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Thursday, July 31, 2014

Snap polls in Selangor? Don't even think it - Tony warns treacherous PAS it risks being WIPED OUT ENTIRELY

Snap polls in S'gor? Don't even think it - Tony warns treacherous PAS it risks being WIPED OUT ENTIRELY
In the event of a snap poll in Selangor, all Pakatan Rakyat parties will incur significant losses but PAS risks being wiped out entirely from the state
The protracted and contentious Menteri Besar crisis in Selangor has resulted in massive loss of confidence for the Pakatan Rakyat coalition. As evidenced by various independent surveys and our own feedback on the ground, our voters and supporters are dismayed and even outraged by our inability to be decisive in this issue.
If DAP and PKR want to replace Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, while PAS is adamant to have him retained with the tacit support from UMNO, then the current state executive council will no longer be able to function while the state assembly will be practically split down the middle with no clear majorities. Under such circumstances, Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim will likely have his request to hold snap elections in Selangor consented by the Selangor Sultan.
If events do unfold as such, then there will be only losers for all Pakatan Rakyat component parties. We will be forced to incur significant losses, but no party will be suffer more damage than PAS.
MB Khalid
If both PKR and DAP were to suffer a 3% and 10% drop in Malay and non-Malay votes respectively, we will suffer a combined loss of 7 seats out of 30 contested. They are Batu Tiga, Ijok, Kota Anggerik, Taman Medan and Pelabuhan Kelang for PKR, Kuala Kubu Baru and Sg Pelek for DAP. This will leave PKR and DAP with 10 and 13 seats respectively.
However, even in the most optimistic scenario where there is inconceivably no drop in Malay support for PAS, coupled with only a 15% drop in non-Malay support, the party will lose 7 of the 15 seats won in the last General Election. These most vulnerable seats are Sabak, Gombak Setia, Dusun Tua, Selat Klang, Sijangkang, Morib and Tanjong Sepat.
Should non-Malay vote drop 25% which is more than likely – given the controversies involving PAS preceding the election, then PAS will also lose Taman Templer, Hulu Kelang, Lembah Jaya, Seri Serdang and Paya Jaras, leaving them with only 3 seats in the state assembly.
Even these 3 seats - Chempaka, Bangi and Meru are not safe. Should Malay votes decline by a mere 5% while non-Malay votes drop by 30%, PAS will be completely wiped out in the state of Selangor.
As anyone can see from the above scenarios, it will be very unlikely for Pakatan Rakyat – if the coalition still exists in the snap election – to retain power in the state. The biggest winner will be UMNO, returning with up to 30 seats in the State Assembly.
In summary, PAS’s insistence to support Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim will inevitably lead to a snap election which will only cause PAS to lose most, if not all of their hard-won seats, and in all likelihood hand Selangor back to UMNO on a silver platter.
Nik Aziz Mat
We hope that our comrades in PAS will be able to fully come on board the spirit of the coalition, for us to jointly deliver our Pakatan principles and promises to the rakyat of Selangor and prevent the aspirations of the people from being snuffed out before it has a chance of being realised.
Tony Pua is the MP for PJ Utara

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