Analysis: Harapan’s uphill battle to defend Kuala Kubu Baharu

The unveiling of Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional candidates for the upcoming Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election has ended speculation on potential contenders in the race.

Although there were other ideas on the table, both camps ultimately presented their most promising strategies, aiming to win the by-election by appealing to their respective support bases.

Previously, rumours swirled that Harapan could field Hulu Selangor Municipal Council (MPHS) councillor Saripah Bakar from DAP as a candidate to win over Malay voters. On the other side, Gerakan repeatedly appealed for another opportunity to contest the seat.

In the end, Harapan named Housing and Local Government Minister Nga Kor Ming’s press secretary, Pang Sock Tao, as the coalition’s candidate.

On the following night, on April 25, PN announced that Bersatu’s acting Hulu Selangor division chief Khairul Azhari Saut would contest under the coalition’s banner, despite vigorous lobbying from Gerakan.

While there is still time to change tack before tomorrow’s nomination day, the decisions made by both sides indicate a strategic re-evaluation and show that the contest for Kuala Kubu Baharu has already started even before the nomination.

Khairul Azhari Saut (right)

PN’s decision to pick a Bersatu candidate over Gerakan reflects a shift in strategy from courting Chinese Malaysian voters to doubling down on its Malay support base.

Meanwhile, Harapan’s move demonstrates DAP’s determination to consolidate its Chinese support base and avoid repeating its mistake at the 2014 Teluk Intan by-election in Perak, where it fielded Malay candidate Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud and lost.

Both changes are linked to Kuala Kubu Baharu’s shifting demography.

Increase in Malay voters

The state constituency is a mixed seat where Chinese voters originally made up the largest proportion, but this composition has changed over the decades.

The Malay electorate has grown from 32.7 percent during the 2013 general election to 49.3 percent in the 2023 state election, while the Chinese electorate shrank from 42.7 percent to 30.6 percent.

The remaining 17.9 percent are Indian Malaysian voters, and 2.1 percent are voters of other ethnicities.

According to calculations by Selangor DAP treasurer Ong Kian Ming, Harapan won as much as 99 percent of the Chinese support and 80 percent of the Indian support in Kuala Kubu Baharu during the Selangor state election last year, while Malay support was only 22 percent.

In other words, PN garnered nearly 80 percent of the constituency’s Malay voters in the state election last year.

Riding on a wave of popular support, PN also won 22 state seats in Selangor and deprived the Selangor Harapan-BN government of a two-thirds majority. The Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat and two of the state constituencies within it also fell to PN, leaving Kuala Kubu Baharu the only one still in Harapan control.

If PN is seen as leveraging its Malay support base to spearhead an assault to seize the state seat, Harapan’s move can be interpreted as stabilising its Chinese support base to shore up its defences.

But are Chinese voters still Harapan’s stalwart supporters?

Growing Chinese, Indian discontent

Following the controversies surrounding KK Mart and former Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak’s reduced sentence, there is a sense of disquiet within the Chinese community. The rising cost of living and the service tax increase in March further fuelled anger against the government.

Although the level of dissatisfaction is unlikely to turn into protest votes for PN, it could still mean a lower turnout of Chinese voters that is detrimental to Harapan’s chances at the by-election.

Likewise, there is also growing discontent among the Indian electorate with controversies such as Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s presiding over a religious conversion of an Indian Malaysian and the chastising of an Indian student.

The lack of an ethnic Indian minister following last December’s reshuffle is another point of contention.

Several quarters comprising former ministers, former Harapan leaders and allies, as well as NGO representatives are also mobilising a campaign in Kuala Kubu Baharu to “stab” Anwar by calling for Indian voters to boycott the election as a way to protest the government’s supposed neglect of the Indian community.

In Kuala Kubu Baharu, where Indian voters account for nearly 18 percent of the electorate, a successful boycott will undoubtedly hurt Harapan’s chances.

Ong, who is a political scientist by training, previously outlined three scenarios for the by-election, two of which would result in a defeat for Harapan.

Only one scenario saw Harapan holding onto Kuala Kubu Baharu, but even then, only by a margin of fewer than 1,000 votes.

However, tomorrow is just nomination day. Beyond that, Harapan still has 14 days of campaigning and therein lies the opportunity to turn the tide and secure its last stronghold in Northern Selangor.