The gamble of early elections

A Kadir Jasin

One of those resilient politicos, whose career I have tracked since the late 1960s when I became a reporter, is the DAP supreme leader, Lim Kit Siang.

I have not bumped into LKS for a long time. That’s because I had stop frequenting Raju’s. LKS was a Raju’s regular. I had since found a couple of good and more seasonably priced Mamak and Indian restaurants in the Petaling Jaya area.

Being a veteran, LKS’s political readings can be considered reliable although he might not often spell them out truthfully for political reasons.

But when he, on November 20, he warned in Kota Kinabalu that the DAP’s political partners (PKR and Pas) and Barisan Nasional should not be too confident in thinking that the results of the next general elections have been mapped out in their respective favour, I believe him.

He was quoted by Malaysian Insiders as saying that both the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance and the ruling BN were labouring under two fatal assumptions based on the recent events.

“It is a great mistake for BN to believe that its hold on Putrajaya is secure and that it could win back the Kedah and Selangor state governments from PR based on its victories in the Galas, Batu Sapi, Hulu Selangor and Bagan Pinang by-elections,” LKS said.

He noted BN leaders were brimming with confidence after reading former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s comments that the ruling coalition could retake Kedah and Selangor. (Dr Mahathir was today reported as saying that it wasn’t yet the time to hold a general election.)

The Ipoh-Timur MP and DAP’s adviser said the PR was also at risk if it believed it is invincible and its march to Putrajaya was unstoppable.

“Pakatan Rakyat leaders must immediately take stock of the loss of public confidence in the PR, not only from the setbacks in Galas and Batu Sapi, but also from the internal turmoils and problems inside Pakatan Rakyat parties,” he urged.

“Pakatan Rakyat leaders must urgently address these problems to stop and reverse the erosion of public confidence as we cannot afford to be complacent or take lightly the serious challenge and threat posed by Barisan Nasional whether at the parliamentary or state assembly level,” he stressed.

The spanner in Pakatan’s works

The PKR and, to a lesser degree, the DAP are facing internal problems. Anwar Ibrahim’s leadership of the PKR is being openly challenged by its Federal Territory chairman and the former BN Minister, Mohd Zaid Ibrahim.

Zaid’s status is unclear. He said he was leaving the party on December 16, but the party said he did not have to loiter around. He should just vamos – Spanglish (Spanish-English) for depart quickly. Or as we say in the Malay language, berambus.

The DAP faces leadership struggle in Perak with the victory of cousins Ngeh Koo Ham and Nga Kor Ming over the faction led by V. Sivakumar and a similar bruising battle is foreseen for Selangor.

On the BN side, while the MCA and the MIC are on the mend, the Gerakan is mired in uncertainly with the leadership of Dr Koh Tsu Koon remaining under threat.

There’s also fear the grand coalition may become swollen-headed and offensive following its recent by-election victories. This could put off the voters all over again.

The Achilles heel of the PR is the PKR. The opposition alliance could buckle if the PKR tormentor, Mohd Zaid succeeds in forming his own splinter party before the coming GE. He may draw away the disgruntled PKR members and possibly entice a few from the DAP to join him.

If his party fields a sufficiently large number of candidates, he could draw away some PR votes. There’s a slim chance that PR may accept Zaid’s party or enter into a loose electoral pact to avoid an all out confrontation.

Najib’s “lucky number”

On his part, the Prime Minister, Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, has to be supremely confident and 100 per cent sure that the BN has recovered to think of an early general elections.

Number 11 is said to be Mohd Najib’s lucky number, hence the widespread prediction that he will hold the GE sometime next year.

If he holds the GE next year, this will be the shortest Parliament in history. The current Parliament is just over three years.

Unless he is so very sure that the BN will do better, he is taking an unnecessary risk. On the other hand, waiting for the full term may also pose a danger as the economy could worsen and his transformation plans may not produce the expected results.

So, with the mainstream media and friendly pollsters giving him a high mark for popularity and performance, Mohd Najib may be tempted to call for an early GE to obtain his very on mandate instead of continuing with the mediocre mandate of his predecessor.

Irrespective of when the election is held, one new equation has set in. This has to do with the sudden rise in the number of new voters, presumably young first timers and the change in the media landscape.

There has been a big fall in the following of the pro-BN mainstream media in recent years. Coupled with the rising influence of the new media, it could take the battle for the hearts and minds of the voters to whole new level. Whoever is in control of the new media, could end up with the bonus.

— kadirjasin.blogspot.com