Umno yesterday decided to name its vice-president Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who is the current prime minister, as the party’s choice to continue leading Putrajaya should they manage to form the majority in the 15th general election.
A political analyst believes the decision was a smart move by Umno to secure its position in the federal government, including in the event that it falls short of MPs to form a government on its own.
Former Universiti Teknologi Malaysia lecturer Azmi Hassan said the current political situation shows that Umno might need other parties outside its Barisan Nasional circle to get enough numbers in the Dewan Rakyat.
“There is a high possibility that in the event Umno (and BN) gets to form a government, they are not the only party that will be a part of it. They may need partners, such as GPS from Sarawak, and parties from Sabah.
“The same case may be in the peninsula too. So, we can see that Ismail Sabri (above) is someone who can be accepted by all levels or all parties.
“We can see that he was chosen by Umno because Ismail Sabri is someone who also can be accepted by Bersatu, PAS and also the two camps in Umno.
“From the way I see it, given the current political situation, Ismail Sabri will become the prime minister (again) after GE15,” he said.
According to Azmi, who is a senior fellow at Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, Umno’s alliance with PAS or Bersatu, or both, can happen again post-GE15, especially if these two parties are needed to make up the numbers.
Yesterday, Umno secretary-general Ahmad Maslan announced the party Supreme Council's decision to propose Ismail Sabri as their prime minister candidate in the upcoming general polls.
Forcing GE15
However, two other analysts who spoke to Malaysiakini had their reservations about the PM candidate announcement.
James Chin, who is a professor of Asian studies at University of Tasmania, said it is unlikely for Ismail Sabri to be given the job unless he goes along with party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Pekan MP Najib Razak.
“I don’t think Ismail Sabri will be the prime minister after the election, unless he agrees to give in to what Najib and Zahid... to what all the court cluster wants,” he said, referring to a group of Umno leaders who are facing criminal trials in court.
The academician was referring to the alleged intention of certain Umno leaders to get their criminal cases dropped by winning GE15.
“If he goes along, then they may consider him, but it is highly unlikely,” Chin added.
Chin also pointed out that such political promises, or agreements, cannot be enforced and cited former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad's agreement to transfer power to opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim as an example.
According to Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun, the main reason that Umno leadership named Ismail Sabri was to get him to dissolve Parliament in the coming months.
He also believed that what happened after the Johor state election in March could be repeated in GE15.
“(They are) likely replicating the Johor menteri besar saga on a national level, although the pretext may or may not be similar. The main point is to corner him into rushing an election,” he said.
Meanwhile, another analyst, Awang Azman Awan Pawi of Universiti Malaya concurred, saying that while Umno can name its candidate for prime minister, the final say would be with the Agong.
“Umno can name anyone as its candidate for PM, but the power lies in the hand and at the discretion of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong.”
On Umno’s decision to name Ismail Sabri, Awang Azman believed that it was made to prevent a further split in the party.
This, he stressed, was important in determining whether Umno wins the next general election or otherwise. - Mkini
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