Why Trump wants to negotiate with Iran, why Iran does not want to negotiate and why US will not go to war with Iran and Iran understands all of this.

The situation in the Middle East is becoming even more tense. 

Well when has the situation in the Middle East not been tense?

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The more important question is, is it relevant to the rest of the world if the situation in the Middle East gets more tense? 
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Well not really. Or not as much anymore.  

In other words 'who cares'?

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In my view tension in the Middle East may be relevant to the rest of the world only at the Straits of Hormuz chokepoint. 20% of the world's oil supplies goes through these Straits. The Straits of Hormuz is bordered by Iran in the north and Oman in the south.
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The Straits of Hormuz is about 68 km wide at its narrowest point but the navigable channel for VLCCs and ULCCs (Very / Ultra Large Crude Carriers) is much narrower.  Ships navigate along a two - mile corridor in each direction (so its four miles) with a two mile separation corridor in between (total of six miles). Iran and Oman both claim a 12 mile territorial waters limit which effectively puts the entire Straits in someone's territorial waters. 

There have been attempts by Iran to "exert" control over the Straits, resulting in military action by the US, UK and other NATO allies. In 1988, after a US Navy missile frigate was severely damaged by an Iranian mine, the US Navy sank an Iranian frigate, a gunboat and six speed boats - all within 24 hours. That was the last time the Iranians tried any such thing. The Iranian Navy has advanced over 31 years but nowhere close to the US Navy. 

In short, the Straits of Hormuz will remain open for shipping.

Here is a Russian journalist talking about war between Iran and the rest of the planet earth (meaning USA). 

Link : https://youtu.be/RINQbQMYWJ0

My comments :

After 18 years, the US has lost the war in Afghanistan (2001). I say lost because the US cannot claim victory. And they cant leave Afghanistan.  They have accomplished nothing.

After 16 years, the US has lost the war in Iraq (2003). I say lost because the US cannot claim victory. And they cant leave Iraq.  And they have not accomplished anything.

It will be more difficult to win any war in Iran.  It will be quite impossible to defeat Iran, especially in a land war.

In 1991 it took 500,000 US troops to "liberate" tiny Kuwait.   Iran is a huge country, where the distances are huge.

A ground invasion? Newsweek must be mad. The US can shoot missiles into Iran. But will it achieve much? 

No one wants war. Not the Iranians, not Donald Trump and most of all not the Pentagon.

That is why Trump has now begun making gestures to Iran to talk to them. Trump is looking for another "deal of the century".  That is why Shinso Abe visited Iran - to try to persuade Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to negotiate with Trump. 

Khamenei has refused point blank. NO. 
The Great Devil does not want to talk to the Great Satan. 

There is a simple reason for this which the West and the rest perhaps keep forgetting.  The Ayatollahs have little or no legitimacy to rule Iran.  All dictatorships and authoritarian regimes lack legitimacy. It is that one golden globe and star studded oscar that eludes them. No legitimacy.

The claim that there is democracy in Iran is quite farcical. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah is NOT elected democratically. He rules for life. And he has the veto over who can stand for elections. The mullahs rule. Iran is a theocracy. They rule through repression, oppression and by the use of force.  The Ayatollahs have no legitimacy.

And they are failing miserably.  Long before the US led sanctions Iran was already suffering. (About 25 years ago my friends and I helped the earliest Iranian "immigrants" who were running away from Iran to Malaysia. We helped one family set up home here. After some years they left Malaysia. One of them died and is buried here). It is much worse now in Iran. The exchange rate is now 12 MILLION Iranian riyals for US100.

For 40 years  (since 1979) the Ayatollahs have shown that they do not know how to prosper their people. There are little social, religious, political and economic freedoms in Iran. 

Hence to prove their worth they MUST have enemies. The Ayatollahs need enemies. Real or imaginary - the more enemies the better. Enemies help create some legitimacy for them. They will save Iran from its enemies. 

So it will be the fastest political suicide in Iran if the Ayatollahs "negotiate" with their enemies.  Once you begin 'negotiating' with the US then you cannot call them Great Satan anymore. 

Trump shaking hands with the Ayatollahs poses a greater risk for the Ayatollahs' survival than all the US Navy's aircraft carriers and cruise missiles. 

If the US Air Force strikes Iran, that will extend the Ayatollahs' grip on Iran by at least 20 more years.  If they shake hands with Donald Trump, there will be no need for the Ayatollahs. So there will be no shaking hands with Donald Trump.

I believe the Ayatollahs will again read the chicken entrails wrongly - as they have for 1400 years. 

Trump and friends will be looking seriously at regime change. Despite all the hardships, the authoritarian Iranian government is stable. The people have enough to eat but they have little more than that. The day will come when they would have had enough of just having enough.  They will overthrow the mullahs. As certain as the sun will rise tomorrow, this will happen in Iran. 

Trump and his buddies must figure out how to expedite this. The Great Devil has to go. The 'deal of the century' will be figuring out how to do this without bombing anyone.  

There must be a leadership to lead the Iranian people to not just overthrow the Ayatollahs but to create a modern democracy in Iran. This is a vacuum now in Iran.