Two pundits have dismissed assertions that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s announcement of an impending pay hike for civil servants had played a deciding role in securing Malay support for Pakatan Harapan in Kuala Kubu Baharu yesterday.
Instead, they cited a mix of greater confidence in the government and legwork from Umno as key factors that helped Harapan and DAP retain the seat via its candidate Pang Sock Tao.
For Mazlan Ali, a political analyst from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Razak Faculty of Technology and Informatics, civil servants have regained trust in Harapan’s governance and policy direction, leading to a notable realignment of their voting preferences in favour of the ruling coalition during this by-election.
“I don't think that it (Harapan victory) happened just because of the prime minister’s announcement, but because of their confidence in the policies of the government under his administration.
"Under Anwar, investor confidence increased and at the same time the quality of service and the welfare of civil servants were given more attention," he told Malaysiakini.
He cited the shift in support of uniformed bodies who previously mostly voted for Perikatan Nasional in last year’s state election, to voting for Harapan yesterday.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan opined that Anwar and his announcement did not influence Malay voters yesterday.
“This (increase in Malay support) is not because of Anwar’s salary increment (announcement), no I don’t think so.
“Anwar never came down to campaign in Kuala Kubu Baharu, but Amirudin Shari, the Selangor menteri besar, was the icon for Harapan (in the campaign instead),” he said.
Azmi assessed that Malay support was instead delivered by Umno.
He said the Malay party had been vital in countering racial narratives from PN with their "personalised" campaign in Kuala Kubu Baharu.
"Looking at the rhetoric PN used during the campaign, I think there is some shift, maybe just four to five percent compared to the last state election towards Harapan among the Malay voters.
"As we have seen how the Umno campaign machinery worked, they targeted groups of Malay voters, meaning that they personalised the interactions (with the constituents),” he explained.
This is why Harapan won six out of eight Malay-majority polling districts in the seat, he added.
Mazlan echoed this view, saying that Umno may have persuaded their members and supporters to back the coalition government this time.
Last night, Umno secretary-general Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki claimed that Harapan won six Malay-majority polling districts, saying that the districts were “re-captured”.
Azmi said he was basing his views on Asyraf’s comments.
However, while Asyraf did share a photo that showed the results of 12 polling districts, he did not identify the six Malay-majority ones as per his claim.
Due to a lack of data transparency, there is conflicting information on which districts are Malay-majority.
However, checks by Malaysiakini found that Harapan only captured two districts from PN, namely Pertak and Kampung Air Jernih.
Postal and early votes also flipped from PN to Harapan in the by-election.
While detailed data is not yet available to the media, the screenshot Asyraf shared showed that in Kampung Air Jernih, it was a close fight with Harapan only bagging 11 more votes than PN.
Last year, PN won the district with just 17 more votes than Harapan.
‘Neither side gained significant ground’
While Mazlan, Azmi and others are touting the Kuala Kubu Baharu results as a sign of growing Malay support for Harapan, not all observers are convinced.
International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) analyst Syaza Syukri said a broader examination of voting trends and a comparison with last year's state elections does not reveal a significant shift in Malay support towards Harapan.
"When I analyse the larger picture and compare the numbers to the previous year's state polls, I don't see much difference.
"In other words, I don't really observe a substantial Malay shift favouring Harapan.
“The estimated 15-20 percent of Malay votes for Harapan appear to be consistent with their performance from last year. Neither side has truly gained significant ground," she added.
Instead, she suggested that the Malay voting patterns have remained relatively stable compared to the previous year, with Harapan maintaining a similar level of support within the Malay community.
This is in line with last night’s results showing that ultimately, support for both Harapan and PN were unchanged at 58 percent and 42 percent respectively.
Further, unofficial results for the Ampang Pechah polling district had PN bagging 1,839 votes - 273 more votes than last year - while Harapan had 100 fewer ballots in the district at 1,159 votes.
Outstation voters
On PN’s performance, both Mazlan and Azmi dismissed Bersatu deputy president Ahmad Faizal Azumu’s assertion that PN had lost partly because outstation voters did not return to cast their ballots.
Mazlan said outstation voters comprise a diverse group with varied political leanings, and it is inaccurate to assume that they are exclusively PN supporters.
"Not all outstation voters are PN supporters, just as not all of them support Harapan.
“This reasoning fails to account for the diversity of political affiliations among those who cast their ballots from outside their home constituencies," he added.
Echoing Mazlan, Azmi also pointed out that PN only has itself to blame for failing to offer a rebuttal towards the government and appeal to its voters.
Azmi further doubled down on his criticism towards PN's campaign as he deemed that the coalition had been repetitive.
"I think the fault lies with PN, its campaign strategy, because they offered nothing, except (usual narratives) to use as a rebuttal to the state and federal government administration.
"Let's say that the outstation voters are PN supporters, for them to come down to Kuala Kubu Baharu to vote (for PN), there is not enough persuasion there because these voters need to spend their money and time (to travel)," he said. - Mkini
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