Negeri Sembilan upheaval will deepen mistrust in PH-BN pact, says analyst

 Sivamurugan Pandian says Umno’s withdrawal of support for the PH-led state government reflects a breakdown in communications between the coalition partners.

Negeri Sembilan BN claimed to have a simple majority to form the state government, with its 14 assemblymen joining hands with PN’s five representatives. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA:

 The political upheaval in Negeri Sembilan will likely deepen mistrust within the Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Barisan Nasional (BN) pact at the federal level, says an analyst.

Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia said Umno’s withdrawal of support from the PH-led state government reflects a breakdown in communications between coalition partners that otherwise work closely together at the federal level.

“Trust has been declining between PH and BN, with Umno saying it has not decided whether to continue working with PH in the 16th general election,” he told FMT.

Sivamurugan also pointed to the reaction of Negeri Sembilan menteri besar Aminuddin Harun, who said he was “shocked” and unaware of the move, as a sign of weak state-level coordination.

“It shows there was no prior consultation. That signals a lack of confidence in the relationship at the state level,” he said.

He said PKR would view the move as bad faith, and warned that trust might decline further unless immediate action is taken to investigate and remedy the root cause of the issue.

Sivamurugan also said the trust deficit could push both PH and BN to contest separately in the next general election, with PKR losing trust in BN, and BN believing it has regained enough political relevance to stand on its own.

“Publicly, they will stay together for now. But privately, both sides are likely mapping out solo contests,” he said, adding that Umno might also be seeking to assert its strength with Perikatan Nasional (PN) as it faces pressure to retain Malay support.

James Chin of the University of Tasmania said Umno’s move was opportunistic, taking advantage of the dispute involving the state’s undangs and the Yang di-Pertuan Besar, Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir.

He said it was also likely motivated by Umno’s desire to regain the menteri besar’s post it lost in the 2018 general election.

“They feel they will do well in the next general election, so they are taking the opportunity now,” he said.

The Negeri Sembilan crisis arose after Mubarak Dohak, the former undang of Sungai Ujong, announced the removal of Tuanku Muhriz as the Yang di-Pertuan Besar at a press conference with the three other undangs on April 19.

However, Aminuddin said the state government did not recognise Tuanku Muhriz’s removal, as Mubarak had been lawfully removed as undang on May 13 last year for contravening 33 customary laws.

His removal was affirmed by the state’s Dewan Keadilan dan Undang.

Yesterday, all 14 Umno assemblymen announced that they had withdrawn support for Aminuddin as the menteri besar. The state’s BN chapter then claimed it had a simple majority in the 36-seat assembly to form the state government, with the support of the five PN assemblymen.

Aminuddin, however, said Tuanku Muhriz wants him to stay on as the menteri besar until the issue of his majority support in the state assembly is “clarified”.

He said the state government would continue functioning as usual, although Umno assemblymen would no longer be part of the state executive council.

In Negeri Sembilan, the four undangs represent the main traditional districts or luak: Sungai Ujong, Jelebu, Johol, and Rembau.

They are the traditional territorial chiefs who play a central role in electing the Yang di-Pertuan Besar and advising on customary law under the state’s adat perpatih. - FMT