KUALA LUMPUR - Why Ali Rustam and not Zahid Hamidi? That's the immediate reaction to the news that the former Malacca chief minister is being investigated by the police for making allegedly seditious remarks against the Chinese community during a recent event in the city.
Of course, that's not to say Ali Rustam doesn't deserve to be probed and be probed thoroughly. But so does Zahid, the Home Minister and coincidentally Ali's rival for one of Umno's three prized VP positions.
In fact, many would say Zahid made the more controversial and seditious remarks. Many lawyers even believe the Home Minister should be arrested for inciting murder with his 'shoot-first' remarks, but then again Zahid is in charge of the police. So who would dare to investigate him, one wonders, given the current opaque system of governance in Malaysia?
Crucial 48 hours
With two days left to go to the main Umno election on October 19, what happens over the next 48 hours is crucial for Prime Minister Najib Razak and his predecessor Mahathir Mohamad.
By now, most Umno members would have formed an opinion about the talk that Najib had struck an informal pact with the three incumbent vice presidents. According to the party grapevine, in exchange for Najib's support, the trio agreed to back him in any internal tussle against the Mahathir faction.
All three incumbents are defending their posts and they are his cousin Hishammuddin Hussein, the Defense Minister, Shafie Apdal, the Rural Minister and Sabah Umno representative, as well as Zahid Hamidi, the current frontrunner in the VP chase.
But Mahathir wants an opening for his son, Mukhriz the Kedah Chief Minister. And usually, what the grand old man of the party wants, he gets!
Even now, Mahathir has refused to compromise and he can be expected to wage a 'deadly' war against the Najib team once the Umno election is over and Mukhriz is not in the VP lineup.
So, someone has to make way for Mukhriz. Who will it be?
Leveraging on Umno's hatred for the Chinese and the Christians
In Umno, it doesn't matter if you make nonsensical or downright evil statements that harm and hurt other communities. The main objective is to make the Malays seem supreme and to give them economic aid at the expense of the other races. Umno's hatred for the Chinese and Christians is phenomenal, built and nurtured by a succession of leaders that began with Najib's father - Abdul Razak Hussein, the country's second premier.
Hisham? High unlikely - but not because he is strong. For sure, he is popular with the grassroots but even most of them think he lacks the leadership oomph to take Umno anywhere. However, he is Najib's trusted cousin and Najib wants his own blood nearby to him. So it is a given that Najib will use all his powers and resources as the Umno president and the Malaysian prime minister to get Hisham re-elected.
The weak link and Mukhriz's opportunity
According to Umno insiders, it is not impossible that Zahid might use his influence to have the police launch a noisy probe against Ali, so as to whittle him down ahead of the Saturday balloting. However, the motive would not so much be for himself, although he would benefit too, but more to help Hisham.
What about Shafie, the last of the three incumbents? It is actually quit possible to topple this sex scandal-tainted Sabah leader. Shafie can be voted out if certain quarters including from his own state decided to betray him and get delegates to vote for other candidates even though these might hail from the 'semenanjung' (Peninsular or West Malaysia).
According to the Umno grapevine, Shafie has yet to 'settle' or tie up all the loose ends with his peers in Sabah. At one point, Sabah Chief Minister Musa Aman too had wanted to contest a VP post but was persuaded by Najib to withdraw.
So if Shafie fails to appease his Sabah colleagues, then it would provide Mukhriz with the opening he needs to get into the inner sanctum of the Umno power hierarchy.
Of course, Mukhriz would have to ensure that he beats the other two challengers Ali Rustam and Felda chairman Isa Samad. Not only must Shafie be pried out but Ali and Isa blocked off.
So perhaps, the picture on Ali Rustam and his sedition probe gets clearer now.
"But I think Najib has to compromise. Things can still change, we still have 48 hours but as of now, a Zahid, Hisham and Mukhriz lineup is not too bad for Najib. Put it this way, he has no choice but to accept because the political sentiment in Umno and the Malay community is still with Mahathir. You can see from the response to the Allah ban, which to me is preposterous, but the Umno folk seem to think Najib is delivering God to their doorsteps. The more he hits out at the non-Malays especially the Chinese and the Christians, the more they love him. So if Najib is to be heeded more than Mahathir, he has to be even worse than Mahathir. He has to be more cheating, more cunning, more two-faced, and more evil than Mahathir."
Ali Rustam muscled out again, Isa not seen as having any real chance
At a PUNB event on October 8, Ali had sizzled up Malay sentiment with the comment that the Chinese were to blame for all the "illegal activities" in Malaysia.
Ayer Keroh assemblyman Khoo Poay Tiong and Kota Laksamana assemblyman Lai Kuen Ban had lodged the police report against him.
“We can't have casinos, 4D, Toto, gambling, lottery, massage parlours, ah long. These are all illegal. And the Chinese are the ones dabbling with all the illegal businesses,” Ali was reported as saying.
On October 6, Zahid made himself notorious not only in Malaysia but around the world that the police here had 'shoot-first' and that was okay because most of the victims of crime in this country were "mostly our Malays".
Isa Samad, the former Negri Sembilan chief minister and third challenger, is not rated as having any significant chance.
MORE TO COME
Malaysia Chronicle
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