BN unlikely to regain PM post at GE16, say analysts

 

Umno’s Lokman Adam claims BN may be able to contest 85 parliamentary seats under a ‘deal’ struck among unity government components.

PETALING JAYA: Analysts have dismissed the likelihood of Barisan Nasional (BN) regaining the prime minister’s post after the next general election (GE16), due in 2027.

Earlier this week, Umno Supreme Council member Lokman Adam claimed BN has the support of the unity government to stake its claim to Putrajaya’s top executive post in a “deal” reached ahead of GE16.

However, University of Tasmania’s James Chin shrugged off Lokman’s comments, saying he was merely “dreaming”, particularly given the “unenforceable and mutable nature” of such political agreements.

“Whatever agreement is made before the election, the results (will) dictate another set of agreements,” he told FMT.

Lokman Adam.

He said a change in political scenario may also see such pacts unrealised.

Chin pointed to how the infamous Sheraton Move in 2020 scuppered a planned leadership transition from Dr Mahathir Mohamad to Anwar Ibrahim scheduled to take place two years after Pakatan Harapan formed the federal government following GE14 two years earlier.

“That is just an example of what (an) agreement before an election means. It’s not worth anything,” said Chin.

In a video posted on X last Sunday, Lokman had claimed that the unity government components had struck a deal that would see the leader of the coalition that wins the most seats at GE16 become prime minister.

He said that in every constituency currently held by Perikatan Nasional, the unity government component with the best performing candidate will challenge for the seat in GE16.

As an example, Lokman said that under the agreement, BN would be entitled to run for the Baling seat currently held by PN’s Hassan Saad.

At GE 15, Hassan won by a majority of 29,137 votes in a four-cornered fight involving candidates from PH and Pejuang. BN’s Azeez Abdul Rahim was placed second with 35,356 votes.

The Umno communications director claimed that based on the formula, BN may be able to contest as many as 85 parliamentary seats.

Meanwhile, Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said he was not surprised by the understanding reached between the unity government components.

“It is very logical that any individual MP who has the most support would automatically be given the post of prime minister,” he said.

He also said the pact would not affect the components’ support for the unity government, pointing to the appointment of BN’s Saarani Mohamad as Perak menteri besar despite BN winning only nine of the 59 state seats in 2023, compared to PH’s 24.

Azmi said Umno would be in a worse position if BN were to cooperate with PN, since the party and the opposition coalition share the same target voter base – the Malay electorate.

He said the agreement would give Umno the “impetus” to plot the party’s comeback.

“I guess that particular strategy is good, but I think at this particular juncture it is quite impossible (for BN to do well).”

This was on account of the high level of support among Malay voters for PN, he said.

Chin agreed. “There is no way that Umno can win 85 seats. That is more than double the number of seats that Umno has now, so it is just not possible.

“Lokman is the communications (director) for Umno, so of course he talks big, but I don’t think anybody who’s involved in Malaysian politics (would) believe him,” he said.

Umno won 26 of the 30 parliamentary seats held by BN at GE15. - FMT