Seen as a ‘junior partner’ with little leverage, pundits say the party is at the bottom of the GE16 seat-distribution priority list.
For instance, the party will have a free hand to decide where to contest in future elections.
On the other hand, it will lose the advantages that come with being a partner in the government.
Lee Kuok Tiung and Syahruddin Awang Ahmad, both of Universiti Malaysia Sabah, said KDM has little political leverage since it only holds one parliamentary and one state seat.
With the next general election (GE16) looming, it will have little bargaining power if it continues to support GRS.
Lee pointed out that all six GRS component parties will be jostling for the 25 Sabah parliamentary seats up for grabs in GE16. He expects the fight to be particularly keen in key Kadazandusun Murut constituencies, areas where KDM is also eyeing.
“The chance of KDM being squeezed out is high given that it has never been a member of the coalition in the first place,” he told FMT.
Past support counts for little
Lee said that while KDM had expressed support for the GRS-led Sabah government after the 17th state election, it would remain at the bottom of the seat-distribution priority list.
“If KDM stays loyal to GRS, it will have to accept that component parties will get first choice of seats, in which case it is likely to lose the opportunity to contest in Tenom,” he added.
“And seats such as Kota Marudu, Kudat, Tuaran, and Keningau would definitely be claimed by GRS components, too.”
KDM currently holds the Kota Marudu parliamentary seat through deputy president Wetrom Bahanda and the Paginatan state seat through Rusdin Riman.
Riduan Rubin, who won the Tenom seat as an independent in the 2022 general election, later joined KDM but remains as an independent MP.
Wetrom has recently been linked to speculation about a move to Barisan Nasional.
On Saturday, KDM announced its withdrawal of support for the Sabah government, following confirmation that it was in talks to form an alliance with Warisan and Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) for GE16.
However, GRS secretary-general Armizan Mohd Ali said KDM’s sole assemblyman, Rusdin Riman, had decided to continue backing the state government despite his party’s decision.
KDM is currently led by Priscella Peter, the daughter of its founding president, former Warisan vice-president Peter Anthony. Peter is out on parole after serving a year of his three-year sentence for forgery.
A move that’s likely to backfire
Syahruddin expects KDM’s decision to backfire. “It will strip the party of valuable state patronage, resources and administrative power,” he told FMT.
He said most major players in Sabah would view KDM as a junior partner demanding disproportionate concessions when it has only one seat in parliament.
“With Rusdin breaking ranks and maintaining ties with the state government, KDM faces public embarrassment, severe internal friction and total political marginalisation.”
Syahruddin expects KDM to eventually hedge its bets and form multi-party pacts for GE16, in hopes of maximising its electoral chances and then backing whichever coalition forms the federal government.
“A multi-party seat sharing agreement remains its only viable survival mechanism,” he added.
Lee pointed out that the pact with Warisan and STAR was not binding or exclusive, giving KDM the flexibility to explore other possible electoral arrangements before GE16.
However, he warned KDM that voting patterns for state and parliamentary seats have often produced contrasting results.
Sabahans are known to back local parties in state polls and national parties in general elections.
“Now KDM has lost access to state government allocations and influence, while also facing the threat of having to contest alone if negotiations with other parties reach an impasse,” Lee said.
“A number of KDM’s main leaders are also likely to take a stance that prioritises Sabah’s political stability,” he added. - FMT
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