Super majority under major threat

 

PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan is paying extra attention to a clutch of vulnerable seats in Selangor and Penang in the upcoming state polls, the loss of which could end the ruling coalition’s dominant majority in those state assemblies.

Long considered Pakatan’s crown jewels, Penang and Selangor are industrial heartlands and both contribute about 32% to the country’s total economic output or GDP.

Pakatan and its predecessor, Pakatan Rakyat, have held two-thirds of all seats in the Selangor and Penang assemblies. There are 56 seats in the Selangor assembly while Penang has 40.

In the 14th General Election (GE14) in 2018, Pakatan captured 50 out of 56 state seats in Selangor and 37 out of 40 seats in Penang.

Despite defections in the ‘Sheraton Move’ in February 2020, Pakatan has still managed to hold on to its two-thirds majority in both the Selangor and Penang state assemblies.

“This is the most likely scenario that Pakatan is facing in these two states because Perikatan managed to win a lot of support in GE15 (in 2022),” said a Pakatan official who requested anonymity.

Pakatan is aligning with Barisan Nasional in the state polls and will be facing Opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional.

Between 16 and 20 seats in Selangor and about 15 constituencies in Penang are under threat and could be grabbed by Perikatan.

Pakatan needs to control 37 out of 56 seats to maintain its two-thirds majority in Selangor, while in Penang, the coalition needs to hold 27 out of 40 seats.

“A lot of the hot seats in Selangor are in Malay-majority areas along the west coast, while in Penang there are about 15 Malay-majority seats that are under threat,” the Pakatan source said.

In Selangor, the state seats are part of the parliamentary constituencies of Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar, Hulu Selangor, Tanjong Karang, Kapar and Kuala Langat, which were won by Perikatan.

These state seats are Sungai Air Tawar, Sungai Panjang, Hulu Bernam and Sungai Burong that were won by Barisan in GE14; Batang Kali, Jeram, Kuang, Selat Klang, Dengkil and Permatang that were won by Bersatu while the party was part of Pakatan.

Three seats – Gombak Setia, Sementa and Lembah Jaya – were won by Pakatan, but their legislators have since quit Pakatan.

Sijangkang is the only seat held by PAS.

The rest of Selangor’s hot seats – Sabak, Morib, Sungai Pelek, Sungai Ramal, Tanjung Sepat and Sungai Kandis – were won and are still represented by Pakatan parties PKR, DAP or Amanah.

Political analyst Mohd Yusri Ibrahim said Pakatan’s strength in Selangor is mainly in its multiethnic urban areas, while its new-found ally Umno is strong among rural Malay voters.

“Although it suffered massive defeats in GE15, Umno generally still has a traditional base among Malays. In order to defend Selangor, Pakatan hopes that Umno can increase its support among Malays. If Umno manages to do this, it will be enough to blunt the Perikatan assault on Selangor,” said Mohd Yusri, who is head of research at polling agency Ilham Centre.

In Penang, the majority of the 15 fiercely contested state seats are under the Permatang Pauh, Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor parliamentary constituencies, which were captured by Perikatan from Pakatan and Barisan.

Bertam and Teluk Bahang were won by Perikatan party Bersatu in GE14, while Penaga was captured by PAS.

Permatang Berangan and Sungai Dua were both won by Barisan.

The rest – Pinang Tunggal, Teluk Ayer Tawar, Seberang Jaya, Permatang Pasir, Penanti, Sungai Bakap, Sungai Acheh, Batu Maung, Bayan Lepas and Pulau Betong – were all won by Pakatan parties PKR and Amanah.

Penang Pakatan leader Datuk Muhammad Bakhtiar Wan Chik said the coalition was confident of maintaining its hold on Penang and securing two-thirds of all state seats.

“I am sure we will be able to maintain or defend all of our Penang seats. Maybe one or two will be threatened, especially, the Malay-based seats,” said Wan Bakhtiar, who is also Penang PKR deputy chief.

“But I don’t think on the island side there are any problems, only on the mainland side.

“We are very, very confident of (maintaining) a two-thirds (majority) in Penang – it’s just a matter of making sure everyone is ready.” - Star