Will the ‘green wave’ turn towards Anwar?

 

Let me go on record as saying at the outset that I do not think there is a “green wave”.

I know that the Malay-Muslim electorate swung in favour of Perikatan Nasional (PN) at the 15th general election (GE 15) – I even predicted that – but I did not see the swing as a statement of intent or a projection of the permanent direction of the Malay-Muslim electorate.

Instead, to me, it was just the outcome of political developments leading up to GE15.

But even assuming there is a “green wave” of Malay-Muslim voters who voted in favour of PN in the last general election, there is no reason why it will not wash back in favour of Anwar Ibrahim at the upcoming six-state polls.

After all, the Malay-Muslims were originally staunch Anwar supporters. On the other hand, the Chinese and Indians stood by Dr Mahathir Mohamad, allowing him to secure a two-thirds majority in the 1999 general election.

Two dozen years later, the tables appear to have been turned, with non-Malay voters backing Anwar, while the Malay votes appear to be split in multiple ways, although a significant majority appear to support PN.

But those relationships are by no means cast in stone. At best, they reflected the self-interests of each community when GE15 rolled around in November last year. Perhaps, Anwar’s words were not as assuring to the Malay community then.

All that, however, may change overnight. If Anwar begins to gain support from the Malays, he will surely move to increasingly advance their aspirations and intentions.

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Contrary to popular belief, the Malays do not see Anwar as their enemy. In fact, they actually identify with Anwar.

While the non-Malays’ relationship with Anwar is based on self-interest, the Malays and Anwar have a relationship based on identity. After all, he is one of them.

If they did not stand behind Anwar during the 2022 elections, it was merely because it was not in their interests to do so nine months ago.

Things may well have changed since then.

Anwar today looks like he is willing, desirous, capable and able to protect and forward the rights and interests of Islam and the Malays.

Perhaps the most recent example of this is his action to waive RM 8.3 billion in debts owed by Felda settlers. By doing so, he is sending out a clear signal that he has the interests of the Malays at heart.

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His refusal to commit to secularism and his personal assurance that usage of the term “Allah” by non-Muslims will be restricted to East Malaysia, are also signals that Anwar is sending to the Malay electorate to indicate his desire to defend their rights and interests using his office and in his personal capacity.

If these and several other signals he has sent out during his tenure as prime minister are well-received by the Malays, then there is no reason why they would not withdraw their support from PN and bestow it on Anwar.

After all, it is the logical thing to do since he is the one in power.

If indeed Anwar has improved his standing among the Malays, he is likely to secure victory in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.

With Sanusi Nor floundering recently and Terengganu in a mess, Anwar might even be seen as the saviour of Kedah and Terengganu.

(He may, however, have a lot more work to do to turn Kelantan around.)

Meanwhile, Muhyiddin Yassin, Hadi Awang and Mahathir Mohamad all appear to be losing their charm.

On top of that, the extremist positions on race and religion that they are minded to take may not be seen by the Malays as being in their best interests presently.

Anwar, on the other hand, is by far the most powerful Malay leader in the country today.

The Malays may well decide that the time has come to nail their colours to his mast, since he is the one in the best position to advance their interests. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.