N Sembilan political shift may ripple across states, analysts warn

 

Political analysts have warned that an alliance between BN and Perikatan Nasional in Negeri Sembilan could trigger a domino effect on Pakatan Harapan.

Commenting on the implications of BN assemblypersons withdrawing support for Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Aminuddin Harun, political scientist Wong Chin Huat told Malaysiakini that any fallout could influence the likelihood of early elections at both the state and federal levels.

“The danger (for Harapan) is setting a precedent of Umno-PN collaboration, which may pave the way for similar collaborations in Johor and Malacca’s early state elections,” he remarked.

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat

The Malacca state assembly will be automatically dissolved in December this year, while Johor’s election is due in April next year.

Last night, Negeri Sembilan BN welcomed cooperation with their PN counterparts, declaring that the two coalitions now have enough assemblypersons to form a new state government.

The five PN assemblypersons had stated their readiness to cooperate with BN shortly after BN announced a loss of confidence in Aminuddin.

BN - through Umno - controls 14 seats in the 36-member assembly, while PN has three seats under PAS and two seats under Bersatu. Together, they would have 19 seats, which is just enough to reach a simple majority.

Public perception

Commenting on this, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) political analyst P Sivamurugan said that Umno’s withdrawal could potentially affect Harapan-BN cooperation in other states.

“Negeri Sembilan could become a test case. If unresolved, it may encourage similar bargaining pressure in states like Perak or Pahang where coalition arithmetic matters,” he said.

In Perak, Harapan and BN formed the state government with 24 and nine assemblypersons respectively. Similarly, in Pahang, the state government was established by combining BN’s 19 seats with Harapan’s 10.

However, Sivamurugan opined that the issue could have a negative impact on public perception, particularly when it comes to young and urban voters.

“They may see prolonged elite conflict as distracting from bread-and-butter issues.

“They usually expect governance efficiency, transparency, and stability,” he explained.

Agreeing with this view, International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) political science associate professor Syaza Shukri expressed her belief that younger voters may be among those who disapprove of covert moves to bring down governments without an election.

International Islamic University Malaysia political science associate professor Syaza Shukri

“I think some of these voters would prefer to see something more concrete that justifies the need to withdraw support,” she said.

Blurred lines

Syaza also raised concerns regarding the relationship between hereditary rulers and elected lawmakers.

“This would bring into question how much sway and influence traditional leaders have on our democratic process,” she said.

Adding to this point, Sivamurugan commented that the issue has laid bare weaknesses within the existing system.

“The dispute highlights grey areas between adat authority, constitutional roles, and elected government powers.

“When boundaries are unclear, political actors may interpret institutions selectively, creating tension,” he said.

Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst P Sivamurugan

Umno’s move has been criticised by Harapan leaders, with PKR Youth exco Jalex Lee cautioning that trust, once broken, is not easily restored.

DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke likewise warned that any attempts to form a “backdoor government” in Negeri Sembilan would be akin to a betrayal of the people’s mandate.

Last night, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said he would meet Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim about the state’s administration.

Bernama reported the deputy prime minister as saying that he will also meet with the 14 BN assemblypersons to obtain an explanation regarding their actions.

Dispute among nobles

In May last year, factions within Sungai Ujong’s traditional leadership moved to remove its undang, Mubarak Thahak, citing 33 alleged breaches of customary law, with reports also linking some accusations to alleged violations of syariah principles.

On April 17 this year, a special sitting of the Negeri Sembilan Council of the Yang di-Pertuan Besar and the Ruling Chiefs was convened, during which Aminuddin said the council agreed to advise Sungai Ujong to accept Mubarak’s prior dismissal - an interpretation that was later disputed by other undangs.

Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Aminuddin Harun

Aminuddin reportedly said Mubarak’s dismissal had taken effect on May 13, 2025, under Sungai Ujong’s customary mechanisms.

But in an April 20 declaration and subsequent statements, Mubarak, together with the undangs of Johol, Jelebu, and Rembau, as well as Tunku Besar Tampin, challenged Aminuddin’s claim that the council had collectively endorsed his removal.

Former Negeri Sembilan menteri besar Rais Yatim also claimed that during the council meeting, the three aforementioned undangs and the Tunku Besar Tampin had disagreed with Mubarak’s removal.

He argued that Mubarak’s removal lacked validity because key ruling chiefs had not collectively agreed to it, raising constitutional and customary concerns over the process.

Questions likewise persisted over whether Mubarak had been granted sufficient opportunity to defend himself against the allegations. - Mkini