True test of Umno-PAS coalition lies in seat negotiations

While the cooperation between Umno and PAS may be burgeoning, the question of whether both parties can form a viable electoral pact will only be tested during seat negotiations for the 15th general election.

Political analyst Jeniri Amir of Universiti Malaysia Sarawak believes that while ties between both parties have improved significantly considering their long bitter rivalry, the relationship has yet to be put to the test.

"Cooperation is not as simple as we think, it is complex," he told Malaysiakini today.

Old opposition coalitions – the predecessors of current ruling coalition Pakatan Harapan – had for the longest time failed to challenge BN due to multi-cornered fights which led to votes being split.

It was not until 2008, when the then-Pakatan Rakyat coalition went through arduous negotiations to ensure straight fights against BN, did the opposition chart electoral progress.

Umno and PAS will now face the same test – perhaps made more challenging due to the overlap of their seats in the Malay-Muslim heartland.

This is in contrast to Harapan, with DAP contesting in many Chinese-majority areas, PKR in mixed seats, and Amanah and Bersatu in Malay suburban and rural seats, with some overlap.

"There is still suspicion and a lack of sincerity," Jeniri said.

"The determinant (of the viability of the Umno-PAS coalition) will come near the general election – whether there will be clashes and how seats will be distributed."

In its recently concluded muktamar, PAS moved to formalise its alliance with Umno, with delegates approving political cooperation with their former nemesis – which has found itself significantly weakened after the losses it suffered in the last general election.

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang also moved to soothe concerns from within about this cooperation, stating that dissenters only make up a minority.

Jeniri said, however, that such concerns will likely die down as members tend to follow the leadership's direction.

Furthermore, the analyst believes that the coalition is about political survival – with Umno seeking to regain power and PAS sensing an opportunity to replace Harapan.

"Ultimately, it is about political survival. They want to ensure that they can win in the general election and topple Harapan." - Mkini