Ringgit within a whisker of 1998 record low

 

The ringgit is at risk of reaching a new low against the US dollar this year as Malaysia’s exports continue to weaken.

PETALING JAYA: The ongoing slide in the ringgit puts it a whisker away from a record low, and continued weakness in Malaysia’s exports as well as dollar strength may just push the currency past that level.

The ringgit is about 2% away from reaching 4.8850 per US dollar, a level last seen in 1998 when the Asian financial crisis ravaged the region’s currencies. The local currency has dropped nearly 4% this year.

“There is a risk that the ringgit will reach a new all-time low,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. “Exports are not recovering unlike those in other Asian economies and economic growth may remain lacklustre.”

China’s floundering economy is hurting Malaysia’s exports, which have declined for a 10th consecutive month in December.

While Malaysia still holds a current-account surplus, its ratio to gross domestic product (GDP) has fallen to near the lowest in 20 years, limiting support for the currency, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Trade data for January is due tomorrow.

Slumping exports have also weighed on Malaysia’s economic growth. Coupled with concerns over political stability following alleged attempts to bring down Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration and the persistent dollar strength, the outlook for the ringgit looks grim.

Traders will keep an eye on inflation data this week, which will offer clues on Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) ability to maintain interest rates and support the currency should the greenback’s strength prevail as investors pare bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Key Level

The ringgit hit 4.7958 in October, the weakest since 1998. A decline beyond this level may bring the 4.82 to 4.85 ringgit-per-dollar range into focus, according to a Bloomberg technical analysis.

“If the dollar continues to head higher, either due to further push-back in the Fed cut cycle or a bigger risk-off event, then the risk for the ringgit will persist,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp in Singapore.

To be sure, most analysts are forecasting a stronger ringgit by the end of the year as Malaysia’s economic growth gains momentum. OCBC sees the currency recovering to 4.60 per dollar, while ANZ predicts a level of 4.45.

The central bank is also expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged through 2024, even as the Fed eases its monetary policy.

“This would eventually narrow the yield differentials between US and Malaysia, providing support for the currency,” Wong said. “There’s room for the ringgit to recover some lost ground.” - FMT