MAHATHIR WON’T UNSEAT NAJIB, THE STRATEGIST PREDICTS

(FMT) – Prime Minister Najib Razak is likely to remain in office until the 2018 elections and possibly beyond, political commentator Donald Greenlees has suggested in an op-ed published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s blog, The Strategist.

Firstly, Najib retains control of Umno and can count on the support of its central leadership and an overwhelming majority of regional chiefs, Greenlees points out. To date, there is no evidence of a shift in support from the party’s Malay-Muslim base to encourage its leaders to desert Najib.

Former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamed can no longer influence Umno in this regard, Greenlees believes.

“Mahathir Mohamad ……. he can no longer treat the party as a personal fiefdom,” he claims, particularly after Najib “blocked the election of Mahathir’s son, Mukhriz, for an Umno vice-presidency,” in 2013.

Secondly, although there is some discontent arising from the 1MDB saga and the “softening” economy, those factors are unlikely to bring about the collapse of the government, the eminent scholar says, noting that the International Monetary Fund had recently commended the government’s efforts in “achieving macroeconomic and financial stability and setting up sustained medium term growth”

Also, while international investigations into the 1MDB scandal may be embarrassing for Najib’s government, it appears unlikely that those investigations will successfully prove anything.

1MDB issues are clouded in a mass of claim and counterclaim, the op-ed noted.

“Although many Malaysians are angry, there are probably more who are confused and fatigued by the scandal,” he writes, adding that Saudi Arabia’s confirmation last week that it was the source of the US$681 million “donation” has clearly worked in Najib’s favour.

Finally, Greenlees notes, the opposition is fragmented in the absence of Anwar Ibrahim, whose leadership days are over.

“There is no obvious candidate able to rally its diverse membership,” he writes.