Of crouching tigers and hidden dragons

 

Announcements by political parties need to be taken with a grain of salt in Malaysia’s currently volatile political scene.

By PHILIP GOLINGAI

IT’S a trap.

That was my first thought when I heard that Umno had made a unanimous decision on Thursday night to confirm Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob as the party’s prime minister candidate for the 15th General Election (GE15).

There’s no guarantee that Ismail Sabri will become prime minister if the party and its coalition, Barisan Nasional, win big in GE15.

There’s precedent for this.

In the run-up to the Johor state elections, incumbent mentri besar and state Umno chief Datuk Seri Hasni Mohammad was presented as the party’s poster boy. However, after Barisan won, Machap assemblyman Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi became Mentri Besar.

Arguably, it was a classic case of bait-and-switch. It seems like the idea was to lure the Prime Minister to seek bubar (dissolution of Parliament) as soon as possible.

When met on the sidelines of an Umno breaking fast event held after a supreme council meeting recently, Umno supreme council member Datuk Seri Tajuddin Abdul Rahman said there was no guarantee that Umno vice-president Ismail Sabri could stay on as Prime Minister after the general election despite being Umno’s choice for GE15.

“Look at the poster boy in Johor. Who was it? It was Hasni. What happened? We pray for the best. We don’t want to have bad thoughts,” the Pasir Salak MP said.

He continued: “In politics, a day after the election, some people may aspire to be the prime minister. This can happen.

“So I cautioned during the meeting that there is no guarantee. But if there is a guarantee, never mind, as I’ve been a staunch supporter of Ismail Sabri from the beginning,” he said.

Thursday’s Umno supreme council meeting, chaired by party president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, also decided that the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Ismail Sabri’s government and leading Opposition bloc Pakatan Harapan should not be continued after its July 31 deadline.

Among the points in the MOU signed last September was that Parliament cannot be dissolved before July 31.

These two big decisions give the impression that GE15 will be held soon. Adding to that is the fact that DAP leadership has instructed party election machinery be made ready by August to face a possible dissolution of Parliament.

But Malaysian politics is like a volatile stock market.

“Last week, there was a feel that it would be bubar. This week looks like bubar is only next year. Next week, we don’t know what the mood will be. It is like the stock market,” a well-informed politician told me last week.

There’s no guarantee that Ismail Sabri will be inspired to call for GE15 soon even though Umno named him as its PM candidate. And there is no guarantee that the MOU will not be extended even though Umno has said it will not be.

At a press conference on Friday, the Prime Minister did not give a definite “yes” to whether he would heed that particular decision made by his party’s supreme council.

Here’s an excerpt (translated to English) of the transcript from the press conference:

“Is this an indication that GE15 is close?” a journalist asked.

“Not known yet,” said the Prime Minister.

“(Inaudible) how about the MOU with the Opposition?”

“Last night, a decision was made that until July 31. And until last night, the Umno supreme council said there was no need to continue the MOU. That is the decision up to now. Whatever, we wait until after July 31,” said the Bera MP.

“Will the government follow the Umno supreme council decision?” the journalist asked.

“It is supposed that the supreme council decision is usually followed. However, perhaps in July, anything can happen – there might be changes – and I might need to bring back the decision to the supreme council,” said Ismail Sabri.

“As Umno’s vice-president, I am certainly bound by the supreme council’s decision. However, even though the decision is no continuation after July 31, but now it is only April, and we wait. And if nothing else happens, then the decision will be fulfilled. But if there is a new development, the supreme council will discuss.”

The key takeaway: Anything can happen between now and July 31.

In the Umno war of attrition over the prime minister’s position – yes, it is still ongoing no matter the announcements made – the politician who can delay, delay and delay a crucial decision might win.

It looks like Team Zahid, led by Umno’s president, wants GE15 as soon as possible. In contrast, Team Ismail Sabri, led by Umno’s vice-president, wants to delay the general elections until next year.

Before GE14 in 2018, the post of prime minister and Umno president was held by the same person. But now we have a situation in which the party’s highest leader does not hold the country’s highest political post. Now, what the Umno president wants is not necessarily what the Prime Minister wants.

In the war of attrition, the Umno president can wield the power of his party post while the Prime Minister has institutional power. Also, it is the Prime Minister and not the Umno president who can decide when to seek the consent of the King to dissolve Parliament.

“DSIS is like a Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” a Barisan strategist (who did not want to be identified) texted me on Friday, using an acronym for Ismail Sabri’s title.

He was referring to the Ang Lee movie with a title that literally translates the Chinese idiom describing a place or situation that is full of unnoticed masters. It is from a line in a poem by the ancient Chinese poet Yu Xin (513-581): “Behind the rock in the dark probably hides a tiger / And the coiling giant root resembles a crouching dragon.”

“DSIS as PM was not even welcomed, as Umno supporters shouted ‘bubar’ at him as he entered the Umno command centre after Barisan won the Johor polls. Zahid snubbed DSIS on victory night when he dragged [Datuk Seri Najib Razak] out in front and attributed the win to ‘Bossku’ while ignoring DSIS on stage, who was overshadowed,” pointed out the strategist.

However, the Prime Minister hit back during the Umno Annual General Meeting (AGM) in March using his crouching tiger, hidden dragon skills -- oratory.

“Watch his spirited speech that won over a presumably hostile audience on the closing day of the Umno AGM. It gained a standing ovation, and the bubar call was no longer uttered,” the strategist said.

“Zahid’s final speech immediately after that apparently showed him changing his tune when he praised DSIS and told Tok Mat (Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan) to wait for GE16.

“The latest Umno supreme council announcement seems to put DSIS in a stronger position.”

Don’t underestimate the crouching tiger or hidden dragon. - Star