While the recently concluded Unity Government National Convention was a showcase of stability for the current administration, analysts opined that the real test will come with the looming state elections.
Speaking to KiniTV, the experts said acceptance among the grassroots of coalition parties could be further tested in the ongoing seat negotiations - a process deemed to be more difficult than it appears to be, or as portrayed by the top brass.
Citing DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke’s appearance and even delivering a speech in his former enemy’s lair at the Kuala Lumpur World Trade Centre, political analyst Dr Azmi Hassan is of the view that Umno’s top leaders would have no problem with it.
However, the same cannot be said on the ground.
“For the time being, it (the acceptance) is not there yet at the grassroots level. For instance, the ketua kampung and the village development committee.
“The cooperation between Umno and DAP especially, although they are in the same government, it’s still not there yet. At the grassroots level, it’s still questionable,” the geostrategy expert said.
Sharing the same sentiment is Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Prof Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani.
Based on his observations, Azizuddin said it would take time for the “super grand coalition” to convince its grassroots and supporters.
He did not mince his words when he said that it was “unfortunate” when no single coalition could form the federal government after the 15th general election (GE15), which resulted in the coalition government today.
“Why I say it’s unfortunate is because all these parties are ready to have their own party policy, particularly to form the government.
“But now they have formed a much bigger coalition in order to form the government and also the most bizarre thing - to bring stability to our politics and the government.
“So, now they showcase to the world that the government is stable, even though they have 19 parties together,” he said.
Seat negotiations: make or break
Meanwhile, both analysts agreed that seat negotiations for the state polls could either make or break the Anwar Ibrahim-led coalition government.
Azmi highlighted Pakatan Harapan-held states which are due to hold state elections this year - Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan - saying it would be a challenge to allocate seats between the parties smoothly.
“I think it’s a big issue, it all depends on seat allocation. Let’s take a very extreme example, is DAP going to give some of the state seats to Umno or BN in Penang?
“But it is not so much (of a problem) in (PAS-dominated) Kelantan, Terengganu, and Kedah as they are easier states to allocate seats.”
Azizuddin said there is no time to waste in discussions pertaining to seat allocations, saying the people may be left disappointed if problems that arose in the early stages are left unresolved.
“If they make (the decisions and wait) until the end, that concerns me, because they have no time to reconcile the problem with the people at the grassroots level. So that’s why they need to set it early,” he stressed.
However, both experts expressed confidence that Harapan and BN stand a chance to secure a comfortable victory even in PAS-held Kedah if the component parties in the ruling government could cooperate in seat negotiations as well as assuring their voters and grassroots.
“If you look at the GE15 statistics, the combination of Harapan-BN votes is way ahead of Bersatu-PAS. I think (that’s the case) in most Harapan states and some in Kedah.
“I would say the convincing factor is that both Harapan and BN should win this particular (state) election comfortably, not in Kelantan or Terengganu, but in Kedah. It all depends on Malay votes,” Azmi said.
The Sanusi factor
Based on his observations on the ground in Kedah, Azizudin said the people of the northern state want to be in good kinship with Putrajaya.
However, with Prime Minister Anwar’s defamation suit against Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor for allegedly insinuating that he was immoral, the people are of the view that Sanusi’s continuous reign may spell trouble for the state.
“So that’s very important for them (coalition government) to actually have a chance to win in Kedah.”
Umno’s uphill ‘Allah’ battle
Although Anwar credited the existence of the current coalition government to Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and the party’s MPs, Azmi said the task of securing Malay votes could prove to be an uphill battle for the Malay nationalist party.
“The ‘Allah’ issue has been a great issue and PAS had jumped on it, saying Umno is incompetent in handling this particular issue although they are part of (the federal) government.
“I guess the matter now is how strong is Umno in order to attract Malay votes. But if you take the ‘kalimah Allah’ issue into consideration, Umno is facing a lot of issues from the Malay voters.”
This comes after Putrajaya’s decision to withdraw its appeal against a High Court decision in 2021, which allowed the term “Allah” in non-Muslim contexts.
On March 10, 2021, the High Court in Kuala Lumpur allowed a judicial review by Jill Ireland, a Melanau Christian, who sought a declaration that she has the right to use the word “Allah” for religious and educational purposes.
The government initially appealed against the decision but gave notice on April 18 this year that it would no longer pursue it.
However, according to Azizuddin, it’s not solely on Umno’s shoulders to be a strong Malay party. Instead, it requires a “full package” that represents a multiracial Malaysia.
“Because, for me, in order to survive as a nation, we need the collaboration of all political parties to be together and have one voice, uphold one main policy we have today that is Malaysia Madani. So, that’s why Anwar is the key.
“Sometimes we need to have a Chinese-based or even a Chinese-dominated party within the government, we can’t rely on MCA or Gerakan. So DAP is the strongest party there.
“So that’s why I think it’s very important for PKR to be the main party, but it must be glued together with BN, led by - for example - Umno, but DAP must be in there,” he asserted.
Both analysts stressed the importance for the coalition government to be mature in handling internal conflicts, warning against “shooting among each other”.
“If they continue fighting within themselves, then you can see a break. I don’t see a break within this period. Even though they’re fighting over several issues, they still feel comfortable (being in the government).
“They want to serve the people and to show that they’re, sort of, the most worthy,” Azizudin said.
Azmi expressed hopes for the coalition government to serve its full term, saying “This is the government where I see the real Malaysia, not one in West Malaysia, but including Sabah and Sarawak.
“This situation is crucial for the federal government to succeed in the upcoming state elections.” - Mkini
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