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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Why BN will have a minimum swing of 10% voters back to them for the 13 General Election?

Featured in Raja Petra – Malaysia Today
Shen Yee Aun
Why Barisan Nasional will have a minimum swing of 10% voters for the 13 General Election ?
1.       1% Swing of Online Media Political Penetration
-    Back in year 2008 Barisan Nasional is basically handicapped in the Cyber Space. But then now a lot of investment and development of new online troopers , online media and bloggers already came into the battle after Mac 2008 to fight politically in the cyber space.
-    10 000 Barisan Nasional total Cyber Troopers ( quoted by Saifuddin Abdullah ). Development of few neutral online media ( Malaysia Today , Free Malaysia Today ) and also a list other pro BN Media portal with the list of at least easily 1000 new bloggers in the cyber space. In addition to that a list of Barisan Nasional leaders , ministers , supporters and members had fully used the social networking like Facebook , Twitter and Youtube to reached out to Malaysian voters is already a clear indication where BN is no longer handicapped in the cyber space this round
-    Let us just be pessimistic where we just take 1% of the total online market. Even just 1% compared to last round 0%.
2.    1.0%  Swing of Pakatan Rakyat Internal Fighting
-    There nothing abnormal about internal fighting in any political party but then the political reality had reached a point where Pakatan Rakyat internal fighting is way had increases tremendously after Mac 2008.
-    Is normal for any political party or entity when they came into power where there will be personal dispute regarding the allocation of position , wealth , projects and etc. Whatever given to A then B , C and d will be unhappy and whatever given to B then A ,C and D will be very unhappy. Is not easy to please everybody.
-    In Selangor DAP itself the fraction had split between Tersesa , Ronnie and Teng Chang Khim fractions. PAS national split between the Professional and Ulamak. While in PKR there split between Azmin Ali and Khalid Ibrahim. Even in Penang there a great dispute between Karpal Singh and Ramasamy. While in Perak DAP the Ngeh & Nga vs Kulasegeran fractions.
-    Let us just be also pessimistic. We just take 1.0% of swing from those unhappy voters and supporters included those who is being sacked , resign or leave any of Pakatan Rakyat political party. 1.0% from Pakatan Rakyat internal fraction.
3.    1.0 % swing do or die battle for Barisan Nasional
-    In any war or battle the individual or entity that is facing their last political survival and in desperation will do everything it takes to fight the war.
-    In the olden days Barisan Nasional component party took the general election for granted and very lightly but as we can see this round both Najib ( UMNO ) and Chua Soi Lek ( MCA ) is going all out for an extremely very brutal and aggressive political campaign and battle .
-    We also have to admit the facts where in the past there a lot of internal sabotage within Barisan Nasional component party.
-    We just take even MCA for an example where their membership is more than 1 million Malaysian Chinese.
-    Their previous Mega 10 Mega Dinner manage to create a history in MCA where they hit 6000 – 150000 crowds in all the division or states that they have organized.
-    Even just another 1.0% swing ( extremely pessimistic ) this round then this factor will contribute another 1.0% of swing voters for BN.
4.    1 % Swing of Tun Mahathir Factor
-    Not even a single political analyst had written off Tun Mahahtir contribution and influence in Mac 2008 General Election
-    This round no doubt politically he still do have his own personal agenda but at least he is now back towards BN and UMNO and actively campaigning for UMNO
-    Although last round he play an extremely crucial role in the last General Election but this round we just be pessimistic to get just another 1% swing of our Malaysian under Tun Mahathir influence and switching back of his support towards Barisan Nasional and UMNO.
5.    1% Swing of Malaysian Malays and Indians Voters
-    Although many political analyst had predicted that Indian voters has swing back from as low as 20% back then to now as high as 60 – 65% and also the swing of 65-75 % of Malays voters this round
-    We again be just pessimistic to get another swing of 1% from this race category of voters this rounds
6.    1% of Promises Not Delivered and List of Pakatan Rakyat Scandals and Problems
-    Is a norm for any political party when they became they government they will usually be in the position to be attacked by the opponent or people.
-    Since after Mac 2008 Pakatan Rakyat first time in the history had manage to take over 4 states in Malaysia. No doubt that under their administration they are both good and bad development and changes.
-    Just let say we take those people who just look at their weakness and mistake and also not happy with a list of promises that they fail to deliver , list of scandals that prove that they are no difference from BN and also some who never personally felt there any much changes after Pakatan Rakyat took over.
-    Let us be pessimistic again. We just take another 1% of category swing of voters from this category.
7.    1% swing of Chinese Voters
-    BN is currently just having about 20-30% of the Chinese segment of voters supporters
-    MCA had been very aggressive to give us funding to all the Chinese School development and also with the help from the Federal Government.
-    MCA also had been very vocal and assertive and PAS HUDUD Issue
-   MCA under Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek is way much more strategic , pragmatic , strong , brave , more united and currently running on high spirit , morale and momentum
- There also a list of MCA new development funding like 1 MCA Medical Care, Education Loan , Micro Credit and etc that had benefited thousands of people.
- MCA will not only retain its 15 parliament seats but it may even see its seats increase to 30 or so if it can talk common sense like what Chua Soi Lek said about hudud. ( Raja Petra )
-    Just be pessimistic  again where let say there just another even 1% swing of Chinese voters who buy this few factor .
8.    1.%  Swing of Voters for Malaysia Economic Strength under Barisan Nasional
-    Malaysia is the 12th most competitive economy in the world for doing business, according to the 2013 edition of The World Bank’s “Doing Business” report.
-    Malaysia National Debt is better than Singapore , France , Germany and United States
-    Malaysian : An Asia Tiger Economically (Wells Fargo Bank )
-    Malaysia : Asia’s 5th most popular destination for FDIs in the World
-    The Financial Times has described this as a gravity defying growth country
-    Malaysia : 3rd Largest IPO in the World
-    Malaysia remains within the top 20 percent of 144 countries in the latest Global Competitiveness Index 2012-2013
-    Out of all this good factor we belief a lot of investor , Chinese Malaysian who invested a lot in share market , businessman and overall Malaysian where just another 1% of swing of voters this round for Barisan Nasional economic and business stability .
9.    1% Swing of Najib Leadership
-    Nobody can ever deny that Najib is a way much more political genius and strong leader if were to compare to Mac 2008 Pak Lah.
-    A few factor like releasing HINDRAF leaders , abolishing NEP ,AUKU and ISA and list of other transformation programs .
-    We just be pessimistic where just another 1% swing of voters who buy his list of liberalization and transformation under his leadership.
10.     1% swing of Barisan Nasional Budget 2013
-    The reduce of 1% incomtax , RM 500 hand outs , RM 200 phone debate for the youth and whatever that political analyst claim or accused is a vote buying or whatever. But then nobody can deny the facts that politics will still be politics at the end of the day. Be it is real vote buying or not but we just take even just 1% of the total voters who manage to switch their voters for the benefits that they have received for this round.
I just trying to be extremely pessimistic where I do not include a lot of other factors that might also contribute to vote swing back towards Barisan Nasional. Example like the fear of political instability , the myth of May 13 , the crash of share market , the fear of losing jobs and etc etc.  Even if Pakatan Rakyat want to accused Barisan Nasional for playing cheat with the new number of voters and whatever you name it but as I had said earlier where politics will always be politics. Politically those accusations only benefit BN politically in the General Elections. Just take that 10% of swing voters. Last round BN still lead Pakatan Rakyat more than 30 seats. So what if this round we just take another swing of 10% voters?
Even if you want to pessimistic again where there are other factor where other voters will swing back to PR or there so problems in my analysis then let say we reduced it by another 50% . At the end of the day there will be still 5% of the total voters swing back to Barisan Nasional.
Any Pakatan Rakyat columnist , troopers , bloggers , supporters , members and leader can rubbish my analysis and prediction but then that just shows that I will be having another extra 1% of voters swing where Pakatan Rakyat had became overly arrogant  , overly confidence and taking things for granted and lightly and had became like how Pak Lah won comfortably in 2004 and becoming overly confidence to take things to lightly and lost badly in 2008.
In conclusion Barisan Nasional will still win in the next general election. - 1sya.com


  1. "Why do we need to retain Barisan Nasional (BN)? Why must Datuk Seri Mohd Najib Tun Razak continue as Prime Minister? The answer is simple. Because we want development, prosperity, peace and harmony," he said in his speech at the Libaran, Kinabatangan, Sandakan, Batu Sapi and Beluran Umno delegates meetings.

  2. Umno here is confident that it could win again all three seats in Kinabatangan parliamentary constituency in the next general election.

  3. UmnoBN very important in order for them to maintain good relations among them.


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