Hadi will win PAS polls but damage done, say analysts

Ahmad Awang, the former PAS Perak commissioner, announced yesterday he will run against Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang for the presidency. This is the first time in PAS’s history that the top post is being challenged. – Pic courtesy of PAS, May 15, 2015.

Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang will likely retain the top post during PAS’s elections next month, but the long-term president’s image has taken a hard hit simply because he was challenged, said Universiti Malaya (UM) historian Professor Datuk Dr Redzuan Othman.

The former UM Centre for Democracy and Elections (UMcedel) director compared the upcoming battle between Hadi and Ahmad Awang with the contest between Sulaiman Ahmad, popular known as Sulaiman Palestine, and Tun Hussein Onn for the Umno presidency in 1978.

“Given the mood and strength of Hadi’s supporters, Ahmad will not win. But then again, nobody expected Sulaiman Palestine to win, yet it dented Hussein’s leadership,” Redzuan told The Malaysian Insider.

He said when a leader found himself challenged for the first time, then winning no longer mattered.

“It would be difficult for the challenger to win, but the fact that the challenge was mounted in the first place is enough to send a message. A leader would realise his place and think twice,” said Redzuan.

Redzuan was commenting on Ahmad’s decision to challenge Hadi for the Islamist party’s top post.

Hussein, Malaysia’s third prime minister from 1976 to 1981, defended and won the Umno presidency in 1978 from Sulaiman Palestine, who was then the party’s information chief.

Ahmad, the former PAS Perak commissioner, announced yesterday that he offered himself because PAS needed a leadership change after being led by Hadi for more than a decade.

"This is a party that practises democracy and we want to strengthen the party," said Ahmad, 79, after submitting his candidacy at the party headquarters yesterday morning.

Political analyst Ibrahim Suffian echoed Redzuan’s belief that Ahmad would likely lose, but said the fact that Hadi was being challenged showed how not all in PAS were happy with his leadership.

Ibrahim, who is the director of independent pollster Merdeka Center, said Hadi had to secure a large victory margin to maintain his credibility and image.

He said Hadi had the upper hand as he was the incumbent and part of the dominating ulama faction in the Islamist party.

But without a huge winning margin, “his image will take a blow and he will have to regain the confidence of the members and PAS voters in the next general election”.

He said the contest also indicated healthy competition and democracy in PAS and contrasted this with other political parties which made decisions in private.

“The contest shows that the wishes of the PAS delegates and members are respected,” said Ibrahim.

PAS has been hit with internal strife because of differing opinions among the three component parties of Pakatan Rakyat, which include DAP and PKR.

Among them was the move by PKR to replace Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim as the Selangor menteri besar and the by-election for the Kajang state seat.

The Selangor saga was prolonged when PKR president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail was picked as the candidate for the menteri besar’s post, which PAS disagreed, despite PKR and DAP agreeing that only one name should be submitted to the Selangor Sultan.

The fraught relationship between PAS and its component partners was worsened by PAS Kelantan's decision to table amendments to the Shariah Criminal Enactment 11 in the state, in a bid to pave the way for hudud to be implemented in the state.

Following that incident, a few PAS members decided to set up Persatuan Ummah Sejahtera Malaysia (PasMa), a cell within the party, for the purpose of strengthening the opposition pact.

Kota Baru PAS initiated the move to sideline Hadi in the party by nominating a challenger to the top post, and this has led to several divisions naming either Ahmad or Datuk Husam Musa as their choice for president.

However, Husam will most likely sit out on the race as he is unwell and recovering at home.

He has not attended the past two PAS central committee meetings in Kuala Lumpur, and was also absent during Pakatan Rakyat’s ceramah in Kota Baru recently, where he was scheduled to speak alongside DAP’s Lim Kit Siang and PKR’s Rafizi Ramli.

- TMI