MOH: Excess mortality since 2020 lower than US, UK

 

Malaysia has recorded a lower excess mortality rate throughout the pandemic, from March 2020 up until December 2021, when compared to many developed countries.

According to a study by the Health Ministry dubbed the "Excess Mortality During Covid-19 Pandemic in Malaysia", the country had an excess mortality rate of 0.55 percent compared to 13.84 percent in Britain and 18.62 percent in the United States.

Malaysia's excess mortality during that period was also lower than Spain, Italy, the Philippines and Brazil.

Lead researcher Dr G Shubash Shander said during the first phase of the pandemic - defined as March 2020 to June 2021 - the number of deaths was 19,099 fewer than expected compared to pre-pandemic times.

He said while the cause of this warranted further study, the preliminary analysis indicated that there was a reduction in deaths due to non-communicable diseases (NCD), possibly due to a change in lifestyle - namely eating and health habits, the use of face masks and lack of social interaction.

However, the study revealed that there was excess mortality of 27,013 deaths during phase two of the pandemic - from July 2021 to December 2021 - which was attributed to the Covid-19 Delta variant.

Therefore, the net excess mortality during this period was 7,914 excess mortality, which is 0.55 percent more than what would have been expected.

Excess mortality rate refers to the difference between an actual number of deaths, compared with the expected number of deaths, in a population, for a specific time period.

Since the deaths are counted regardless of their cause, the metric is often used as a gauge for the health burden of the Covid-19 pandemic including deaths due to complications that follow the initial infection, and deteriorating quality of care due to an overburdened healthcare system.

However, excess mortality studies do not capture changes and onset of diseases that do not quickly manifest in deaths; and other ways a disease may affect one’s life such as disability, mental health, socio-economics, social determinants of health and quality of life.

Malaysia's estimation of excess mortality was conducted by a team of local researchers under the Health Ministry, led by individuals from the Centre for Burden of Disease Research, Institute for Public Health, National Institutes of Health Malaysia.

SOPs vs full lockdowns

Health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said Malaysia's low excess mortality compared to other countries indicates its response to the Covid-19 pandemic was effective.

Health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah

"What we're seeing is that it is important to comply with the standard operating procedures, instead of full lockdowns.

"During the spike in Covid-19 cases of the Delta variant, we had increased vaccination coverage in Klang Valley," he said during an online briefing with the media.

During the briefing, Shubash stressed that Malaysia's data on excess mortality was in accordance with the World Health Organisation's (WHO) definition.

Excess mortality in Malaysia during the study period was only marginally higher than what was predicted by WHO's model.

The government’s estimate is much higher than The Economist’s estimate of 2,510 excess deaths in Malaysia up to Sept 30, 2021, but much lower than the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) estimate of 48,100 excess deaths up to Dec 31, 2021.

Shubash said the ministry is investigating the reason for the discrepancy between its estimate and the IHME estimate.

Excess mortality among men, said Shubash, was much higher than predicted while there were fewer deaths among women.

Meanwhile, Shubash said there was a much higher prevalence of excess mortality among Malays while the reverse is true for Chinese and Indians.

During the study period, there were 11,158 deaths among Malays. However, there the mortality among Chinese was 4,054 fewer than expected and for Indians, it was 565.

Shubash said the risk of non-communicable diseases among the Chinese community was the lowest among the three ethnic groups. - Mkini