ANALYSIS | The battle for Kedah is expected to be one of the most intense among the upcoming six state elections.
Voters in Kedah have used the ballot box to change the state government three times since 2008.
This means Perikatan Nasional’s major gains during the 15th general election (GE15) may not necessarily reflect current sentiments among the electorate.
One such battleground where Pakatan Harapan and BN are hoping for a major swing is Alor Mengkudu, where Kedah Harapan chief Mahfuz Omar will contest.
Simulations by Malaysiakini indicate that if Harapan can get 80 percent of their supporters in the constituency to vote, Mahfuz can win the seat - even if 10 percent of BN voters swing to PN.
The catch, however, is that Harapan and BN will need a 20 percent swing of voters away from PN for this mission to succeed.
If there is no swing, however, PN will more than likely capture Alor Mengkudu - which is in the Alor Setar parliamentary constituency.
Voting data from GE15 indicate that almost 60 percent of voters in the constituency voted for PN.
Mahfuz himself only bagged 23 percent of votes during GE15, resulting in him losing his Pokok Sena parliamentary seat.
The Alor Mengkudu battle will also be a rematch between Mahfuz and former footballer Muhamad Radhi Mat Din.
The two clashed for the Pokok Sena seat in 2018, with the Amanah vice-president emerging as the winner of that battle.
Kedah BN chief Mahdzir Khalid is taking a second swing at securing a seat after losing his Padang Terap parliamentary seat to PN in GE15.
Mahdzir will be making a return to the Pedu state seat - which is in Padang Terap.
He was previously the Pedu state assemblyperson for two terms from 2004 to 2013.
Mahdzir was also the menteri besar of Kedah from 2005 to 2008 and is speculated to be the Madani coalition’s candidate for office should they win the state.
PAS’ Mohd Radzi Md Amin won Pedu with just 43 percent of votes in 2018, while GE15 data indicate that just 54 percent of voters there voted for PN in 2022.
This means any drop in turnout for PN or a small five percent vote swing towards BN can result in a win for Mahdzir.
Caretaker menteri besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor won Jeneri with 46.3 percent of votes in 2018.
However, BN’s Sik division chief Muhammad Khizri Abu Kassim is in for a tough fight if he wants to unseat the PN election director.
About 67 percent of voters in the constituency voted for PN in GE15.
Lunas and Sidam were both won by PKR in 2018.
However, following the Sheraton Move, the incumbents for the seats - Azman Nasrudin and Robert Ling - both made the jump to Bersatu.
The Lunas incumbent Azman is now the Padang Serai MP and will be sitting out the state elections.
PN is instead fielding its Kedah information chief Khairul Anuar Ramli to face PKR’s Shamsul Anuar Abdullah.
With just 49 percent of voters in the constituency voting for PN last year, the contest for Lunas can go either way.
Over in Sidam, PKR’s Bau Wong Bau Ek stands a good chance at winning back the seat - where just 33 percent of GE15 voters cast their ballots for PN.
The incumbent Ling will be replaced by Juliana Abdul Ghani as PN’s candidate for Sidam.
Johari Abdul won the seat for PKR in 2018.
Now that he is the Dewan Rakyat speaker, it will be up to his son, Firdaus, to defend the seat.
His opponent is a footballer and long-time former Kedah Darul Aman midfielder Baddrol Bakhtiar.
About 48 percent of voters in Gurun chose PN in GE15, meaning the Madani coalition must get a high enough turnout if it wants to keep the seat.
Firdaus’ brother Taufiq succeeded Johari as the Sungai Petani MP after last year’s general election.
Other seats to keep an eye on
Other seats with less notable candidates but are susceptible to flipping include Pengkalan Kundor, Sungai Tiang, Bandar Baharu, and Kubang Rotan - currently held by Harapan and BN - as well as Kuah, Bayu, Pantai Merdeka, Kuala Ketil, Kuala Nerang, and Kupang.
The Madani coalition stands a chance at winning these seats if they can sway between five to 15 percent of voters away from PN and get a good turnout.
Otherwise, these seats are susceptible to being retained or captured by PN to give them an even bigger majority in the state legislature.
What about Pejuang?
Pejuang has two incumbent assemblypersons in Kedah, party president Mukhriz Mahathir in Jitra and secretary-general Amiruddin Hamzah in Anak Bukit.
While the party has voiced support for PN, Pejuang will not be contesting the state elections, and no members have been co-opted into PN’s candidate lineup.
How many seats does each coalition have going into the polls?
PN has 21 state seats - one of which Belantek was vacated after its incumbent Mohd Isa Shafie passed away last month.
Of the PN seats, PAS has 15 - including Belantek - and Bersatu has six.
Pejuang - which is not contesting this election - has two.
Meanwhile, Harapan has 11 seats, of which six are held by PKR, Amanah (three), and DAP (two).
BN has two seats, both represented by Umno.
What is the voting demographic like?
According to the 2020 census, Kedah is 80 percent bumiputera, 12.3 percent Chinese, 6.3 percent Indian, and 1.3 percent other races.
Of the seats being contested, six are mixed-race seats: Derga, Gurun, Bukit Selambau, Sidam, Lunas, and Kulim.
There is also one Chinese majority seat - Kota Darul Aman - and one non-Malay majority seat, Bakar Arang.
The other 28 seats have a Malay electorate of close to 70 percent or higher.
In the 15th general election, 54.8 percent of voters in Kedah cast their ballots for PN. - Mkini
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