Why Mahathir wants GE-13 to be held early?

Elections are the defining moments that shape the future of countries. In politics, the change of office bearers and leadership is inevitable as has been proven in the recent Arab Spring, and the eventual challenge of Russian stalwart Vladimir Putin by Mikhail Prokhorov in the coming Russian presidential election.

UMNO too will have no power to prevent the changes within its political hierarchy, but to accept what its members want, unless some 'manoeuvres' are launched to maintain the status quo, albeit temporarily. The tide of change has finally come to UMNO and the force that triggered this tide is none other than the faults and wrong-doings of UMNO itself.

King-maker again

Mahathir Mohamad, the former UMNO president and prime minister, saw this happening and appears to be seizing the change in tempo as an opportunity to further his own personal agenda. He has called for the 13th General Election to be held early next year. Although, the public perception is that Prime Minister Najib Razak and his deputy Muhyiddin too want the GE-13 to be held early next year after a slew of election goodies were announced in October, nothing could be further than the truth.

The three men are locked in a power struggle at UMNO, and each is playing a 'deep' game of his own in a bid to keep the other at bay. Despite the advantage of incumbency, a stodgy Najib has been unable to show a strong and decisive hand. Muhyiddin and especially Mahathir have been able to steal a march over him.

After correctly anticipating a political turmoil in UMNO and monitoring it for months, Mahathir is now confident of making his move; the 'crack' is finally big enough now. This is the moment he has been waiting for; let it crack a little bit more, then move in as the King maker, wield his power and once again become the hero that saveS UMNO.

As Malaysians know by now, what Mahathir wants, he gets. Nonetheless, in this particular situation, Mahathir will not let the crack grow bigger because that would be a total disaster for UMNO and while a weakened and pliable UMNO fits in with his plan, he does not want a completely washed-out and devastated party.

The power triangle

Mahathir knows more about both Prime Minister Najib Razak and his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin than Najib and Muhyiddin know about each other. Najib is the current Umno president while Muhyiddin is the deputy president. Mahathir also has more clout than either of the men, whereas neither Najib nor Muhyiddin really know Mahathir.

All this while, Mahathir has held the upper hand and unless Muhyiddin and Najib consolidate their effort, they will be beaten by the 86-year-old to the finishing post. However, Mahathir would never let this happen. And this is why, Malaysians have been treated to so many political manoeuvres from all three men. Their efforts to win and trump each other have confused everyone, including their supporters.

Unfortunately, the squabbles of this power triangle have resulted in uncertainties amongst UMNO members at all levels. This is why Najib had to get the mandate to choose the “winnable” candidate for the 13th General Election at the recent UMNO general assembly.

Anyone who does not support Najib would now have a lot of explaining to do, and this is of course a bigger blow to Muhyiddin than Mahathir. Yet no one is really committing openly to anybody - an awful sign for Najib that he should admit is due to members rejecting him because of his own weak leadership. And this is opportunity for both Muhyiddin and Mahathir.

Mahathir and Muhyiddin have already begun garnering support from those who want some sort of security and need to align themselves with some powerful group or other. Neither Mahathir nor Muhyiddin need to have a 100% support. As long as there is enough leverage, they can bargain and that is the name of the game in UMNO politics.

However, for now, Muhyiddin would obviously still have to 'show' loyalty to Najib, although less so to Mahathir.

GE-13 and UMNO candidates

The mandate given to Najib to have the final choice of candidates for the GE-13 is based on the present UMNO office bearer set-up at all levels. Many have held the post for some time and are quite confident of being selected by Najib. However, there are several UMNO supreme council members that Najib may want to dump. This is now his prerogative to do so.

The infighting in UMNO, which can’t be avoided, is at its peak now and one by one the names of several leaders to be dropped have leaked out but none have been confirmed yet.

By deliberately calling for the GE-13 to be held early, Mahathir is signalling he wants the bickering to stop quickly and to get the list of the “winnable” candidates out into the open as soon as possible.

Ostensibly, this is to ensure that UMNO-BN has enough time to prepare for GE-13, which however will be held as late as possible. Or at least until the political climate improves, the impact of Anwar’s Sodomy II and near-certain jailing fades and the economy is a bit better - enough for the rakyat (populace) to feel some difference.

However, the RM500 cash assistance to lower-income families being distributed now until January 2012 may lose its impact if GE-13 is held later rather than sooner. But Najib, with his blase attitude towards public money, wouldn't care about this. Mahathir though is watching closely and will initiate his next move after monitoring the public reaction.

The “winnable” list

In the past, last-minute choice of candidates resulted in dissatisfaction amongst UMNO members, especially the party workers and this led to the disastrous GE-12 results. Mahathir wants to prevent this from happening and to make sure there is no repeat.

However having the GE-13 as late as possible is to Najib's best advantage, simply because his choice of candidates will not be challenged openly which he will claim could be disastrous for UMNO.

Actually, Najib already has his list of candidates which is a closely guarded secret, perhaps known only to his wife Rosmah Mansor. His closest aides know that he has already made up his mind but none know the full list.

So another reason why Mahathir asked for an early GE-13 is because he wants to know who Najib has decided on. Mahathir wants to make sure he has his people on board.

The mandate given by the UMNO assembly appears to be unfair, since Najib will only choose his people - leaving Mahathir and Muhyiddin at his mercy. But the reality is, neither Mahathir or Muhyiddin will let Najib have his way so easily. Hence, the mother of all battles is predicted for UMNO as GE-13 and its internal polls near.

After knowing Najib's list, Mahathir will make the next move. This is why he needs to know now as time is not on his side. Muhyiddin on the other hand is the underdog and he is still waiting for the moment to come for his turn to participate actively in this power play. He too is eager to know who is in the list!

With so much pressure ion Najib, chances are high he will have to give in or make a counter move to appease his two biggest rivals. Indeed, time is not on UMNO’s side. All eyes are now on Najib's list.

Malaysia Chronicle