Kuala Besut triggers a chain reaction: All hell may break loose at Umno's Oct 5 election

Despite an early boo-boo by PAS candidate Azlan Yusof  that he would not serve be able to his fellow constituents full-time, he still got 5,696 votes while UMNO’s Tengku Zaihan - with the full weight of UMNO and government resources behind him - only managed to get 8,288 votes.

Despite declaring Kuala Besut their stronghold, UMNO leaders still had to pump in RM477 million worth of election promises and in the end only managed to raise their majority by a meagre 158 votes!

So it is not surprising that other than the perfunctory congratulations, only Prime Minister and UMNO president Najib Razak has "hailed" the 'great' victory. But this is to be expected because it is Najib who has his skin to save!

Half a BILLION ringgit

Of course, his loyalists were also quick to claim that UMNO is still relevant to the Malay struggle and the successful defense of the state seat a reflection of the Malays' support for UMNO and its agenda.

But if these claims are true, then why was there a need for UMNO to spend and promise so much money to the people in Kuala Besut - to the tune of half a BILLION ringgit - the highest in by-election history!

The question is what would happen if UMNO had contested without the huge human and financial resources, unfairly and largely tapped from the government? Would UMNO have won? Would UMNO have been able to rely on just its brand name and integrity to win the election? The three-word answer is, Most Probably Not, and if it did, it could have been by a much reduced majority.

Be that as it may, UMNO is pretending to be cool and acting as if they have no serious problems. It is like the perennial problem that parents face. Sometimes as parents, we feel we have to hide certain things so as not to let our children be fearful or panicked on finding out about some impending disaster that the family may have to soon face. So too are pilots trained to show coolness and calm towards passengers when the plane has hit some any emergency or worse still is doomed to crash.

Likewise, top UMNO leaders feel they have to show cool and calm so as to assure their members that all is fine - SEMUANYA OK! - even though the truth may be that UMNO is on the brink of disaster.

Unable to crush or humiliate the Opposition

Those who are against Najib know that he would be desperate to win in Kuala Besut and win by an overwhelmingly majority. But despite all the efforts undertaken by Najib, the figures are pathetic. UMNO could only stretch its 2008 majority by a mere 158 votes and this really reflects badly on Najib. There is simply no escaping the truth, sorry to say.

Najib not only failed to deliver the humiliating, crushing defeat that his party wanted to be inflicted on the Opposition, he also failed to convince UMNO grassroots that he can survive without relying on the government's resources to bail him out.

He has finally announced the UMNO supreme council election date will be held October 5. This is probably the furthest back that he can delay. If he was on strong ground, the supreme council election would be held in September.

Presidency in focus

The main feature of the Umno supreme council election will of course be on his presidency. It is quite clear by now that there will be a contest. One of the candidates who will go head to head with him is likely to be his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin. Another is Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh.

At this still early stage, Razaleigh's chances can already be dismissed. Muhyiddin's are more interesting. Muhyiddin will need the full backing of former UMNO president Mahathir Mohamad to win. Is Mahathir ready to endorse Muhyiddin or is the wily veteran still 'horse-trading' with Najib?

Whatever Mahathir decides, time waits for no one. In the coming UMNO general assembly, some 145,000 to 150,000 delegates will have to choose new office bearers - 25 supreme council seats, a youth chief, a women's chief, 3 vice presidents, one deputy president and one president.

You can say the election would be the grand climax or culminating event of all the infighting in UMNO. Those, and there are many, who straddle two or more camps will have to make a choice; it is a damned-if-you-do and damned-if-you-don’t situation.

Contest whatever you like, but don't go for my chair!

Frankly speaking, despite all the maneuvering to maintain the current power status quo, there obviously has to be contest for the top posts including Najib's.

If there is no contest, then UMNO is doomed because of the present mediocre set up and certain problematic individuals clinging onto key positions. Without new blood in the hierarchy to rejuvenate the party, UMNO would continue to remain weakened and bereft of talent.

Najib of course knows this. He too wants contests otherwise he can't get all his men into the supreme council and other strategic spots. He would then always be at threat. The thing is, while he doesn't care if there are contests, what he doesn't want contested is his own president's chair!

Hence, the age-old excuse used by presidents beginning with Mahathir, that if all positions are open to contests then UMNO will again be split into several factions and become weaker, very vulnerable with bad blood all over.

That's true but the fact is, usually after a major election, UMNO members will gravitate behind the president because of the immense power he wields and the huge gravy train that he drives.

If UMNO cannot close ranks and consolidate given its near direct access into the national coffers, then something is very wrong with that president. Why isn't he able to unite the party? Is it because he lacks charisma and the critically-needed leadership qualities? Or does he or his team go out of their way to create trouble?

UMNO a bad reflection on the Malays

So expect a big fight come October 5, whether Najib likes it or not. UMNO leaders know their party is getting weaker by the day under Najib. UMNO lacks quality younger leaders. The party is as corrupt as ever if not more corrupt now than before.

Under Najib, UMNO has to publicly resort to cheating - not only in the general election but also at by-elections such as the latest Kuala Besut ballot. It says a lot about the party and its fading future that none have spoken out against this deterioration.

For a grand old party like UMNO to have to depend on 'gedebe' or political thugs like Perkasa's Ibrahim Ali, Zul Noordin and the Election Commission to save it is a disgrace.

For UMNO to have to keep waving the racist flag and scare-mongering against the non-Malays is an insult to not only to the party's founders but a direct slap in the face of the people it claims to represent - and these are the Malays.

UMNO's cheating is the Malays' cheating, its corruption, their corruption, its racism, their racism, its greed and immorality, their greed and immorality.

Life-support system

UMNO may have won 88 seats, the largest number of any political parties in the recent May 5 general election. But its future is less than bright.

After all, UMNO is 66 years old. It is like an old man who has been abusing himself all through the years and is now surviving on life-support.

To pull through, UMNO needs the government machinery, the police department, the Attorney General's office, the Election Commission, the mainstream media, all the ill-gotten funds and all the contemptible tricks it can slip under its sleeves.

This is why in the Kuala Besut by-election, UMNO had to use the proverbial hammer to kill a fly.

Any in future elections, UMNO will have to continue using bigger and bigger hammers. Eventually the hammer will become too big and heavy and could end up hitting UMNO on the head instead, shattering the party into smithereens.

Impossible? It has already happened to parties much larger, stronger and richer than UMNO!

Malaysia Chronicle