The pending announcement of the Pardons Board’s decision on whether or not to free Najib Abdul Razak will be bad news for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR) senior fellow Azmi Hassan said regardless of whether the former prime minister is pardoned or not, Anwar will face backlash.
He said if the former Pekan MP received a pardon, Anwar would be praised by Umno supporters.
As Najib still has some influence in the party, Azmi said the former Umno president’s pardon will certainly make party grassroots happy especially if he continues his political career.
“If he remains active in the (political) scene, it would certainly strengthen the party and they will gain more trust from the Malay and Muslim voters.
“But Pakatan Harapan voters will blame Anwar and they wouldn’t be comfortable working with Umno again,” he told Malaysiakini.
Likewise, University of Tasmania political scientist James Chin believed a pardon would lead to the government losing the confidence of their urban supporters who do not want to see Najib freed.
“His pardon will also impact Malaysia’s reputation. Malaysia is recovering from 1MDB and with Najib’s pardon, people would think the government is not serious about corruption,” he added.
However, he said though there might be protests against Najib’s pardon, they would be limited due to the pardon being under the Agong’s prerogative.
“Some Malay groups would probably do some protest, but it wouldn’t be much,” he said.
As for whether the federal government itself would remain intact, Azmi believed the status quo would remain.
This is as both Harapan and Umno have concluded that they need each other as political allies, he said.
Win-win situation
Meanwhile, in the event the Pardons Board reduces Najib’s prison sentence instead of granting a pardon, Chin believed the damage among Harapan voters would be minimal.
“The urban crowd will be angry, but it will just be for a little while,” he said.
Azmi, meanwhile, believed it would be a win-win situation for everyone if Najib was granted a reduction to six years.
He said Anwar’s voters would not be angry because Najib would still be in prison while Umno supporters would be happy as Najib would have fewer years to serve with a possible early release for good behaviour.
However, Azmi said the response from Umno would not be pleasant if Najib’s pardon is rejected and his prison sentence maintained.
He said both Anwar and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi would be blamed if Najib did not receive a pardon.
“Zahid would probably be blamed for failing to convince Anwar of Najib’s pardon. He (Zahid) would be seen as trying to protect his position in the party,” he said.
Najib was locked up in Kajang Prison after being convicted in the RM42 million SRC International corruption case.
The 12-year imprisonment was meted out by the High Court - upheld by the Court of Appeal and Federal Court.
Najib is also on trial for other crimes, including four counts of abuse of power and 21 counts of money laundering involving RM2.27 billion from 1MDB.
Ex-cons can’t contest for 5 years
If and when Najib is released from prison, the question of whether he will rejoin frontline politics will depend on the circumstances of his freedom.
If he is pardoned, Najib is free to contest in elections immediately, unless of course he is convicted before an election is called.
However, if he is released after completing his prison sentence - reduced or otherwise - an electoral return will have to wait.
Ex-convicts are barred from standing in an election for five years after they are released.
Regardless of when he is allowed to contest, however, Universiti Malaya senior lecturer Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub believed a Najib comeback would be difficult to pull off.
He said Najib’s time had passed and Anwar’s image was more prominent than other political figures in the federal government.
“It is quite difficult for Najib to make a comeback, compared to Anwar who had great political momentum since 1998,” he said.
However, he did not dismiss the possibility of Najib serving as a backbencher in government if he is pardoned. - Mkini
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