Abrahamic Accords Kick In By Default.

The October 7th attack against Israel by the Hamas / Muslim Brotherhood was an attempt to derail the Abrahamic Accords from being cemented. Saudi Arabia was poised to also announce their joining the Abrahamic Accords.

The Abrahamic Accords would create peace treaties between the Arab countries and Israel (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Morocco aside from Egypt and Jordan). 

One of the suggestions of the Abrahamic Accords (it was stated during the presidency of Donald Trump) was that the West Bank would be "returned" to Jordan and the Gaza would be returned to Egypt. 

Historically the West Bank was ruled by the Jordanian kings (Emirate of Trans Jordan, Jordan etc). From 1948 until 1967 the West bank belonged fully to Jordan.

Likewise Gaza was ruled by Egypt or Egyptian governors (Ottoman and post Ottoman period). From 1948 until 1967 the Gaza belonged fully to Egypt.

This implies a permanent solution to the 'Palestinian' problem.

The October 7th attack did appear to derail the Abrahamic Accords, or so it seemed. But now with this missile and drone attack by Iran against Israel the Abrahamic Accords have come into play in full force even though Saudi Arabia and Jordan have not officially signed on yet.

It has now been confirmed that in Saturday's missile attack not only did Jordan completely open its airspace to the airforce's of Israel, US, UK and France but so did Saudi Arabia. More important than that both the Jordanian and Saudi Arabian airforces sent their own fighter jets to actively pursue and shoot down the Iranian drones and missiles.  

For the first time the militaries of Egypt, Jordan, Israel and Saudi Arabia were involved in joint military operations against a common enemy Iran. This is the new Middle East that is emerging

It is also becoming clear that Saturday's attack by Iran has failed very badly. Nothing was destroyed in Israel, no one died and unfortunately one seven year old Arab Bedouin girl was injured by debris from an Iranian missile that fell close to her home. Here is some news:

• Many Iranian Missiles Failed to Launch, Crashed U.S. Officials 
• midnight April 13, hundreds of drones launched from Iran, Iraq
• ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, rockets from Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon
• despite scale of operation, appears to be a tactical failure

• Roughly 50% failed to launch or crashed, 3 U.S. officials said.
• 115 to 130 ballistic missiles half of them failed in flight
• rest were intercepted successfully
• Iran’s attack a strategic miscalculation

• 99% of more than 330 weapons intercepted over Jordan, Iraq
• 185 drones, 110 surface-to-surface missiles, 36 cruise missiles
• minor damage occurred at Nevatim Airbase 
• 7-year-old Arab Bedouin girl seriously injured by destroyed rocket
  

• Tehran regime increasingly concerned about stability, failing economy
• violent oppression, increasing number of executions, internal dissent persists
• attack grave miscalculation by  Tehran
• US, West and Arab countries swiftly rallied to support Israel
• Most of Iranian projectiles intercepted by Israel, US, UK, France, Jordan
• Israel has array of long-range missiles, jets and drones, covert operations.
• Arab countries hoping for Israel’s severe response
• Tehran worried about nuclear program sites

The Iranians did a half hearted job and made serious tactical mistakes. They first sent up a swarm of about 150 to 200 slow flying drones (maximum speed between 150 - 180 km/hr) which all flew west towards Israel. Flying time was between 6 to 9 hours. The drones were easily detected by Israeli and American intelligence and warnings were immediately issued to Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the US, UK and France. Middle Eastern and western media were already reporting that Iranian drones were on the way towards Israel.

 

When the drones crossed over into Iraqi airspace Jordanian, Saudi Arabian and possibly Israeli and US airforce jets were already patrolling the skies and waiting for them. All the drones were shot down over Iraq and Jordan. None of the drones penetrated Israeli airspace.

 

Likewise all the cruise missiles were also shot down mostly over Jordanian territory. The cruise missiles had a flight time of TWO HOURS between Iran and Israel. Hence they were all easily detected.

 

The ballistic missiles had a flying time of eight minutes between Iran and Israel. They were also shot down except seven of them which were allowed to fall harmlessly in open areas. The Arrow 2 and 3 missile defense system can detect and determine the trajectory of the ballistic missiles as they fall through the sky.  If the terminal point is an open space with no threat of harm to people and buildings the missile is allowed to fall harmlessly. 

 

Debris from one ballistic missile which fell near the home of some Arab Bedouins seriously injured a seven year old Arab girl. 

 

 

"Amina, from the Bedouin town of Al-Fur'ah in southern Israel, is now in a critical condition after she was hit by shrapnel which fell on the roof of the family home at 2am, the Times of Israel reports.  The young girl's brother told Haaretz how she lost consciousness and was unresponsive. Her parents then rushed her by car to Arad, before she was taken to the Soroka Medical Centre in an ambulance". 

 

Despite shooting over 300 missiles and drones the Iranians did manage to harm one seven year old Arab Bedouin child.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.