RON95 flushes out a July GE-13 date

As the public braces itself for the impact of an impending increase in the price of RON 95, Prime Minister Najib Razak is content to continue the guessing game of when the 13th General Election will be held as 'it is the nation's past-time', according to him.

However, despite speculation that GE13 may be put off until public anger over the price hike wears off, not all political watchers are convinced.

Pakatan Rakyat insiders told Malaysia Chronicle that Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim has kept reminding the top leadership to be prepared for a July General Election. As the Muslim fasting month starts on the 3rd week of July, this means that GE13 will be held before 20th July.

Although, the final decision is ultimately in Najib's hand and he could make sudden changes, there are several reasons and indications why the snap polls are more likely than not. These include;

1) the BN Government can no longer maintain the subsidy for RON 95;

2) Anwar's Sodomy II Trial is scheduled to conclude on June 30 and this will mean that he will be busy with the ongoing trial in the weeks preceeding the election, which is what the BN wants;

3) The Royal Commission of Inquiry panel for Teoh Beng Hock is to submit their findings and report to the Yang Dipertuan Agong on 24th June (this means that this matter will be out of the way once and for all);

4) the conspicuously shortened mid-year Parliament session starting from 13th June to 28th June (15 days is short indeed); and

5) BN banking on the Opposition to be unprepared and short of funds to run a general election campaign. This will be the greatest drawback for the Opposition.

Never enough money

Unexpectedly, RON 95 has emerged as the indicator for the GE date. Going by Minister in Prime Minister's department, Idris Jala's schedule, RON 95 would need to see an increase.

Although the BN Government will meet in June to decide on the price of RON 95, pundits expect them to defer the price increase so as to show voters that they care for the rakyat. Many will be duped into gratitude and may be persuaded into acknowledging that BN leaders are heroes of the people.

Then bingo! After the July General Election, the price of RON 95 will shoot-up like a rocket. And the public will then realise that they have been hoodwinked, but by then it will be too late to do anything as they have already given BN a new mandate.

According to political watchers, the main reason for the early polls is the element of surprise and to catch the Pakatan off guard.

The BN Government is already short of funds to implement their megabucks economic programmes.

They now also need funds to pay the substantial pay rise granted to school heads, principals and teachers as recently announced by the Deputy Prime Minister, Muhyiddin Yassin who is also Education Minister.

Seizing the day

If the BN wins big, Malaysia may well regress. Race champions like Perkasa's Ibrahim Ali will flourish and the minorities, the poor, the downtrodden and the marginalised may be further oppressed.

Once the BN, in particular the Umno elite, sees that racial and religious provocation works, they will continue to divide the races for GE14. And then GE15.

Admittedly, it is a very difficult task for Pakatan as the road to Putrajaya is rocky and strewn with landmines.

UMNO is banking on the Malay vote to stay in power. Pundits expect them to gerrymander the electoral rolls, increase voting streams and other tactics orchestrated by the Election Commission to help keep BN in power.

UMNO's votebank consists of the massive and over-bloated civil service, the armed forces, police, RELA, FRU, teachers, staff of government-linked companies, and so on. That is a few million votes already in the bag for UMNO!

Yet, some pundits remain optimistic the rakyat can prevail.

They expect the populace to continue to reject the BN and warn this time, UMNO will not be spared due to the overscandalous conspracies it has trumped up in recent months through Utusan and its own members against Anwar and the minorities.

No one can say Malaysia is not an interesting place to live in. The nation is surely at the crossroads. Will the people vote wisely in GE13?

Pundits say it is a choice between a slow and painful death, or seizing the day to once and for all break away from the mismanagement of the past.

- Malaysia Chronicle