Kemaman - lost cause for Madani coalition?

 

The upcoming by-election for the Kemaman parliamentary constituency will be an uphill battle for the Madani coalition.

BN chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi conceded on Oct 3 that the chance for victory is low, and even his goal of reducing Perikatan Nasional’s majority in the seat might be an uphill battle.

However, his mood has taken a positive turn, expressing confidence that BN direct candidate - former chief of defence forces Raja Mohamed Affandi Raja Mohamed Noor - can help the coalition retake the seat.

Kemaman is the second Parliament seat PN won in the 15th general election to have its results nullified after the courts found elements of corruption - with the first being Kuala Terengganu.

In both cases, PN decided not to appeal the court decision, paving the way for a by-election.

BN’s candidate for Kemaman Raja Mohamed Affandi Raja Mohamed Noor

The similarities between the two seats may also extend into the results.

In the Kuala Terengganu by-election, which ran simultaneously with the six state polls in August, PN retained the seat by a landslide with around 5,300 more votes than it received in GE15.

A similar pattern can be observed in Kemaman.

Kemaman was previously a BN stronghold until PAS captured the seat in 2018.

That year, PAS won the seat with just 44 percent of the vote in a three-cornered fight.

However, PAS’ level of support in the constituency has grown considerably since, based on the 2022 general election and 2023 state election results.

In the state polls, PN won all four state seats in Kemaman - Kemasik, Kijal, Cukai, and Air Putih - and the combined vote tally showed PN had around 1,500 more votes in the constituency compared to GE15.

Lower turnout

BN, meanwhile, gained just seven more votes despite partnering with Pakatan Harapan - which secured 8,340 votes in Kemaman during the general election.

This suggests lower turnout among Madani supporters and that a sizable number of BN voters swung to PN.

While Harapan and BN have won three by-elections - Pulai, Simpang Jeram, and Pelangai - these were seats they already held previously.

Further, in all three by-elections, PN increased the number of votes it received.

It is unlikely these wins will have a ripple effect in Kemaman, and voter sentiment is not expected to have changed considerably in the two months since voters in the constituency last went to the polls. - Mkini