`


THERE IS NO GOD EXCEPT ALLAH
read:
MALAYSIA Tanah Tumpah Darahku

LOVE MALAYSIA!!!


Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Interview with Former Petronas Advisor Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad

Image result for mahathir

The following is an interview done by someone with Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed, just after he was removed as the Advisor to Petronas.
Dr.  Mahathir bin Mohamad was the 4th Prime Minister of Malaysia. He held the post for 22 years from 1981 to 2003, making him Malaysia's longest-serving Prime Minister.

After stepping down as Prime Minister, Dr. Mahathir took on the role of Petronas Advisor in 2003.

On March 11 2016, the Malaysian government terminated the services of Dr. Mahathir, due to a political dispute between former Prime Minister Mahathir and the current Prime Minister Najib  Razak.

The Prime Minister's Office said in a brief statement that the Cabinet had discussed the actions of Dr. Mahathir, and decided that since he was "no longer supporting the current Government, he should no longer hold any position related to the Government."

========================================================

Question : The Malaysian government recently appointed former Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi to replace you as Petronas Advisor. Could you comment about this?

Dr. Mahathir : He didn’t perform so well as Prime Minister, and he eventually had to resign, and give way to the current Prime Minister, because he has a not-so-good reputation.  And in terms of capability also, he feels very little about other issues.  Maybe he knows something about religion, even then, not very deeply.  On matters of administration, although he was in the Administrative Service, but you know today, you need to know a lot about finance, about the economy, about politics, if you want to be the head of government.He lacked much of the things, the knowledge that he needs, that is actually why he was removed, or persuaded to resign.  So I don’t think he will perform so well.


_______________________________________________________________________________________

Question : In August 2015, the Petronas CEO told reporters that Petronas had RM 126 billion in cash reserves. *1*
 
And in January 2016, the Petronas CEO told reporters that Petronas had RM 88 billion in cash reserves.*2*
 
That's a RM 38 billion reduction in Petronas cash reserves in 5 months.  What is your opinion on Petronas current cash reserves?

Dr. Mahathir:  Well, Petronas is regarded by the government as some kind of cash cow. When the government is short of money, or needs to have some investment, usually they pump it off on Petronas.  

And currently, the government is really short of money.  They have mismanaged things, including borrowing huge sums of money. So they are in deficit.  And what we do know is that they have been cutting back on budgets, by 20% last year, and again 20% this year.  

I am told that Petronas was told to make up for the loss of government revenue.  And of course Petronas reply was that they need the money for their capex. They have to invest all the time.  I think the rumors are they were told “Look, you are a government company. You are 100% owned by the government. Whatever you earn belongs to the government.  You give the money to the government, then you can borrow.  If you need money, you can borrow.”

It would seem that the government finds difficulty borrowing.  So, asking Petronas, which has more credit-worthiness, I think, is the way for them to borrow.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Question : Petronas has recently stated that they may have to borrow money in order to pay their RM 16 billion dividend for 2016.  Petronas originally wanted to pay only RM 9 billion in dividends *3*for this year, but the government announced that Petronas was going to pay RM 16 billion in dividends for this year.  About a month ago, Petronas announced that they will likely have to go in debt in order to pay the government dividend this year.   Do you have an opinion about that?

Dr. Mahathir : Well, I think the government, as I said just now, is short of money.  Petronas will have problems paying them more than what Petronas can afford.  But the government is in such a desperate state, that they don’t care what happens to Petronas.  As I said just now, Petronas can borrow money more than the government can borrow.  So Petronas will have to cough up the amount of money that the government directs it to pay to the government.  


_______________________________________________________________________________________

Question : Petronas breakeven price for crude oil is estimated to be around USD $44 per barrel *4*, and around USD $65 per barrel for marginal fields. *5*
 
If oil stays around USD $40 per barrel as some predict, how does Petronas plan to handle the reduced cash flow?

Dr. Mahathir : Well, that will be a big problem for Petronas, because they have been planning on the basis of the oil price being above $80.  And now they are going to get half that amount, which means of course that their business plan cannot work.They cannot finance their projections of investment they have to make.  They have problems, for example, about the Canadian investment; still not able to produce.  And they may have problems with Turkmenistan and other places.  

So, it will be very tight for Petronas.  But if the government doesn’t squeeze it too much, I think it can barely… well, it can break even.  But if the government insists on Petronas paying the government large sums of money, as dividends or whatever, then I think Petronas will have a very tough time in the future.


_______________________________________________________________________________________

Question : Last year, Malaysia exported around USD $12 billion worth of LNG, and around USD $6 billion for crude oil.*6*  Malaysia depends more on LNG exports than oil exports. 
 
Last year, Petronas told reporters*7* that Petronas Floating LNG 1 breakeven price was around USD $10/mmBtu.
 
Current Asian LNG spot prices are around $4/mmBtu.
 
It appears that Petronas may lose money this year producing LNG on PFLNG 1.   

What is your opinion?

Dr. Mahathir : Well it’s obvious that it’s not going to have enough money to even operate their new vessel, this floating vessel, which they invested such a big sum of money.  And even the current liquefaction plant in Sarawak, I think they need gas supply, at well I think, certainly more than $4 per mmBtu.  So, if they cannot get that gas supply, they will not be able to earn money.  Either they force themselves to provide the gas at below their cost, their gas earnings from export gas would be very much reduced.

And always remember that 5% of the cost belongs to the states.  And that, they have to give.  If they devalue the cost of production, then the states are not going to be happy.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Question:  Petronas recently announced they will be cutting about 1,000 staff soon. That is approximately 2% of their staff.   Other international oil companies have cut their staff by 20% or more.   Do you believe that Petronas will be required to cut more staff later this year?

Dr. Mahathir : Malaysia doesn’t really like reducing staff or sacking staff, whenever they are in trouble.  But as you know, in the case of the National Airline, they had to downsize by about 6,000 staff, and this is really causing a lot of social problems, because these people cannot find other jobs.  And the severance pay, the compensation, is not adequate.  And now if you add in another 1,000 from Petronas, it will be very much resented by people, unless they can pay a good severance pay.  But I think Petronas would need to reduce more.  But I don’t think the government would allow it to reduce, because the government is very concerned about remaining popular, at some cost of course.  But if the cost is borne by other people, why not.  


_______________________________________________________________________________________

Question : Petronas is a well-run and internationally respected oil company.   What is your future outlook for Petronas after oil prices eventually recover?

Dr. Mahathir : Well if you have to do a lot of cost cutting and downsizing and things like that, and maybe it may not be able to operate marginal fields, and reduce production, which means of course reduced earnings, but it also means reducing cost.  The average cost must be lowered.  This is a problem for all oil companies, except for those who are producing on land, where the cost is about a few dollars only, like in Iran for example, or in Saudi [ Arabia ].  But Petronas is producing mainly offshore, and offshore cost is always high.  So Petronas will feel the lowered price much more than many of the other big people who can average out their offshore and their onshore production.


_______________________________________________________________________________________

Question : Petronas reports*8* to the Prime Minister’s Office.  As Malaysia’s National Oil Company, how independent is Petronas from the government?

Dr. Mahathir : Petronas is quite independent in its operations, but for guidance on policies, it goes to the Prime Minister.  When I was Prime Minister, I was able to get Petronas, for example, to go abroad, to go into other activities in the oil industry.  Because the normal National Oil Companies normally only collect royalties, they don’t get involved in the production, acquiring the engineering and all that.  But Petronas is different from other National Oil Companies.  They do everything.  Almost as if they are one of the multinationals.  So that is because they were directed to do.  

But the Prime Minister has a lot of influence on the strategy and the policies.  But the actual operation, Petronas is quite free.  But now, I think because of the squeeze on Petronas to get out as much financial support for the government as possible, if Petronas were to explore or need more capex and all that, then they may be, the government may not allow them.  So there is slightly less independence now than before.


_______________________________________________________________________________________

Question : The current Prime Minister is also the Finance Minister, and also the head of 1MDB, the government’s financial investment company.  Petronas reports directly and only to the Prime Minister's Office.   The Chairman of Petronas is also on the Board of Advisors of 1MDB.*9*  In March 2015, Petronas raised USD $5 billion via Sukuk (Islamic bonds).  Was this USD $5 billion raised by Petronas related to 1MDB debts?

Dr. Mahathir : I cannot say for sure.  But what happened with 1MDB is that, initially, it wanted to access the Terengganu royalty given to the state of Terengganu.  But Terengganu objected, because they [ would ] lose control of their own funds, so the next step was to set up a company, with 1 million Ringgit capital, and borrowing 42 billion Ringgit. Forty-two thousand times more than your capital! This is absurd.  

But of course, it means there must be a government guarantee.  So when the government guarantees that, well it has to ensure that there must be payment for the debt.  And if they had actually invested in real business, if they invest wisely, they may be able to repay their loans.  

But what is strange is that the terms of borrowing is very unfavorable to 1MDB.  They bought the power plants at above market value, and these are power plants which are about to lose their license; they are at the end of their license period they have.  So you could actually wait until they have no more license, then the government can acquire at fire sale price.  But they made a decision to buy at above market value.  That also means that there is a heavy burden on 1MDB.  It will not be able to repay the loan that is laid, they even assume the debt of the power plants.  So altogether they spent 18 billion Ringgit on that.  As you know, they recently sold it at below purchasing price.  So they definitely would have lost more than a billion Ringgit.  

The other investments are very fuzzy.  PetroSaudi, etc. and putting money in Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, and all that, we don’t know what happened to the money.  Obviously they are not earning enough to repay the loan.  And we don’t even know where the money is.  And so I think that it is 1MDB money which went into Najib’s private account.  He has not been able to prove that it is not.  I mean, he gave explanations which are ridiculous.  So, I suspect that it is 1MDB money which is stashed away in his account.

But you think money that is borrowed and put into your account, how do you earn enough to repay the balance?  So at the moment, the government has to stand guarantee, but the government has no money.  So indirectly, it has to squeeze Petronas, not directly for 1MDB, but squeeze Petronas to support the government.  And the government will then try to pay for the loans that they have taken.  And that too, they are not able to do.  

So they are in a very tight spot.  They are not able to service their loan, they have these heavy borrowings, and terms which are very bad.  For example, giving Goldman Sachs 10% commission, and the interest rate is 5.9%.  Normally government borrow at 3%.  I borrowed before from the Japanese at 0.7%, repayable over 40 years.  But this is terrible, the rate is very high.  So, whatever they do, they are going to be in grave trouble.  Because I can’t imagine any investment they make could exceed the rate of interest they have to pay on their loans.  So I think indirectly, Petronas will have … not contributed to 1MDB, but contributed to the government so that the government can somehow support 1MDB.  

And they have been playing around with the EPF money,  EPF has a lot of money.  And the other pension fund.  So, very indirectly, there will be some needs of the government which have to be met by Petronas.  



_______________________________________________________________________________________

Question :  The USD $5 billion raised by Islamic bonds 1 year ago by Petronas, how was it actually spent?  Petronas only gave a vague answer of “operational expenses”.  What was it used for, and why did they feel the need to borrow $5 billion dollars?

Dr. Mahathir:  I think when the government demanded Petronas to give them more by way of dividend.  And they said they need the money for their operations, and the government said you borrow the money, because we can’t borrow, you borrow.  So indirectly, Petronas has to support the government, because the government is in debt, and is having trouble.


_______________________________________________________________________________________

Question : The Canadian British Colombia LNG project, it’s US36 billion dollars, led by Petronas and a consortium.  With the cash flow problems with low oil prices,  Petronas has insisted repeatedly that they are going to go ahead.  I’m not sure they can proceed, because they are going to have to borrow some money to finance this US$36 billion dollar project. Do you believe that it’s going to be delayed for 5 to 7 years?

Dr. Mahathir :  How long it will be delayed I wouldn’t know, but from where I can see, and they never tell me about their finances, they only vaguely suggest that they have bought this reserve, and they have sold some of the reserve to somebody, to reduce their cost.  But still, their portion carries a heavy cost.  So, to operate, they need a lot of money.  This is not cheap business.  This is very expensive business.  They need billions of dollars.  Dollars not Ringgit.  And they cannot borrow that much.  They are going to have trouble. They will have to postpone things, and postpone again and again. I don’t know for how long.  But I think they are going to have trouble with this.


_______________________________________________________________________________________

Question : Are there any further comments you wish to say about anything?

Dr. Mahathir : All I can say is last night, I enjoyed a film, a TV broadcast from an Australian TV, I think TV 4 or something like that.  And it tells all the stories about Prime Minister Najib Razak.  Much more than can be told in Malaysia.  Because in Malaysia, everything is censored.  And people are afraid to speak.  Because if you are caught saying something against the government, you will be charged with sedition.  Now they have also indicated to the newspapers that I should be charged with sedition. 

So from internal sources, you can’t get any information.  But this Australian TV station came here.  They recorded a lot of things here, as well as interviewed many people, including myself.  And they were arrested for asking the Prime Minister what happened to the money that he has in his account.  They were detained for 2 days, and then they were released, and they were allowed to go back.  When they go back, of course, they told the whole story.  And the story they tell is very telling.  And I think people should look at that.  You get more information from that film than you can get from any source within the country.  


_______________________________________________________________________________________

End:  Thank you very much for taking the time to answer these questions.

Dr. Mahathir:  You’re welcome.

Links :

*1* https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/309078?google_editors_picks=true

Last week, during its financial results announcement for second quarter of financial year 2015 (2Q15), chief executive officer (CEO) Wan Zulkiflee Wan Ariffin admitted that the company is having cash flow problems that will force Petronas to dip into its RM126 billion cash reserves.


*2* http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/petronas-sees-three-more-tough-years-in-unsettling-environment-

While it has sufficient cash to go through the difficult period, Petronas also has “a lot of headroom” if it needs to tap the dollar market, Wan Zulkiflee said. The company has net cash of about 88 billion ringgit at the moment, he said.


*3* http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/dont-turn-1mdb-into-political-football-malaysia-pm-najib-tells-critics

"Petroleum prices have slumped and Petronas which gave a dividend of RM26bil this year have said that they can only give RM9bil next year. Where am I to go to make up the RM15bil deficit," Najib said.


*4* http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/03/03/report-petronas-likely-to-keep-deferring-contracts/

“We believe Petronas’ upstream core loss in the fourth quarter implies a net profit breakeven price of US$44 per barrel and that it is behind its opex cut target,” said UOB.


*5* http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2014/11/29/no-more-marginal-oil-field-awards-for-now/

According to Petronas president and chief executive, although the breakeven for marginal oil fields is US$65 per barrel, they will not look into any such proposals until the global price situation stabilises.


*6* http://malaysiansmustknowthetruth.blogspot.my/2016/03/sir-wenger-j-khairys-will-petronas-give.html

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-uFKnXXyb60J:https://themalaysianinsider.wordpress.com/2016/03/01/will-petronas-give-najib-gas-sir-wenger-j-khairy/ 
In 2015, Malaysia exported US$12.1 billion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) compared to only US$6.6 billion of crude oil.


*7*http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/139963/Industry_Counts_on_FLNG_to_Beat_the_Odds_and_Live_Up_to_Promise/?all=HG2

Without commenting directly on the project cost, PETRONAS Senior Vice President Colin Wong told reporters that the cost of the first unit, the PFLNG-1 to be installed in the Kanowit field, works out to within $10 per MMBtu.


*8* http://www.kpdnkk.gov.my/kpdnkkv3/images/KPDNKK/PDF/Akta-Akta/kpdnkk/Act%20144%20-%20Petroleum%20Development%20Act%201974_1.pdf

The Corporation  

3.     (1) Notwithstanding section 22 of the Companies Act 1965, relating to the names of companies, the Corporation shall be styled as the Petroleum Nasional Berhad or in short form PETRONAS.  

    (2) The Corporation shall be subject to the control and direction of the Prime Minister who may from time to time issue such direction as he may deem fit.

*9*  http://www.1mdb.com.my/governance/board-of-advisors

GOVERNANCE
Board Of Advisors …


No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.