to win muted Padang Serai polls

The campaigning for the Padang Serai election is well underway, with about a week left to go before polling on Dec 7. Politicians and observers say the election this time feels less intense than usual.

While party flags, posters and banners can be seen dotting areas such as the Padang Serai town, Lunas, Paya Besar and the Kulim Hi-tech Park, most of the constituency does not appear to have been “infected with election fever”.

There have also been very few big names from any of the parties going down to campaign in Padang Serai thus far, though more are expected in the second half of the campaign.

The less intense campaigning may be due to the kerfuffle surrounding the recent appointment of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim following the conclusion of GE15, which saw Pakatan Harapan and BN coming together with GPS, GRS and Warisan to form the federal government.

Despite Perikatan Nasional (PN) feeling like they missed the opportunity to form the government by a hair’s breadth, it is clear that they made great gains in GE15, with a wave of PN support sweeping through the northern states of Peninsular Malaysia.

Bolstered by their performance in GE15, PN now feels that Padang Serai – which has been won by PKR since 2008 – is within their grasp.

PN’s Padang Serai candidate Azman Nasruddin (centre)

PN’s Padang Serai candidate Azman Nasruddin has been so confident of his imminent victory that he declared Padang Serai will become the coalition’s 14th parliamentary seat from Kedah.

PN saw the coalition swoop up almost all Kedah parliamentary seats in GE15 - save for Sungai Petani, which remained with Harapan.

Malaysiakini also observed overwhelming support for Azman on his campaign trail, such as last Sunday, when he visited the pasar malam at Jalan Kelang Lama in Lunas.

During his visit, PN supporters stood in the rain along the main road carrying flags and banners and they asked motorists to sound their car horn as a show of support.

The response from motorists was so overwhelming that it transformed the atmosphere into a fiesta mood for about an hour.

Malaysiakini’s street polls at various parts of the constituency also indicated that the sentiment on the ground was leaning towards PN, compared to BN or Harapan.

Riding the wave

Surrounded by oil palm plantations and the Kulim Hi-tech industrial zone, Padang Serai is a mixed seat with around 40 percent non-Malay voters, of whom half are Chinese.

The semi-urban constituency is located in the south of Kedah, bordering the Penang mainland.

In GE15, three Penang parliamentary seats that share a border with Padang Serai fell to PN. These are Kepala Batas, Tasek Gelugor and Permatang Pauh.

Most notably, PN brought down former Umno minister Reezal Merican Naina Merican in the BN stronghold of Kepala Batas - as well as Nurul Izzah Anwar in Permatang Pauh, which has been a PKR fortress since Anwar started his reformasi movement about 20 years ago.

Coupled with PN’s dominant showing in the other northern states of Perlis, Kelantan and Terengganu – where they swept all the parliamentary seats – it is no wonder the coalition is banking on the “PN wave” showing its effects in Padang Serai as well.

On the other hand, BN candidate C Sivarraajh appears to see Padang Serai as a chance for the coalition to rise again, after its disastrous performance in GE15 where it only won 30 parliamentary seats.

BN candidate C Sivarraajh

Meanwhile, Harapan’s campaign has focused on its messaging that a vote for their candidate is a vote for Anwar. Candidate Mohamad Sofee Razak was even reported saying his victory in Padang Serai would be ”a gift” from the people to Anwar.

However, Kulim DAP chairperson S Neelamekan, 60, fears Sofee’s chances of victory would be affected by the Indian sentiment in the constituency, which he said had intensified after Harapan failed to field an Indian candidate.

“The Padang Serai voters have to be part of the solution and not become a problem. What is important at this stage for the nation is to be part of the solution.

“The split among the Indian voters, caused by these sentiments, will only benefit the political opponents who do not have the nation at heart… Indian votes will make a difference in this election,” Neelamekan told Malaysiakini.

Harapan candidate Mohamad Sofee Raza

There is also an issue between Sivarraajh and Sofee, as both urged the other to stand down in light of their respective coalitions now cooperating at the federal level.

However, both dismissed the idea of withdrawing from the race

In 2018, Harapan - with Bersatu’s support - won Padang Serai with just 45.3 percent of the votes after a large number of opposition voters backed PAS - which received 32.7 percent of votes.

Polling for Padang Serai was postponed to Dec 7 after Harapan’s incumbent M Karupaiya, 69, died several days before GE15.

This by-election for the Padang Serai parliamentary seat will see a six-way fight involving Azman, Sofee, Sivarraajh, Hamzah Abdul Rahman from Pejuang, Warisan’s Bakri Hashim and independent candidate Sreanandha Rao.

Sofee is the Kedah PKR secretary and a lawyer, while Sivarraajh is an MIC vice-president and a businessperson.

Azman, who defected from PKR in 2020 to join Bersatu, is currently the Lunas state assemblyperson and a member of the Kedah state executive council. - Mkini

Malaysian politics: a tale of U-turns and pragmatism

 

Finally, after a few days of intense horse-trading, backroom deals, grandstanding, and public apologies, we have a prime minister.

For years, our newly minted PM has argued that he has had the requisite support to form a government. And, to be frank, he has come close a few times, only to be thwarted by the same type of backroom horse-trading that happened this time.

His staunch supporters would argue that our new prime minister was unfairly persecuted and locked up in prison, because of his ambitions.

Let’s all hope, for the sake of the country, his government is given a full five-year term till 2028, to make good on his promises.

Anwar Ibrahim has 24-years’ worth of pledges in his pocket, from the genesis of the ‘reformasi’ movement. Isn’t it incumbent on everyone to at least give the man the necessary time to sort himself and this muddled government out?

Our PM10’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition secured 37.5% of the popular vote, the highest by any coalition. By virtue of this, and rightfully so, under the present archaic ‘First Past The Post’ electoral system, he should be given the first crack at leading Malaysia.

But we need to recognise that the majority of voters in Malaysia chose other coalitions. While PH came in first, not far behind, at 30% of the popular vote, is Perikatan Nasional (PN), the seemingly ultra-nationalistic and religious pact.

And, who would have guessed that the erstwhile dominant coalition of Barisan Nasional (BN) would only come out in third place, with 22% of the popular vote.

Now, after the aforementioned horse-trading, a ‘unity’ government has been formed.

How long it will last is anyone’s guess. I am hopeful, but not completely convinced that our PM10 has the luxury of time, though.

Undoubtedly, he is in a precarious position with this motley crew of strange bedfellows. And, if history teaches us anything about Malaysian politicians, it’s that no one can really be trusted.

But I reckon we all should come to terms with the new political landscape in Malaysia.

We need to acknowledge that the citizenry is deeply polarised. There is a clear urban-hinterland divide. Next, people clearly voted along racial and religious lines. And, newly eligible 18-year-olds, whom PH, the erudite and more liberal coalition thought would be with them, were absolutely not.

This has led to, and it will continue to remain, the reality of Malaysian politics in the near future. Gone are the days when BN governments of old would be given an easy two-thirds majority in parliament. They tended to rule unchecked in any way they saw fit.

Absolute power seems to be obsolete.

I say this is a good thing. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. We saw this with Najib Razak and some of his predecessors. And, the allegations of impropriety have already surfaced about Muhyddin Yassin’s 17-months in the driver’s seat when he suspended parliament during the pandemic.

Anytime, us voters give too much power to a coalition, party, or leader, something strange seems to happen to them. They lose their internal moral and ethical barometer, and start behaving like Malaysia is their own fiefdom.

While Anwar, has assumed office under tense and precarious circumstances, I think it augurs well for Malaysia that he will have to taper his natural tendencies as a politician, and instead focus on unifying a polarised nation.

Because it is a unity government that is glued together by goodwill (and obviously some backroom deals), he cannot rule unchecked or ‘bermaharajalela’ like former prime ministers.

This, regardless of the anxiety it has caused ordinary folks, ultimately, is a victory for Malaysian citizens. We cannot have leaders who are given carte-blanche freedom to do whatever they please. We cannot afford another Mahathir Mohamad or Najib.

Malaysia needs our leaders to be measured, considered and have the interests of the diverse people of our nation in mind, when making decisions. Because he only secured 37.5% of the popular vote, Anwar has to be very measured with every move.

Those who voted for his coalition, should not shoot themselves in the foot and demand all sorts of things right away. They need to see the bigger picture, think strategically, and work towards the betterment of Malaysia, and all Malaysians.

One thing is for sure. Our PM10 has his work cut out. He inherits a deeply polarised nation with dodgy finances, a wonky education system, and a somewhat inefficient administration.

And to top this off, expectations run really high for our PM. Let’s be honest, since Mahathir, we have set the bar pretty low on who becomes our prime minister.

Now, we finally have a PM who is erudite, world recognised, and speaks with passion and style, in both Bahasa Malaysia and English. He peppers his speeches with relevant religious verses to include the majority race, and throws in a lot of humour and inclusiveness to not alienate the rest.

So, everyone expects him to perform miracles from day one. This is not possible, people. This is the aftermath of a hung parliament, which is what the people of our nation voted for.

Malaysians who voted for PH must recognise that the prime minister will need to be measured in his actions. Malaysians who voted for other coalitions, and they outnumber those who voted for PH, need to be appeased, and made to feel like PM10 is not a threat to them.

I feel relief and trepidation in equal measure. I expected a hung parliament. And now, the deep-seated polarisation is clear so I’m weary of horse-trading politicians. It’s a bumpy road ahead.

For us ordinary folks, it’s best to remember that Malaysian politics, at least for now, is all about U-turns and pragmatism. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.

Unity govt unstable, BN MPs can threaten to leave any time, says Bersatu man

 

Bersatu’s Wan Saiful Wan Jan says BN MPs can threaten to leave Anwar Ibrahim’s government if their demands are not met.

PETALING JAYA: The unity government under the leadership of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is unstable and can be threatened at any time by Barisan Nasional, says Bersatu information chief Wan Saiful Wan Jan.

He said the situation was the same during the Perikatan Nasional government under the leadership of former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, and the government made up of PN and BN ministers led by Umno vice-president Ismail Sabri Yaakob.

Wan Saiful said Anwar’s government is dependent on the bloc of 30 BN MPs in his unity government, and if they resist Anwar’s push for reforms, they could withdraw support.

“I pity the prime minister for talking about reforms but facing a group that can threaten him, and has a record of bringing down governments, if their demands are not met,” he said in an interview on Astro Awani last night.

Muhyiddin, the PN chairman, resigned in August 2021 after 15 Umno MPs withdrew their support for PN, leading to the collapse of his government.

He was replaced by Ismail, who faced pressure from Umno to dissolve Parliament and call for an early election.

The general election on Nov 19 led to a hung Parliament, with Anwar appointed prime minister on Nov 24  leading a unity government consisting of Pakatan Harapan, BN, Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah.

Anwar also has the support of MPs from Muda, Warisan, Parti Bangsa Malaysia and Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat, and two independents which, he said, gives his government a two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat.

However, PH has drawn flak for choosing to cooperate with BN in light of its opposition to BN leaders who were facing ongoing court cases.

Stating that BN chairman and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s corruption case will be a closely watched affair, Wan Saiful questioned the impact that it would have on Anwar’s government.

“What will happen if he is found to be innocent? And if Zahid is guilty, what consequence will that have on the government? This is a big issue,” the Tasek Gelugor MP said.

Wan Saiful said he was proud that PN chose to remain in the opposition and not put aside its principles, adding that it was unlike PH, which was willing to reach a compromise with BN.

“It’s just that I’m worried about the attitude of populist politicians in the PH government who make the public fed up with politicians,” he said.

“Today they say one thing, tomorrow they say something different, and the day after that, they say something else again.” - FMT

Last chance saloon for Anwar and PH

 

After years of political instability, will the promise of Malaysia Baru now have its day? (JPN pic)

PETALING JAYA: Given a second chance to govern Malaysia, Pakatan Harapan (PH) is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes that plagued its first tenure, especially with its leader, Anwar Ibrahim, now firmly in charge as prime minister.

In its latest research note, Fundamental Flash, to its clients, AHAM Capital (formerly known as Affin Hwang Asset Management Bhd) unpacks what lies ahead for Malaysia with greater clarity emerging on the political front and investment opportunities.

Here are excerpts from its report:

Once bitten, twice shy

When PH came to power in 2018 under 7th prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, markets drifted lower as the government then embarked on a swathe of policy reforms that also grounded the wheels of commerce and eroded market confidence.

Backward-looking policies, including cancellation of infrastructure projects like MRT3 as well as wholesale changes of CEOs heading corporates or government-linked companies (GLC) impeded decision-making and stalled growth.

Other populist moves to abolish the goods and services tax (GST) which resulted in a RM40 billion revenue shortfall as well as broadband price cuts also decimated markets.

With a second shot at power, PH is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes and policy flip-flops that plagued its first tenure especially with Anwar now firmly holding the reins.

Channel checks with party officials also reveal an acknowledgement of the need to be more practical and nuanced in setting policy direction as well as communicating them.

All eyes on Cabinet

Strange bedfellows currently make up the unity government with Barisan Nasional (BN) and PH component parties, once at odds with each other, now finding themselves sitting on the same side of the Dewan Rakyat.

It is hoped that the new unity government, which effectively commands a two-thirds majority in Parliament, would be able to close ranks and restore political stability to carry out much needed fiscal and institutional reforms to attract foreign interest and invigorate the economy.

These include broadening the country’s revenue tax base and rationalising a ballooning subsidy bill that is projected to hit RM80 billion this year.

If these reforms can be effectively carried out, we could see a reversal of foreign fund flows and help revitalise the local equity market.

The unity government has yet to be unveiled. Expectations are we would see a much leaner Cabinet comprising a mix of technocrats and politicians that would help drive economic policies.

It will be important to monitor key Cabinet roles such as finance which could set the policy tone for other ministries.

Technicals are favourable

Mired by political instability, the local market has been stuck in the doldrums for the past few years.

Since 2014 to date, when 1MDB issues started hitting the market, the local equity market fell by over 18% in ringgit terms or 40% in US dollar terms, as US$15.9 billion (RM70.7 billion) worth of portfolio monies flowed out.

Foreign shareholding reached a 10-year low as political uncertainty dissuaded foreign investors from ploughing money. Domestic institutional funds have also been highly cashed-up as they sit on the sidelines.

Crucially, if there is a return of political stability and a growth story, foreign inflow could drive our markets higher. In every year between 2010 and 2021, whenever there is net foreign buying, our market has been driven positively higher.

With emerging clarity and successful execution of policies, we expect the local market to gradually ascend higher as it climbs over walls of worry in the political sphere.

The first obstacle is when Anwar tests his parliamentary majority through a vote of confidence on Dec 19 when Parliament convenes.

With low positioning and foreign funds underweighting Malaysia, we could see as much as RM10 billion in terms of foreign inflows, should foreign investors neutralise their benchmark-weights in Malaysia as confidence grows with greater clarity.

It is still early-stage but Malaysia could emerge as a prime growth destination for reinvestment and political stability in the region after being out of the radar for so long.

We have seen a strong appetite for Malaysia as evidenced by the sharp gains seen in the local market when Anwar was appointed as prime minister which ended the political impasse.

The rally was broad-based across sectors and driven by both domestic and foreign inflows suggesting investors are willing to relook at Malaysia for opportunities.

Portfolio positioning

Incremental positives domestically as well as in the macro environment with tentative signs showing US inflation peaking could signal an inflection point for Malaysian equities as the Fed tones down its hawkish rhetoric.

A renewed zeal to carry out reforms and avoid repeating the same mistakes also augurs well for the unity government as it finds its footing.

While recognising there is a timing trade-off between waiting for more clarity but also potentially missing out on gains, we find the balance of risks tilted towards the upside.

We are taking a selective approach towards building exposure through large caps in particular:

• Banks which continue to offer attractive dividend yields;
• Property stocks as a potential investment cycle play;
• Healthcare names given potential doubling of budget spending here;
• Beneficiaries of labour shortage restructuring;
• Beneficiaries of ringgit strength and subsidy restructuring; and
• Reopening-plays as more cross-border restrictions are lifted.

- FMT

Bias for govt will harm your credibility, civic groups warned

 

Political scientist Chandra Muzaffar says civic groups that used to attack Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi over early elections have ‘all gone quiet’.

PETALING JAYA: Social activist Chandra Muzaffar has warned members of civil society against showing a bias for the newly formed government, saying their credibility is at stake.

“It’s already happening,” he told FMT, alleging that civic groups that used to attack Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi for wanting to have a general election during the monsoon season had “all gone quiet”.

“It’s a problem because it affects their credibility and standing in society,” he said.

Chandra, a political scientist, said groups making up the civil society of a nation played an important role in helping the public understand current issues but would no longer be able to fulfil this function if they exhibited prejudice.

“When you can’t help society understand the issues plaguing the country, you can’t contribute to the enlightenment and development of society,” he said.

Last Monday, Suaram adviser Kua Kia Soong alleged that civil society members seemed silent on issues involving Pakatan Harapan. “Public integrity is on trial,” he said.

Referring to civic groups that had called for Zahid’s exclusion from the new Cabinet, he said they did not make a similar call when Dr Mahathir Mohamad included DAP leader Lim Guan Eng in his Cabinet.

At the time, Lim was facing corruption charges over the purchase of a bungalow in Penang. Kua asked why civil society did not demand an explanation for the Attorney-General’s Chambers’ decision to drop the charges.

Disagreeing with Kua, political analyst Wong Chin Huat said civic groups like Bersih had been consistent in speaking out on issues of public interest. He gave the example of calls for the roles of the public prosecutor and attorney-general to be separated.

Wong said there would always be people in any society who would pursue their grudges and others who would defend double standards.

He said society could move on only after structural causes were tackled.

“In Lim’s case, the AGC did provide an explanation but this is still being harped on,” he said. “This proves the issue is in the institutional structure and beyond the merit or demerit of the individual cases.” - FMT