Losing GE15 could spell PH’s end, warns analyst

 

After its poor showing in recent state polls, voters will give up on Pakatan Harapan in its present form if it loses in the upcoming general election, says analyst James Chin.

PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan’s loss in the next general election could be its death knell, an analyst has warned.

James Chin of the University of Tasmania told FMT he believed voters would give up on the opposition coalition in its present form if it were to lose again after being defeated in the Melaka, Sarawak and Johor state polls.

“GE15 is really a survival game for PH, rather than a springboard,” he said in a comment on PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli’s call for the coalition to be realistic about its chances.

In a recent statement, Rafizi also said it would be better for PKR and PH to settle for remaining in opposition “with dignity” than to trumpet their optimism about winning in GE15.

James Chin.

Chin agreed that PH needed to be realistic, but also said there was no point in contesting if it did not plan to win.

“No political party contests in an election to lose,” he said.

For PH to emerge victorious in the next GE, it must secure the rural Malay votes, Chin said, adding that it was one of the factors that enabled it to take Putrajaya in the last nationwide polls.

Bersatu, then under Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s leadership and a member of PH, won one-third of the rural Malay seats in the 14th general election.

If PH could not replicate this feat in GE15, it would have “no chance of winning” since rural Malay constituencies made up close to 100 seats in the Dewan Rakyat, Chin said.

Jeniri Amir.

Another analyst, Council of Professors fellow Jeniri Amir, said Rafizi was trying to be pragmatic and looking at PH’s performance in the three state elections, changes in the country’s political landscape and the public’s sentiments.

He said it was important for PH to change its political approach by moving beyond what he called “stale issues” such as 1MDB and Najib Razak.

He also said the biggest challenge for the opposition was to be united.

“If the blocs cannot work together, it’s going to be tough to challenge BN because once there is no unity, there are going to be all kinds of multi-cornered fights, which will be an advantage to BN, as seen in the state elections.” - FMT