The wave of defections to join former Umno vice-president Shafie Apdal's new party may grow stronger, analysts predict.
And it won't just be defections from opposition parties PKR and DAP, they said.
"Shafie is an influential leader. The ripples of his influence will surely be felt, and it can trigger a wave of leaders leaving BN," analyst Ahmad Atory Hussain told Malaysiakini.
Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas) professor Andrew Aeria echoed this sentiment, saying that overemphasis on 'Kuala Lumpur' (Peninsular Malaysia) issues, are driving the move to local-based parties.
"The opposition coalition has no vision for the rest of the country. Apart from throwing ‘sticks and stones’ on 1MDB.
"But the same also applies to BN, for the same reasons," Aeria said.
Ahmad Atory (photo), who is with Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), said the perception that Sabah is a safe seat for BN is no longer accurate, as many supporters have switched sides.
Shafie last month filed an application with the Registrar of Societies (ROS) to change the name of a Sabah-based party that he has taken over, which he has declined to name.
Several PKR and DAP leaders have since quit their respective parties to join "a local-based party", which is believed to be the new party being formed by Shafie.
Advantage over national parties questionable
However, whether a Sabah-based party has an advantage over national parties is questionable.
"I don't think so (it's an advantage). Why wasn't the local party factor raised (by Shafie and the opposition) before this?" Ahmad Atory asked.
Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) professor Zaini Othman said based on the past records, both DAP and PKR were able to get support and win seats, whereas the local Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) performed "dismally".
DAP and PKR won a combined 11 state seats in Sabah during the 2013 general election, while SAPP won none.
"So it won't be a matter of whether they are 'popular' or 'not popular', but (how) they strategise the 'rebranding' of the opposition image in the next election," Zaini said.
He added that if PKR, DAP and the new opposition party cannot come to terms, it would definitely impact their chances and performance in the next general election.
Shafie moved to form a new party after he quit Umno over his suspension as a member.
He was sacked from the cabinet, as rural and regional development minister, for criticising the 1MDB issues.-Mkini
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