ESSCOM BETTER BE ON STANDBY - ANOTHER MORO PEACE ACCORD IN KL

Well folks, I thought that 2014 Moro Peace Accord in KL was the final peace accord. Unfortunately that 'accord' in 2014 was followed almost immediately by that Lahad Datu attack.

Yesterday there was yet another "final" Moro Peace Accord in KL. ESSCOM better be on standby. Here be the news  from The Malay Mail :

Rival Islamic groups to unite

Sunday August 14, 2016

MILF and MNLF will join hands with Philippine govt for peace 

(I wish this was true. It is not.)

MILF chairman Murad Ebrahim said two organisations working to contain ISIS 

(This statement is to make M'sia feel good. It does not mean anything.)

We have special group to probe infiltration of IS 

programs done to counter radicalisation in area of our control.

(And which area is under their control? Even the Philippine govt cannot do much.)

“MNLF, under Nur Misuari, has deployed men to the Sulu islands to contain Abu Sayyaf.’’ he said.

(This is open acknowledgement that Nur Misuari can 'control' the Abu Sayyaf.  What happens if instead of 'containing' them, Nur Misuari lets them loose on Sabah? Like what happened in 2014.)

Murad speaking at implementing phase of Bangsamoro Accord 

will see end of 17 years of negotiations 

Philippine govt and MILF now enter formal partnership for peace

(So it is hoped.)

The implementation phase will focus on how to implement the provisions of the Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro after the non-passing of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) during the country’s 16th Congress session.

(Alamak.  Sounds like a Band-Aid repair. The BBL - which was preceded by years and years of 'peace accords' and peace talking - finally was rejected by the Philippine Congress.   

• The Bangsamoro Law was rejected.  
• The attempt has failed. 
• That was a disaster for the Moro Peace process. 

Now this Peace Accord in KL is to try and repair the damage from the collapse of the BBL. This is a whole new process.) 

According to Murad, he will extend an olive branch to . .  Abu Sayyaf,  Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters 

(No mention of MNLF. The question is does the MILF represent ALL the Moro people? The answer is NO. So are the Malaysian gomen's 'peace initiatives' effective? Or is our approach just a waste of time? The MILF does not represent the MNLF or the Abu Sayyaf or the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters  - BIFF.)

What is wrong with this picture? 

The words MNLF are missing.

Nur Muhammad Misuari is not here.

anger and frustration, environment of uncertainty, turned to armed conflict. 
present an alternative option for them

• Rep of Philippine govt said terrorist groups will be severely dealt with.
• Abu Sayyaf will be dealt with an iron fist. 
• We strongly condemn their kidnapping, beheading and criminal activities

(The Abu Sayyaf will react. The MNLF will react. Nur Misuari will react. ESSCOM better be on standby.) Here is some copy paste news from other Philippine media about this accord :

1. However, he said that members of MNLF are not going to be excluded in the peace negotiations . . . . “It is open to everyone,” Dureza said.  .  .  . Dureza said he is also reaching out to MNLF founder Nur Misuari.

(Ok he is reaching out but the MNLF and Nur Misuari are not part of this process)

2.  Presidential Adviser Jesus Dureza said existing mechanism in the CAB (Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsmoro) allows for Bangsamoro Transition Commission (BTC)..  BTC is comprised of 15 members – eight from the MILF and seven who are appointed by the government.

See my point. The devil is in the details. Eight of 15 members of the Transition Commission are from the MILF. None from the MNLF. Remaining seven will be from Duterte's government. The MNLF is out in the cold again. There will be trouble.)

3.  (MILF) peace panels began two-day special meeting in KL following failure of Congress to pass Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL).  .  .  In his opening statement  Mohagher Iqbal, MILF’s chief negotiator, was straightforward in saying there is “widespread frustration on the ground by our people and members of the MILF” as result of the failure of government, particularly Congress, to pass the BBL.

This is the real situation on the ground. Here is the gist folks. The Philippines has a population of 105 Million fairly peaceful, colourful, increasingly prospering Catholic Filipinos. 

Way down south there are just over 3 million constantly fighting, bickering and unhappy Muslim Moros who do not think of themselves as Filipinos.  

I have heard the Bangsa Moro people say the following :  

"The word 'Manila' (the capital of the Philippines) is not a Spanish word. It has no meaning in the Tagalog language either. Manila comes from the Arabic Islamic 'fi-amaanila' (in Allah's peace). Meaning Manila was an Islamic city, not a Catholic city."

OK brother. So what does that have to do with the price of fish in Somalia? That may have been so in the past but we really have to deal with the present.

But if the 3 million Moros continue talking like that, it is not likely that the 103 million Catholic Filipinos (which is a vibrant democracy now) will vote for the Moros to have their own autonomy or independence.   

The earlier Moro position was complete independence from the Philippines. 
When that did not happen it changed into Autonomy for Mindanao.  
Now after the Philippine Congress rejected the BBL (Bangsamoro Basic Law) it has changed again to become a Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro.  

Along the way the Moros are split into so many factions - MILF, MNLF, BIFF, Abu Sayyaf and others. 

Now here is something from 15 years ago in 2001 :

• Oct 29, 2001 – MNLF Chairman Nur Misuari hailed unity agreement with MILF
• formal signing of unity pact
• Misuari : "major turning point for peace, development, freedom of Bangsamoro.."
• MNLF and MILF held a joint meeting on October 27, 2001 
• discussed resolution of Bangsamoro people in Mindanao.

The three-point agenda : 

• strengthen unity of MNLF and MILF
• Assess issues confronting Bangsamoro and, 
• continuing dialogue to discuss Bangsamoro people.

Folks, that was 15 years ago. Now 15 years later there is no resolution, even among themselves. This problem is not going to be solved tomorrow.

Instead of negotiating with the Philippine govt about the Bangsamoro, now the Bangsamoro groups (MILF, MNLF, BIFF, Abu Sayyaf)  are busy negotiating among themselves on whether they can agree to agree BEFORE they can talk to the Philippine govt.  

ESSCOM be on standby. As I have said before, everytime there is a peace accord (where one or more Moro groups are sidelined) or there is some military action by the Philippine army, the Moros will attack Sabah, kidnap more Malaysians, behead people etc.

Dont say I did not warn you.

Of course if the Moros attack Sabah or kidnap Malaysians, it will frighten the people of Sabah especially the Chinese business community.  When they are frightened guess who they will vote for?