Umno game theory – Sir Wenger Khairy

The schism in Umno is getting bigger by the day. Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s big risk is that he is losing the Umno MPs. Datuk Sheikh Fadzir was responsible for detonating this on the Benchmark and he has openly expressed doubts on the PM.

From my profiling of Umno MPs, I have identified 26 "hardcore" PM supporters and 6 "hardcore" anti-Najibs. That leaves 56 Umno MPs who are "lalang" that will blow where the wind blows. I included Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz, Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed and Khairy Jamaluddin within the 26 hardcore Najib supporters.

If the DPM manages to "turn over" Nazri and Mustapa, then the PM loses 2 and the anti-Najib faction gains 2 more, so it will be 24 and 8. I counted Khairy as a "hardcore Najib" supporter but Khairy is facing increasing pressure within Pemuda Umno to speak out against 1MDB and that means speaking out against the PM.

Interestingly, despite the greater weight in numbers, only one of the 26 hardcore Najib supporters defended the Tabung Haji-1MDB deal. And it was none other than the Tabung Haji chairman himself, Datuk Abdul Azeez Abdul Rahim. The rest were silent, and some were actually critical of the PM. This does not bode well for Najib.

Umno is now entering a volatile period. Those who have most to lose if they back the wrong horse are now re-evaluating their stated position, and are most likely to switch. Take "cousin brother" Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein’s statement calling for an independent audit into 1MDB. This contrasts with "the cousin's" earlier statement dismissing Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s attacks as being nonsense. This statement means that "cousin brother" feels the ground moving and does not want to be considered as a part of the larger Najib legacy that ought to be thrown out if the anti-Najib forces succeed in the end.

Interestingly, Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi issued a long statement which betrays his position. He too was included as a "hardcore" Najib supporter in my initial profiling, but he has now openly admitted that there is a cancer in Umno which requires an immediate solution. The pressure is mounting on him as well to ditch Najib because there is an increasing view that Najib is a finished political entity and a political liability.

When he says he does not see the need to make a statement but makes a statement nonetheless, it tells people that he is evaluating his prior support and should be switched from being an 80% Najib supporter to something like 60%-40%.

The crux of the matter is this: do the political markets view Najib as a finished entity? Technically, Najib is finished if the anti-Najib faction gains the support of Zahid. With that, the anti-Najib faction will consist of 1 deputy president and 2 vice-presidents, enough to vanquish any lingering support the PM has among the undecided 56 Umno MPs.

Even though for risk purposes, the PM is counting on Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob as the counterweight to Zahid, Ismail's support in Umno is not on the same level as Zahid’s. Zahid is the game changer in this equation and if he switches support to Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s camp, then it is "sayanora" Najib.

So will Zahid switch camps?

Let's phrase this in a "game theory" manner, then you make your own conclusions.

Umno is destined for a messy split unless Najib is removed. All the characters in the 1MDB issue are associated with the PM and the public has shown that any dealings with 1MDB will be met with a wall of maniacal criticism. The PM's default strategy is to stonewall the issue for as long as he can so as to cause the issue to die a natural death.

This has been a failure, and rather than causing people to lose interest in 1MDB, the PM is causing people to lose confidence in his ability and annoying the grassroots to no end. Going through the last 5 months of 2015 was a nightmare for the government, and it seems that unless an immediate end to this problem is made, this issue will continue to annoy, irritate and anger the party.

The plus is that you can be made deputy prime minister if you decide to swing your support to the anti-Najib faction.

So if you were Zahid, tell me what would you do?

* Sir Wenger Khairy reads The Malaysian Insider.