Malaysia’s first buy-election

And this was when the Pakatan Rakyat people said I was opposed to a change in government. I never said do not change the government, as what I was accused of saying. What I said was just changing the government would not see change unless we can accept the entire concept and full package of change. Changing the government without a revolutionary paradigm shift is merely old wine in a new bottle.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Free fishing nets for fishermen and annual good service incentive for taxi drivers are part of the Penang Pakatan manifesto.

(Free Malaysia Today) - Pakatan Rakyat will give away two free fishing nets annually, one worth RM400 to RM500, to each onshore fisherman in Penang if it gains another mandate to rule the state. In a similar move, Pakatan is also throwing goodies to taxi drivers as well by giving them RM600 annually as a good service incentive.

All these promises will feature in the state Pakatan manifesto scheduled to be launched at Hotel Vistana in Bayan Baru on April 15. Pakatan and PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim is scheduled to grace the event as the guest-of-honour.

In announcing this today, DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng said between 5,000 and 6,000 fishermen and registered taxi drivers in the state would benefit from the programme. “These are ‘peek’ information on our manifesto,” he told a press conference at Wisma DAP. Among Pakatan state leaders present were DAP chief Chow Kon Yeow and PKR vice-chairman Abdul Halim Hussain.

All this while, Lim said successive state governments, including his Pakatan administration, have not carried out any welfare programmes to benefit these groups because those economic sectors were under the federal purview. He said Pakatan planned to give away the gifts because it did not want these groups to be marginalised and sidelined from state welfare benefits any longer.

He believes Pakatan’s gestures if implemented would be an incentive booster for both the fishery and tourism sectors. He clarified that taxi drivers would be all those who come under the universal understanding of taxis, which would include hired cars and airport limousines as well.

If re-elected, he said, Pakatan would disburse the goodies correctly to only registered taxi drivers and active fishermen. Under Lim’s administration, cash gifts were given out to senior citizens, single mothers, disabled persons and even for death.

*************************************

It depends on how you want to look at it. Malaysia’s 13th General Election is either the first Presidential Election between Najib Tun Razak and Anwar Ibrahim or it is the first buy-election where both sides are buying votes.

In the past, the buying was very one-sided. It would normally be the government or Barisan Nasional buying the votes. Today, both sides are doing it. In that sense, Malaysia has finally achieved a two-party system.

In fact, this is quite true -- that we are seeing the emergence of a two-party system. For the first time in history, Pakatan Rakyat has a real and genuine chance of forming the new federal government. This has never happened in the past. Today, even the top bosses in Barisan Nasional admit that there is a clear and present danger that the ruling party may actually lose power.

The bad thing about this is that the top bosses in Pakatan Rakyat know this. In fact, even the taxi drivers and vegetable sellers in the market know this. And because of this Pakatan Rakyat and its supporters have turned arrogant and over-confident while those from Barisan Nasional have become very worried and extremely cautious.

Arrogance and over-confidence is bad. It causes you to make mistakes. Very worried and extremely cautious is good. You never take things for granted.

If I were asked how I would rate the chances, I would say that Pakatan Rakyat has a chance of winning 95-100 Parliament seats. It also has a chance of retaining Kelantan and Penang but with a slightly reduced majority in both federal and state seats.

Barisan Nasional can win 80-82 Parliament seats in West Malaysia and 30-35 in East Malaysia. The ‘non-aligned’ parties from East Malaysia can sweep about 12-15 seats with about 10-12 going to DAP (from the current two).

For all intents and purposes, we are going to see a hung-parliament of sorts with the ‘third force’, if I may be permitted to call it that, deciding who gets to form the federal government.

Selangor, Perak, Sabah and Negeri Sembilan are, at this point of time, a 50:50 situation (as are the 13 Wilayah Persekutuan Parliament seats where it is 7:6 in Pakatan Rakyat’s favour from currently 10:3). These four states can go either way and there are just too many ‘internal factors’ from both sides that will determine the outcome (selection of candidates being one main factor).

And that is why I say Malaysia, at last, is seeing a two-party system emerging with the third force being the kingmaker.

Is that good?

Well, it depends on your Christmas wish. If you wish to see Barisan Nasional retain power with a two-thirds (or close to two-thirds) majority then it is not good. If you wish to see Pakatan Rakyat take over then it is also not good. But if you want to see a balance of power with no one political grouping having absolute power then it will definitely be good.

If you can remember what I wrote soon after the 2008 General Election regarding a two-party system and a unity government (which the majority of you profusely opposed) then you can see that the last scenario would be very palatable to me.

If you can remember why I mooted the idea of the Malaysian Civil Liberties Movement (MCLM) in 2010 and why we launched the ‘Independent Candidates Initiative’ (targeted at a minimum of 10 and a maximum of 30 candidates), and which also many of you profusely opposed, you will also see that the last scenario would be very palatable to me.   

Unfortunately, the two-party system, the unity government, the Independent Candidates Initiative, etc., all did not go down well with the majority of you. In fact, the top leadership of Pakatan Rakyat made it very clear that they would not support all these ideas. To add insult to injury, they even said that Barisan Nasional was behind MCLM and that the objective was to trigger three-corner fights to help Barisan Nasional win the election.

I could see that not many could accept new ideas when they feel that Barisan Nasional is finished and that Pakatan Rakyat is poised to take over. Why the need for new ideas when you have practically won the fight? Only if you do not win do you need new ideas on how to win.

No doubt, everyone is talking about change. However, to most people, change merely means changing the government. I do not disagree with changing the government. Hell, even here in the UK I became a member of the opposition party and voted opposition so that we could see a change in government. But what I was trying to impress upon Malaysians was that change means more than just changing the government. Change needs to come in a bigger package than just changing the government.

And this was when the Pakatan Rakyat people said I was opposed to a change in government. I never said do not change the government, as what I was accused of saying. What I said was just changing the government would not see change unless we can accept the entire concept and full package of change. Changing the government without a revolutionary paradigm shift is merely old wine in a new bottle.

But that argument was lost on most people. Hence what I needed to do was to sit back and allow the 13th General Election to play itself out. One of the issues I raised that needed addressing to avoid three-corner fights, inter-party bickering, intra-party bickering, internal sabotage, and so on, was by deciding on the seat allocation and choice of candidates early and not at the eleventh hour.

Today, we are seeing the logic in that appeal we made to Pakatan Rakyat and I really need say no more about the matter.

If the 13th General Election is going to be decided by who can promise the voters more and better gifts and handouts, then we are still a long way away from change. The ‘future’ that we are talking about and fighting for is all about how much money we are going to receive. How long would that money last? Even if it is RM10,000 per voter or per Malaysian is that going to guarantee us a good future?

I am 62. Most of you who are nearing that age will know that at that age we are concerned about our health. Can I be assured of a good healthcare system to look after me until I reach the age of 77 or 82 (if I get to live that long)?

I am a grandfather of five grandchildren and maybe by the time I die I will have 10 or more grandchildren. Will my grandchildren receive the best education to help them survive in a borderless and globalised world?

Malaysia is badly divided racially with a serious problem of religious intolerance. Is Malaysia’s political culture conducive to improving this ethnic and religious divide or does it, in fact, make the problem worse?

Malaysians live in gated communities with security guards patrolling the neighbourhood and iron bars on their doors and windows. They also face the risk of their handbags being snatched as they drive on the highways or walk on the streets. Are you happy with Malaysia’s security situation?

Malaysia’s election fraud plus election violence is beginning to make the country look like one of the tin-pot regimes. How many of you are going to leave town or are going to lock yourselves in your homes on Polling Day on 5th May in case we see another ‘May 13’?

Those are the issues close to my heart alongside good governance, transparency, accountability, eradicating corruption and abuse of power, and so on. And RM10,000 to vote for any particular party is not going to see these issues resolved.

And while we can certainly blame Barisan Nasional and Umno’s 56 years rule for all these problems, Pakatan Rakyat needs to convince us that a change of government is definitely going to see these problems get resolved.

Our worry should not be about winning the election. Our worry should be about what would we do if we do win the election. That is when the work really begins. To most of you, however, winning the election is not when the work begins but when the problems end.

And that is what concerns me because once we make our bed we will have to lie in it.