Sg Bakap polls will gauge Harapan-BN's true support, say analysts

 

The Sungai Bakap by-election will be a yardstick to gauge the level of support for the Pakatan Harapan-BN coalition government, an analyst said.

Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) political science lecturer Zaharul Abdullah said this is because Perikatan Nasional seized the state seat from Harapan in the last state election after the latter had held it since 2008.

According to him, PN’s victory was made possible by the majority of BN supporters switching their support for the former.

“Therefore, the by-election would be a testament of whether Harapan-BN can regain the voters’ support and deny PN’s ‘Green Wave’,” Zaharul told Malaysiakini.

He pointed out three challenges awaiting Harapan-BN in regaining the seat.

“Firstly, (addressing) the sentiment among the Malay-Muslims that Islam is under threat under the Madani administration. Harapan and BN should dismiss this sentiment and convince the Malay voters that their rights will always be preserved.

“Secondly, the rise in cost of living due to diesel subsidy rationalisation. Championing social justice alone is not enough as it needs to be followed up with increased aid to the people, including cash disbursement to target groups,” he said.

The third challenge would be convincing the rakyat of the government’s achievements, including steps to handle the rising cost of living, Zaharul noted.

He added that the upcoming by-election would also be decided by turnout as PN’s winning majority during the last state polls was 1,563 votes.

“If the voter turnout falls from 77 percent (in the 2023 state election) to 72 percent (or lower) in the coming by-election, I see Harapan-BN having better chances of seizing the seat from PN.”

Regaining lost Umno support

Universiti Malaysia Perlis (Unimap) political analyst Muhammad Izmer Yusof said there would be two possible outcomes in the Sungai Bakap by-election.

PN could either retain the seat via status quo or Harapan could wrestle it back due to increased support from civil servants, as witnessed in the recently concluded Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election, he said.

“These two factors would decide the winner of the polls, aside from voter turnout,” he told Malaysiakini.

The by-election would also answer whether Harapan has managed to lure Malay voters away from PN, Izmer added.

“We will witness whether Umno supporters (who previously sided with PN) would return to support the Madani government.

“We also have to take into account voter fatigue following continuous elections since 2022 until now. The rakyat may be tired of (political) rhetorics,” he said.

The rakyat may be engrossed with handling the rising cost of living and staying afloat in the challenging economy rather than be bothered with political campaigning, he added.

“Harapan has to spin its narrative around these issues to steal the lost Umno votes back towards its ballot box.

“Personally, I see Harapan has an added advantage (in the by-election) as they are the sitting government and PN is holding the seat by a slim majority.”

The Sungai Bakap state seat became vacant following the death of its incumbent, Nor Zamri Latiff from PAS, on May 24 due to stomach inflammation.

The Election Commission will meet tomorrow to discuss the dates for the by-election. - Mkini