India will have world’s largest population of working people by 2020.
But will it boost economy or lead to a downfall and social unrest?
boost in working-age population, usually brings positive effect called "demographic dividend"
means large labor force will boost country's industry and economy by itself
Aakar Patel, journalist from Indian news outlet Firstpost, challenges this concept
believes that in India, upcoming peak of working population bring more problems
cites report by IndiaSpend, a data-based journalism initiative
most people (97%) in India are employed in "unorganized sector" — jobs without formal monthly payment or social security benefits.
worse, most people not employed for entire year
60% of people have temporary jobs.
rural wages in India are at decade's minimum level
most important thing is dynamics of labor market, Patel points out
virtually no new jobs.
2015 marked lowest increase in "organized sector" jobs
major contraction of agricultural sector, accounts for 50% of jobs in India.
New business starts cratered to 2009 levels.
These combined market forces mean that upcoming wave of labor force participants will not be met by a corresponding demand for their services.
Instead of an economic boost, India will face dramatic unemployment, and, eventually, social unrest that will be very difficult to cope with.
low level of education in India doesn't help.
Most Indians no access to education for skills for even "blue collar" jobs.
Thus, even creation of demand for labor force won't be enough
as labor market won't be able to provide workers with skills required
the quality of education in India is poor (no surprise, considering all the above).
India is likely to face a social catastrophe instead of "demographic dividend", Patel concludes.
My comments : Folks, replace the word India with Malaysia and "Indian people" with Malay / bumiputra. Then read this article again.
This is already happening in Malaysia. The Malay / bumiputra / Muslim population is increasing (as a result also of the intake of Filipino Muslims in Sabah, Indon migrants, Rohingyas, Bangla and Pakistan migrants).
There is a population explosion in Malaysia as well. The difference between Malaysia and India is that we have more schools per say 10,000 population than India. Our Education Budget is still the largest budget every year.
But our schools are seriously underperforming. Plus they are NOT converting the Malays / bumiputras / Muslims into regular economic participants.
Some would say the kids are becoming dumber AFTER going to the gomen schools. Many are also learning disruptive, racist, extremist religious ideas while they are within the gomen education system (from Tadika to university). Yes there is serious negative indoctrination. Dont believe me? Ask the BTN boys.
Or check these out :
In Malaysia the problem is going to be more serious.
We are producing large numbers of bodoh sombong kids.
Then these bodoh sombong kids cannot perform even simple jobs.
They are lazy, they do not come to work on time, or they do not come to work.
They have a bad attitude towards work.
They cannot handle logic.
They have very, very poor attitudes towards people of other races and religions
That is why we have about a million Nepalis, two million Indons, two million Banglas and hundreds of thousands more migrant workers doing all sorts of jobs that our local kids cannot perform.
What about higher level jobs? Thinking jobs, real management jobs (high income GLC jobs not counted ok) ? It is worse.
India is going to have a serious problem. I think we already have a problem.
A large chunk of our demography just cannot work at par with the rest of the world.
We are back to the colonial times. The British brought in the migrants to work in the new economy because the locals did not wish to work. Back to square one.
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