Boycott Kuala Besut?No time for political COWARDICE in Pakatan altho Umno will go all out!

Based on UMNO's performance in the past two state elections, the Kuala Besut state seat looks a sure win for Prime Minister Najib Razak's party. Many political observers agree that there won’t be a hung state assembly, which would be the case should UMNO lose the seat to PAS.

Still UMNO is not looking at this by-election as a ‘sure win’ but rather a ‘must win’ because it knows it cannot afford to lose Kuala Besut. To the seat would not only be a slap on Najib's face but it would trigger a chain reaction of turmoil in UMNO. All hell would break lose.

Current Terengganu Mentri Besar Ahmad Said already has a problem distinguishing between UMNO supporters and Pakatan Rakyat supporters in his state. Should Kuala Besut fall to PAS, it would mean a total rejection of UMNO’s policies in Terengganu as well as in the rest of the country.

Najib’s policies would be viewed as having backfired and his post as the UMNO president would be even more precarious than it already is. And if Najib is toppled as UMNO president, then Malaysia would have a new prime minister.

Opposition must not be cowardly or selfish

No doubt, UMNO and the BN coalition it leads would still rule the country but the political dynamics would have changed, and drastically! There would be a new Malay leader at the helm, with his policies unknown and untested.

Will he be able to gain the acceptance of the people? How would the non-Malays react to him. The flux and uncertain situation would also present an opportunity for the Opposition to gain further ground in the key Malay electorate.

This is why although DAP says it is futile to contest because the Terengganu state Speaker has the final vote on who forms the state government in the event of a hung state assembly, the Opposition would be foolish not to contest.

To give UMNO a walkaway as suggested by the DAP would be stupid and short-sighted, benefiting no one except UMNO. It is not surprising that Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim has lamented that there are UMNO voices at work in the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, which won 89 seats in the May 5 general election versus the 133 by the UMNO-BN.

As the incumbent in Kuala Besut, all the pressure is on UMNO, while Pakatan can only try their best. What is there to lose! The Election Commission, under fire for helping Najib and UMNO to cheat during the May 5 election, is already under pressure to resign.

The Opposition's protests against the EC chief and deputy chief must continue. There is simply no logic in calling for PAS to boycott the Kuala Besut by-election just because the EC duo are too thick-skinned to quit - yet!

In the meantime, the Black 505 rallies must all the more be intensified to ensure the EC stays on its toes and the Terengganu voters are made aware that they may well be robbed of their wishes if they continue to blindly vote for the UMNO-BN.

There really is no place for cowardice or selfishness in Malaysian politics at this stage of the nation's development.

UMNO pyramid: How Perak was 'purposely' lost

Within the UMNO pyramid of power, the real and greatest pressure will be on Ahmad Said and Najib because internal rivals vying for the top two UMNO posts could sabotage this by-election.

The failure to defend Kuala Besut would provide the excuse to 'cold-storage' Ahmad Said and held up as the key reason for UMNO grassroots why they must not re-elect Najib but seek a new leader who can revitalize and take the party back to its golden-olden 'glory days'.

Is such sabotage too fanciful? Such a tactic has been used before in UMNO and many insiders are only too willing to point out that a similar ruse was used to oust Abdullah Badawi so that Najib could take over the country's top post.

In the 2008 general election, according to these insiders, UMNO "purposely" lost Perak, dealing the final blow to Badawi. Less than a year later, like a hero, Najib executed a coup to take back Perak.

The same method could be used to force Najib to resign. But this time around, Najib is only too aware of this trick and it won't be so easy to use the same modus operandi again! Even so, Najib cannot rest assured that he will be able to retain Kuala Besut.

Money-seeding and an unforgettable Raya for Kuala Besut

However, the people in Kuala Besut can rest assured that they will emerge the biggest winners.

In store for them will be super-exceptional windfalls in various forms from the Najib administration as he tries to guarantee a win for UMNO. According to his critics, if possible, Najib would not hesitate to do ‘ money seeding’ over the whole of the Kuala Besut constituency and its bordering areas so that money would rain down on the folk to make them happy with UMNO, just like ‘seeding rain’ to douse the haze and keep the complaints from the public in check.

If possible UMNO may even turn the small town with just one narrow road passing through it into a bustling showpiece of all sorts of social and commercial activities. So this is the time for the residents there to demand, demand and demand. For sure, UMNO or more accurately, Najib would grant all their wishes. More schools, suraus, 1Malaysia clinics, 1Malaysia shops and so forth whether necessary, feasible or not, would be promised without blinking an eye.

Hari Raya this year in Kuala Besut will be truly special and the people there will remember the 2013 by-election for a very long time indeed. Many ‘ground-breaking’ ceremonies will be held from now until election day. Of course, after that, whether there will be any further development to those 'ground-breaking' projects is doubtful.

UMNO's glamorous elite will swamp Kuala Besut

And for those who like 'ceramah' (political rallies), UMNO will not be depending too much on holding gatherings or giving speeches because not many people will attend these kinds of gatherings if organized by UMNO. The party is not good on the ground, and unlike the PKR and PAS-organized Black 505 rallies, cannot mobilize the crowds to come.

However, UMNO will rely on its forte - the 'rent-a-crowd’ gatherings complete with free refreshments, food, door gifts, free bags of rice, milk, school bags, and so forth. In these type of functions, UMNO is a proven expert! So expect such functions to be held and as usual all the school teachers and government servants will be forced to attend especially when Najib and other top UMNO leaders wind their way down to Kuala Besut to make boring speeches on why UMNO must win or Malays will become second-grade citizens to the Chinese!

For a while, Kuala Besut will be the focus point of all top UMNO leaders just like Putrajaya was during the 13th general election. You see, UMNO created the Putrajaya constituency of just 15,000-odd voters to ensure that it will continue to stay as a 'permanent fixture of victory' in every general election.

Thus, when Husam Musa contested there, it sent shivers down the spine of UMNO leaders because if it had lost Putrajaya, that would have dealt the final psychological blow to UMNO's political dominance over the Malays. The death knell would truly sound for strongmen like former finance minister Daim Zainuddin and his mentor Mahathir Mohamad who are dependent on UMNO's political health to keep their family fortunes safe from investigation. So vital was Putrajaya and the 13th general election as a whole that both Daim and Mahathir put aside their differences to ensure that Ku Nan and Najib won.

Using Kuala Besut to kick out Najib

Of course, the overriding factor is now the UMNO party election and there is the possibility that Mahathir may use Kuala Besut to kick Najib out!

At the federal level, UMNO-BN would still hold 133 seats versus Pakatan's 89 although the Terengganu state assembly would be split down the line at 16 seats apiece for UMNO-BN and Pakatan if UMNO lost. Yes, the political equation in the country may turn chaotic but since when has risk ever stopped the ruthless Mahathir.

The special branch of police specializing on elections will also be very busy, canvassing the Kuala Besut area for all possible threats against UMNO and Najib, just like the US secret service preparing a site for a visit from President Obama.

Therefore those in UMNO not working for the Najib camp will have to be extra careful when they canvass for support in Kuala Besut and try not to be too obvious. Of course, this would be a difficult task and UMNO folk in Terengganu, already in factions, will become even more suspicious of each other. But they are used to this sort of infighting in UMNO - sabotage, back stabbing, jealousy and playing double agents are almost like a second nature to many!

So, Pakatan - especially PAS - can rest assured that those who are against Najib will help the Opposition candidate win, something like what had happened in the Sepang parliamentary seat which had been contested by UMNO's Mohd Zin, The UMNO leader was eventually defeated by PAS lawyer Hanipa Maidin, with the help of UMNO people who did not want Mohd Zin to win.

EC on standby

Last but not least, Najib will surely try to have the Election Commission in a state of readiness to ensure UMNO wins. From all that has been reported, the EC apparently has all the tricks ready and 'phantom' or illegal voters will be on standby. Even the duplicate ballot boxes with pre-ticked ballot papers will be in place ready to be shipped out to replace those suspected of containing more ballot favoring the Pakatan.

The EC has been accused of having perfected this 'exchange' routine using unmarked vehicles and trained non-EC personnel, as can be watched on YouTube. Even the 'deadly' power blackout at the polling center just before the winner is declared cannot be ruled out! No surprises if the winner turns out to be from UMNO even if the Opposition candidate had been leading just a second before the power 'blackout'.

As for Malaysia's controversial indelible ink, which the Minister in the Prime Minister's Office has a tad reluctantly confirmed contained little more than food-colouring, will be trotted out and put on standby. Malaysia Boleh!

Malaysia Chronicle